BIHAR
Total Seats: 54
1991 Position: 1
Prospects: Likely
to increase
BIHAR
Total Seats: 54
1991 Position: 1
Prospects: Likely
to increase
BIHAR heads the list of states which the Congress seems to have virtually given up on. But in the scramble for tickets in a party pulled by divergent forces, Union Urban Development Minister Jagannath Mishra seems to have gone one up over his rivals. He has managed to corner as many as 40 seats for his followers, leaving the rest for stalwarts like Sitaram Kesri, Ram Lakhan Singh Yadav and Tariq Anwar to split among themselves. Yadav andTariq Anwar are contesting from Arrah and Katihar, respectively. State party chief Sarfraz Ahmed, a Mishra follower, was given the party nomination to the state legislative council.
Among the few high command nominees contesting the polls is ex-chief minister S. N. Sinha (who is standing from Aurangabad). Otherwise, it was Mishra, and not Yadav—he defected from the Janata Dal to save the Rao Government in the crucial no-trust motion in July 1993—who managed to arm twist Rao. For a taste of the disunity, consider PCC general secretary Prem Chand Mishra's statement: "Jagannath Mishra is hell-bent on ensuring Laloo Yadav's victory."
With the Chief Minister and Janata Dal President all set to prove his might, Congress prospects look as bleak as they did in 1991, when the party ended up winning a lone seat in Begusarai. This time, Aurangabad and Katihar are among the seats where the Congress has better prospects, though Laloo has fielded Mufti Mohammad Syed in the latter. For Laloo, the real threat comes from the BJP-Samata Party combine and not the truncated Congress.
RAJASTHAN
Total Seats: 25
1991 Position: 14
Prospects: Likely to decrease
THIS is one of the states where the hawala scam could have a direct impact on the prospects of the Congress. With scamtainted leaders like Balram Jakhar and Buta Singh having been denied tickets and chief Ashok Gehlot facing sabotage PCC from Bhuvanesh Chaturvedi, minister of state in the Prime Minister's Office, the party may well end up minus a few of the 14 seats it won in 1991. Points out a PCC general secretary: "The Congress is disunited, and the BJP, with a chief minister like Bhairon Singh Shekhawat, is getting stronger by the day. The denial of a ticket to Jakhar will affect Jat votes in about six constituencies. And in another nine, the injustice meted out to Madhavrao Scindia by his frame-up in the hawala case will have its impact." These last-minute developments will also affect the campaign—many locally printed posters with portraits of these leaders will now have to be trashed.
Again, the Prime Minister turned down the recommendations of the PCC vis-a-vis candidates. The assessment of the state unit was that Jaswant Singh Yadav stood a better chance than former AICC general secretary Nawal Kishore Sharma in Alwar. Similarly, Sishram Maula, a former minister, was thought to be more suitable than Ayub Khan for the Jhunjhunu seat. But Yadav, denied a ticket by the high command, has gone over to the BJP and is pitted against Sharma himself. And Maula has switched to the Arjun Singh camp and is taking on Khan. In the Congress' own analysis, Rajesh Pilot's Dausa, Gehlot's Jodhpur and constituencies represented by Ram Niwas Mirdha and Nathuram Mirdha are among the half-a-dozen safe seats. In short, everything points to a bleaker prospect for the party this time.
UTTAR PRADESH
Total Seats: 85
1991 Position: 5
Prospects: Likely to remain same
WHAT could be more telling than the deserted look in the party office and the dearth of candidates seeking Congress tickets from the 85 Lok Sabha constituencies in Uttar Pradesh? As a political organisation, the Congress has been on the downslide in the state ever since 1989. Its base eroded further when a large chunk of its legislators chose to side with N.D. Tiwari when he broke away from the Congress. That PCC chief Jitendra Prasada, AICC General Secretary Devendra Dwivedi and former CWC member Lokpati Tripathi have all refused to try their luck in the coming polls is enough indication of the fact that the party's morale is at its lowest ebb.
Therefore, party spokesman Ramesh Dikshit's claim that the Congress will win "at least 17 seats" does not seem to be backed by any realistic assessment. For, there is no sign that the party's traditional upper caste base will shift back to it from the BJP. And neither are the backward, Dalit and Muslim communities returning to the Congress fold from the Samajwadi Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party. The Congress won only five seats in 1991—its presence in the Lok Sabha swelled to 17 when 12 MPs defected from the Janata Dal.
