Coalition Course?

ANTI-incumbency factor. That's the phrase everyone in Mizoram is using in the context of elections to the 40-member assembly in this tiny state, scheduled for November 25. The Opposition alliance of Mizo National Front (MNF) and the Mizo Peoples' Conference (MPC) is indeed banking upon the anti-incumbency factor to unseat the Congress, which has ruled the state under chief minister Lalthanhawla for two consecutive terms. "People are fed up with the Congress rule. They want a change and our alliance has provided them a strong alternative," says Lalhmingliana, MNF secretary. "We want to end the culture of corruption and nepotism ushered in by the Congress," adds an MPC office-bearer.

Lalthanhawla, who is once again leading the Congress campaign, does not see any merit in this argument: "The people have seen the functioning of non-Congress governments in the state and they are clearly not happy with what they got. On the other hand, whatever progress Mizoram has achieved so far, it is because of the Congress. So people will once again return us to power." The Congress also makes it a point to tell the people that leaders like Brig. T. Sailo of the MPC change their political affiliations in each election. Sailo, MPC president, was a Congress ally in the last elections. This time, he has formed an alliance with the MNF.

In reality, it is not smooth sailing for either of the combines and for the first time since Mizoram became a state in 1987, a 'hung' verdict in the 40-member assembly is being predicted. Injecting an element of uncertainty is a new political combine, the United Peoples' Party (UPP). A conglomeration of church elders, senior citizens, former bureaucrats and a breakaway faction of the MNF called the MNF(N), the UPP is hoping to repeat its success in the Lok Sabha elections early this year when its candidate won the lone Lok Sabha seat, defeating a Congressman in a close contest.

The UPP, backed by the Citizen's Common Forum, a moral watchdog, is selling the idea of a "new Mizo-ram". Explains a UPP spokesman: "We want development with a human face and development meant for all sections of society, not a select few as has happened under successive governments. We want a corruption-free Mizo society." To which a government employee retorts, "It is a utopian concept." Even the MNF-MPC combine pooh-poohs the UPP. "They call themselves apolitical and yet, they are fighting a political battle," points out an MPC worker.

The two Opposition combines are definitely giving the Congress top-brass sleepless nights. Lalthanhawla, in fact, admits that he is not sure of retaining the Serchip seat that has returned him four times. "The combined Opposition votes in my constituency are more than the number of Congress voters," he points out. What he need not spell out is that in a triangular contest, he is likely to scrape through. In a state where the highest number of voters in a constituency is 19,644 (the average number of voters in a seat is 11,000), a minor last-minute swing can change fortunes.

The Congress is hoping that its achievements and the fact that 10 new faces have been given tickets for the forthcoming polls will convince the electorate to vote the party back to power. In any case, the Congress would be favoured to lead any coalition that may be required to be formed in the post-poll scenario.

The party has also sought the services of a Calcutta-based Christian organisation to woo clergymen in the predominantly Christian state. Lalthanhawla, as shrewd a strategist as they come, has already got Sonia Gandhi, whose Roman Catholic antecedents are well-known, to address six rallies in different constituencies. "The response to her rallies was very encouraging despite this being a peak harvest season," Lalthanhawla told Outlook.

The real campaigning in Mizoram is dominated by personal contact and door-to-door campaigning by candidates, thanks to a stringent code of conduct prescribed by the Young Mizo Association and the Church. Under the code, which is scrupuously adhered to by all parties, excessive display of posters, banners and hoardings is banned. There is no overt display of wealth and attempts to woo voters with feasts and other such blandishments. All candidates are asked to refrain from personal attacks on opponents. As a result, elections in Mizoram are a rather subdued affair. And the Election Commission has nothing to do with it.