Bjp & Allies Forge Ahead

THOUGH it is still uncertain which party or alliance will finally come to power,political pundits have been consistent in predicting a hung Parliament. The first DB-MRASopinion poll commissioned by Outlook in March indicated that no party would get a clearmajority although at that point the Congress was in the lead, with the BJP close behind.But now, a second poll by the same agency, incorporating an exit poll restricted to thefirst phase of polling on April 27 in select constituencies, indicates that the situationhas reversed. The BJP and its allies are ahead with 192 seats, followed by the Congresswith 142 and the National Front-Left Front a close third with 139 seats. The DMK-MoopanarCongress alliance is expected to win 36. With the second round of polling due in May andthe BJP emerging as a frontrunner, a section of voters who are still undecided may voteBJP, thus increasing its tally marginally.

The latest Outlook-DB-MRAS poll has been conducted in two stages. Apre-election poll in 103 constituencies in 16 states—in which 18,918 respondents wereinterviewed—was carried out between April 10 and April 20. An exit poll was conductedon April 27 during the first phase of voting in 15 constituencies spread over sevenstates—3,000 respondents were interviewed for this. Care was taken in both polls toseek rural voters’ opinions. Thus, in the pre-election poll of the 18,918 interviews,9,822 respondents were rural voters. In the exit poll exactly half the respondents werefrom the non-urban electorate.

The results show that the BJP, with a likely 4 per cent swing in itsfavour, may increase its vote share from 20 per cent in the 1991 elections to 24 per centthis time. In contrast, the Congress, hit by a negative swing of 5.5 per cent, may see itsvote percentage decline from 37 per cent in 1991 to 31.5 per cent. The NF-LF votepercentage is likely to remain at the 1991 level of 21 per cent.

While the projected Congress vote share is 6.5 per cent more than thatof the BJP and its allies, the latter are poised to emerge as the single largest partysince they are contesting only 465 seats. The BJP is also contesting only in areas whereit believes it has a strong presence. Since the Congress is contesting from all parts ofthe country, the overall number of votes in its kitty will be larger—that is, alarger vote share will not translate into more votes.

It is not difficult to see why the Congress has slipped from its earlier position asthe single largest party. It is at one level linked to a split in the Tamil Nadu unit ofthe party and the subsequent DMK-Moopanar Congress alliance. The opinion poll in March sawa landslide win for the Congress-AIADMK alliance. But, now with an anti-Jayalalitha wavesweeping the state, the Congress alliance may get only three seats. The DMK-led front maywin 36 seats.

The Congress has also lost ground in Madhya Pradesh, a state with themaximum number of hawala-tainted ministers. The March opinion poll gave the Congress 19 ofthe 40 Lok Sabha seats in the state, with the BJP in the lead with 20 seats. But thelatest poll shows that the Congress has slipped to 12 seats. The BJP has improved itsposition by three more seats. The poll also points to a downward trend for the Congress inMaharashtra. The reason: the chaotic party organisation which has not been able to quiterecover from the defeat in the assembly elections. The party is also divided intopro-Pawar and anti-Pawar camps. The net result has been that the Congress, which in Marchlooked like winning in 22 of the 48 Lok Sabha seats, may emerge victorious in only 17seats.

As for the BJP, except for Karnataka, it has failed to make any inroadsinto the South. Its strength is still the ‘Hindi belt’. Punjab, Haryana, Delhi,Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar, which are in thisbelt, account for 238 Lok Sabha seats. In these, the opinion poll puts the BJP tally at118. The NF-LF gets 53 seats and the Congress is a poor third with 47.

In the West (Maharashtra, Gujarat, Goa) the BJP will be ahead with 48 out of the total76 seats in the region. The Congress is expected to win in only 23 seats with aparticularly poor showing in its former bastion Maharashtra, and in Gujarat (where it islikely to win only four seats). The NF-LF presence, with only a single seat, is negligiblein the region. However, the NF-LF combine is the frontrunner in the East (West Bengal,Assam, north-eastern states and Orissa). Of the 88 seats, the NF-LF will probably win 51seats. The Congress is expected to win only 24 seats.

But the biggest blow for the Congress’ prospects comes from theSouth. Of the 129 seats in this region, the Congress won in 103 constituencies in the 1991elections. Now the opinion poll predicts a slide to 44 seats. Of these, 28 seats are fromAndhra Pradesh. Significantly, the BJP is likely to win 11 of the 28 seats in Karnataka.Its tally from the South is likely to be 12 seats. The NF-LF looks like winning 34 seatsin the region.

When the results of the opinion poll conducted in March and the presentsurvey are compared, it shows the Congress down by 49 seats in the overall national tallywhile the BJP is up by 22 seats. The NF-LF combine’s tally remains the same. Both theopinion polls do not take into account the six seats in Jammu and Kashmir. It has alsoexcluded Himachal Pradesh, Goa and the north-eastern states.

One reason for the Congress’ woes is that one out of threerespondents in both the March and April surveys cited it as the most corrupt amongpolitical parties. While about 25 per cent were still undecided on who exactly was themost corrupt, 33 per cent of the respondents picked the Congress. And were the respondentshappy with the performance of the Congress Government at the Centre? In both the opinionpolls, a larger proportion of respondents expressed dissatisfaction with the Government.Only 18 per cent felt that the governance was better than expected while 33 per cent wereof the view that it was worse than expected. Unemployment, rising prices, water problemsand corruption figured prominently among the problems that the respondents felt neededmost attention. 

However, it is still the Congress which is perceived as the party capable of solving majornational issues. When key issues faced by the country were read out and their opinionsought on which party was best equipped to solve these, the respondents favoured theCongress to the BJP. As many as 52 per cent felt that the Congress alone was capable ofproviding a stable government. In the other two key areas—maintaining law and orderand ensuring justice for the poor—the Congress was again ahead of the BJP.

While only 23 per cent of the respondents believed that the BJP wascapable of providing a stable government, only 22 per cent felt that the party wouldensure justice for the poor while 24 per cent were of the view that the BJP could maintainlaw and order.

The Congress’ economic liberalisation policy does not seem to havebeen received as well as Congressmen would have expected. On an overall basis, opinionsare divided though on a very marginal scale they seem to be tilted in favour of the neweconomic policy. But 38 per cent of the respondents felt that opening the doors to foreigninvestment was a wrong move while 44 per cent favoured it.

As for the leader they considered most capable of being prime minister,the first choice was Narasimha Rao with Atal Behari Vajpayee a close second. Thirty threeper cent of respondents opted for the former while 30 per cent for the latter. Surprisefinding: Sonia Gandhi was the third most popular choice; about 10 per cent of therespondents opted for her. V.P. Singh, though he has reiterated time and again that he isout of the race, was fourth with 8 per cent.