Even the safe seats are witnessing turbulence in one form or the other. In Ghosi, considered a relatively safer seat, trouble looms large in the form of Kalpnath Rai, who has rebelled against the party high command and is contesting as an independent. Satish Sharma, who managed to get a ticket for Amethi but only just, is weakened because Sonia Gandhi stays indifferent to him after relations souredover his deepening loyalty for the Prime Minister. Another minister, Salman Khursheed, who is contesting from Farrukhabad, faces a stiff challenge from the BSP.
PUNJAB
Total Seats: 13
1991 Position: 12
prospects: Likely to decrease
AS the Congress gets closer to the brink of disaster in Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, it is pinning its hopes on smaller states like Punjab. A poor turnout of 23.9 per cent, with the Akalis boycotting the polls, had helped the Congress win 13 out of 14 seats (including Union Territory Chandigarh) in the last election in February 1992, but the presence of the Akalis this time around—with the Akali Dal (Badal) and the BSP making for a formidable alliance—precludes such a sweep.
The end of militancy in Punjab, says state unit chief Virender Kataria, will be the party's main election plank, but even he admits that the BSP presence in certain pockets will eat into the traditional Congress vote bank of Dalits and non-Jat Sikhs. He, however, expects the BJP's Hindu vote to come to the Congress because it is the only party 'capable' of taking on the Akalis.
The Congress also expects to draw mileage from an "emotional campaign" focusing on the 'martyrdom' of Beant Singh. In fact, his widow Jaswant Kaur is the Congress candidate from Ludhiana and is expected to win. Dissidence in the Punjab Congress, however, is likely to take its toll and senior leaders from the state accuse Chief Minister H.S. Brar of shying away from Beant Singh's hardline policies against the Akalis. In fact, Brar did not want his kin to contest against Akali leader Parkash Singh Badal's son from Faridkot as it was not a "safe seat". But dissidents pressurised him in front of Rao and he ended up nominating his daughter. It is likely to be a close contest and, if the Congress loses, Brar's prestige will suffer.
HARYANA
Total Seats: 10
1991 Position: 9
Prospects: Likely to decrease
WHILE Bhajan Lal did not succeed in preventing the renomination of the dissident leaders and sitting MPs ranged against him—Chiranjiv Lal Sharma, Avtar Singh Bhadana and Bhupinder Singh Hooda—for Lok Sabha tickets, he was given a free hand in the choice of assembly candidates. This confirms that the Prime Minister wants Bhajan Lal to continue as chief minister if the Congress gets a majority in the assembly elections, something that may be a bit difficult. But Rao's careful choices, as far as the Lok Sabha constituencies go, may bear some fruit—though the party is extremely unlikely to get near the nine seats (out of 10) which it won last time.
With Bansi Lal's Haryana Vikas Party and the BJP entering into a poll alliance and the Devi Lal and Om Prakash Chautala-led Samata Party very much in the race, Bhajan Lal's hopes—despite the unpopularity of his regime—rest on the division of the opposition vote, especially the dominant Jat and rural electorate.
DELHI
Total Seats: 7
1991 Position: 2
Prospects: Likely to remain same
DELHI is once again likely to emerge as a stronghold for the BJP. In 1991, the saffron party won five of the seven Lok Sabha seats at stake. This time, the latent infighting in the Congress has become an electoral battle. The chief thorn in the the party's side is former unit president H.K.L. Bhagat, who fell from grace last month when he was taken into judicial custody in the Sikh riots case. Upset by what he perceives to be the leadership's lack of concern, Bhagat hit back by filing his nomination as an independent from two constituencies—Delhi (east) and Sadar—upsetting the chances of the official Congress candidates, Deepchand Bandhu and Jagdish Tytler. Bhagat is more than open about his gameplan: "If I do not win, I won't let you (the Congress) win." And the Congress finds that it cannot ignore the Bhagat factor. Admits party veteran Jag Parvesh Chandra: "Unless Bhagat withdraws, it might create problems for the Congress candidates."
