Cost Of Peace

THERE is no definite figure but informed guesstimates put the money spent by the Indian Army  and paramilitary forces in Kashmir, including Siachen, at Rs 6 crore a day. That is Rs 2,190 crore a year, or about 6 per cent of the Rs 35,260 crore allocated for defence in the current budget. The real financial cost to the country, however, cannot easily be computed since both India and Pakistan have spent considerably on their defence because of the 'no war, no peace' situation which prevails along the borders.

The 13-year battle on the Siachen glacier costs the Army about Rs 1 crore a day. The cost of airlifting troops and sophisticated artillery to the glacier as well as providing supplies is no mean affair. And everytime the Bofors gun is fired, it costs Rs 15,000. The financial drain apart, over 2,000 soldiers have died at Siachen since 1984. The annual cost of deploying paramilitary forces in Jammu and Kashmir has been computed by Home Ministry sources at Rs 85 crore a month. Of this 65 to 70 per cent goes towards salaries. But the real cost of the Kashmir operations has been the extensive counterinsurgency operations. Researchers at the Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, Delhi, say the cost of controlling Kashmir could easily be Rs 6 crore a day. Casualties have been high in Kashmir. Figures tabled in Parliament puts the number of soldiers killed in Jammu and Kashmir since 1988 at 1,769.

Hostilities have sparked off an arms race, swelling defence budgets. In 1947, the defence budget was Rs 193.70 crore or 1.72 per cent of the GDP. This was scaled down to Rs 137 crore two years later since Nehru expected a period of peace. The first quantum leap was after the '62 Sino-India conflict. The defence allocation rose from Rs 293.60 crore in 1961-62 to Rs 485.30 crore in the next budget. This year's defence budget is Rs 6,000 crore more than last year's.

Defence analysts point out that credi -ble terms of peace alone can reduce defence spending. But with Pakistan suspected to have acquired nuclear capability, they feel that the defence budgets are unlikely to be cut. Even to keep it at the present level requires considerable political will in both nations.