Infighting has also affected other constituencies where outsiders like Kapil Sibal (South) and Meira Kumar (Karol Bagh) have been fielded, much to the surprise of local workers. In 1991, the Congress stood united but even then the BJP cornered a majority of the seats. In five years, the equations have only got more lopsided.
GUJARAT
Total Seats: 26
1991 Position: 6
Prospects: Likely to remain same
LAST year's Vaghela-led rebellion in the BJP is being outmatched by the Congress vs Congress situation that is developing in Gujarat. "It's become a party of husbands, wives, daughters and sons," says Chabildas Mehta, a former Congress chief minister who is thoroughly disgusted with the choice of candidates for the 26 Lok Sabha constituencies.
At least seven seats have been allotted to relatives of prominent Congress leaders. "We have right away conceded seven seats to the BJP," says Narhari Amin, senior leader and former deputy chief minister. Take an instance. In Sabarkantha, the ticket has gone to former chief minister Amarsinh Choudhary's wife Nishaben, who is fresh from a 5,000-vote defeat in a panchayat election.
Veteran leader Jenabhai Darji's joining the Tiwari faction last year has blighted Congress prospects in Bulsar and Madvi. And Atal Behari Vajpayee's last-minute decision to file his nomination from Gandhinagar has galvanised the BJP rank and file, demoralising the Congress. Still, PCC chief Prabodh Rawal exudes confidence: "We will spring many surprises this time." But Mehta disagrees: "We should be lucky if we retain the six we won in 1991."
The election, the first after the death of Chimanbhai Patel, a master manipulator, takes place against the backdrop of his followers complaining that their group, the erstwhile Congress (G), is not being treated well even three years after its merger with the Congress. In the two-party state, such differences within the Congress will automatically help a resurgent BJP.
MAHARASHTRA
Total Seats: 48
1991 Position: 38
Prospects: Likely to decrease
THE state Congress is divided, with one faction supporting Sharad Pawar and other aligning with Union Home minister S.B. Chavan. The lack of commitment in the party came to the fore when state campaign committee chief Vilasrao Deshmukh recently issued a warning that rebel party candidates would face stern action. A few days later, Deshmukh filed his nomination as an independent for the legislative council. About the same time, in the Bombay Municipal Corporation, where the Congress has a majority, the Shiv Sena candidate won as Congressmen cross-voted. Both events could strike a blow to Congress hopes of retaining its 1991 tally.
Any setback in Maharashtra would only deflate the Congress' hopes of coming to power at the Centre. So much so that the Prime Minister conceded at least half the seats to the Pawar camp in recognition of his supremacy over party rivals like S.B. Chavan and A.R. Antulay besides AICC General Secretary Sudhakarrao Naik and party spokesman V.N. Gadgil. Pawar, who is leading the campaign in Maharashtra, faces a strong Sena-BJP alliance as well as a united third force, a broad coalition of eight parties including the Dalit parties and the Left. "The Muslims and the Dalits should think twice before allowing the BJP to benefit", says PCC chief S.K. Shinde.
MADHYA PRADESH
Total Seats: 40
1991 Position: 27
Prospects: Likely to decrease
AS if G.K. Moopanar's revolt in Tamil Nadu was not enough, six-term MP and former Union minister Madhavrao Scindia rebelled against the Prime Minister, float-ed his own party and filed his nomination from Gwalior on April 3. But Scindia is not alone from the state Congress opposing the Prime Minister. The Arjun Singh-led Congress (T) has fielded candidates for 27 out of 40 seats. And the likes of hawala scam-tainted leader V.C. Shukla and Arvind Netam (the latter withdrew his candidature for the Kaker seat in favour of his wife Chabila Netam, who is the official Congress candidate)—who have both been denied tickets—are not exactly happy.
This is not to say that there have not been efforts to stem the rot. Former Union textile minister Kamal Nath has been successfully persuaded by Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Digvijay Singh to withdraw his nomination (his wife Alka Nath is the official Congress candidate from Chhindwara). A tightrop-walking Digvijay Singh has never been the target of either Arjun Singh or Scindia. But their presence in this election will derail Congress calculations. The damage to the party can be assessed from the fact that 12 legislators, including three state ministers, were present when Scindia filed his nomination from Gwalior. In an effort to strengthen Scindia's hand, even the BJP has withdrawn its candidate from the constituency.
From all accounts, the situation seems to signal the beginning of a showdown which might also force Digvijay Singh to spell out his so far ambiguous loyalties. Till now, he has been able to stay afloat while remaining non-committal but he may be compelled to put his cards on the table by the growing number of dissident Congress MLAs who are opposed to Narasimha Rao.
WEST BENGAL
Total Seats: 42
1991 Position: 5
Prospects: Likely to increase
THE long-running feud between the two factions in the state—led by West Bengal PCC President Somen Mitra and Mamata Banerjee respectively—seems certain to spill over to the electoral arena and harm the party's prospects in both the Lok Sabha and the assembly elections. At a time when the Left Front has already started its campaign, the WBPCC is busy giving vent to mutual hatred and squabbling over the allotment of seats. And till the very end, allegations and counter-allegations continue to fly to and fro between the two camps and neither faction is satisfied with the seat distribution and each camp held the other had been allotted more seats than it deserved.
But the high command is amazed that the factional feud has not abated even though there is a degree of resentment against the Left Front government, something that's bound to have helped a united Congress. The Left Front, on the other hand, which had problems of its own in seat selection, has reacted with alacrity and made the divisions within the Congress a major election issue. And with 42 seats at stake for the Lok Sabha polls, the Congress seems to have let the opportunity of winning a sizeable number of seats slip by once again. However, the expected anti-establishment vote is likely to fetch the party more than its previous tally of five.
ASSAM
Total Seats: 14
1991 Position: 8
Prospects: Likely to remain same
THE prospects for the Hiteswar Saikia-led Congress in both the assembly and parliamentary polls look worse than they did in 1991 when the Congress benefited greatly from a desperately divided opposition. But now the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) has CPI, CPI(M), the tribal-dominated ASDC and a Muslim grouping headed by former law minister Abdul Muhim Majumdar.
Observers feel the Muslim vote is likely to be crucial and Saikia is believed to be unsure about the party's standing with the community. The Muslims—who number about six million out of the total population of 22 million—had voted en bloc for the Congress in the last elections. "We will have to take things as they come," Saikia says. But the Congress is confident of retaining the tribal vote. Party leaders are also hoping that opposition unity will be short-lived, as resentment is already brewing among the smaller parties who feel they have not been given enough seats by the AGP. Saikia has also attempted to give the party a "cleaner, leaner look" in the run-up to the polls. He has gone in for many new faces as Congress nominees for both the assembly and Lok Sabha elections.
ORISSA
Total Seats: 21
1991 Position: 13
Prospects: Likely to decrease
THE problems between the Janata Dal and its communist allies is what may provide the Congress some hope of redemption, though to a lesser degree than in 1991. Then, the party had won 13 of the 21 seats, with 43.2 per cent of the popular vote, while the Dal won only five despite claiming 34 per cent of the total votes polled. But the Left-Janata Dal disagreements are not as bad this time round. In fact, a seat adjustment has already been worked out with the CPI(M), though the CPI is going its own way. Also, senior Dal leaders in the state believe the charges of nepotism against Orissa Chief Minister J.B. Patnaik have tended to stick and that Rao has made a mistake in deciding to contest from Berhampur. According to senior Dal leaders, though Rao may win, his margin of victory may be very small.
ANDHRA PRADESH
Total Seats: 42
1991 Position: 25
Prospects: Likely to decrease
THOUGH bogged down by internal bickerings and still reeling from the drubbing it got in the '94 assembly elections at the hands of the Telugu Desam Party (TDP), the party's prospects look more rosy in Andhra Pradesh than in the other three southern states. In '91, the party bagged 25 of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in the state. This swelled to 31 when six TDP MPs crossed floors. Now, the Congress hopes to cash in on the goodwill that Narasimha Rao enjoys in his home state.
However, things may not be all that easy. In Telengana, regarded as the party's bastion, the PWG, which has a strong presence, has come to an understanding with the Lakshmi Parvathi-led TDP and this could undermine Congress prospects. Reports indicate that NTR's widow is gaining ground in other regions as well. Much of the optimism rests on the TDP split and the Congress' tacit understanding with the Chandrababu Naidu faction. This advantage is offset by the bitter infighting in the Congress. Rao loyalists believe that, despite a few handicaps, he could pull off a few surprises with the 'stability' and 'Telugu Bidda' planks.
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