An Extended Coda

Is anyone ready for an early election? Apparently not, though all parties are trying to brazen their way out of a bad political situation. Really bad for the Congress, but a situation that also poses existential questions for the BJP and regional players. The Congress has made it clear that, for the moment, it is not rolling back FDI in retail. “Governments run on possibilities. We don’t see any immediate threat to the government as of now,” says party general secretary B.K. Hari Prasad. “If pushed for an early election, we are ready for it, but I don’t smell anything bad right now. We have enough numbers in the House. The SP and BSP continue to support us. The DMK will remain with us for the entire term. If the BJP thinks we are a minority government and don’t have enough support, they can bring a no-confidence motion in the House. The fact is they don’t have the courage to do so as they will be exposed.”

The BJP, having disrupted an entire session of Parliament, is now backing out of L.K. Advani’s suggestion for a special session. President Nitin Gadkari told Outlook, “We are not going to bring a no-confidence motion in the House. Advaniji has demanded a special parliamentary session, but it is on the issue of FDI. We don’t want to push this nation to early polls. This government is going to die its own death. Why should we bring a no-confidence motion or try to make it fall? Let it be thrown out by the people itself.”

Party sources also reveal that Advani’s anxiety to bring down the government now stems from the realisation that once the Gujarat elections are over this year-end, the leadership issue may well be settled and be out of his reach. BJP spokesperson Prakash Javadekar indicated as much when he said recently that nothing will be decided on the leadership issue till the Gujarat elections.

The SP too is in wait-and-watch mode. UP chief minister Akhilesh Yadav told Outlook that “our support to the UPA is essentially aimed at keeping out communal forces. But once the party leadership takes a decision, we’ll be ready for anything”. That said, the SP cannot be seen as playing to a gameplan that may eventually help the BJP. As such, Mulayam Yadav was careful to keep a distance from the BJP during the Bharat bandh.

The Opp ops BJP leaders, Sharad Yadav and Yechuri at a dharna against govt policies. (Photograph by Tribhuvan Tiwari)

It doesn’t stop Akhilesh, however, from asking a few hard questions of the Congress. “I see no reason,” he says, “why the Congress leadership could not have consulted its allies before embarking on a decision bound to affect the nation’s economy. After all, we do not have a closed mind.” Indeed, minds are open but options limited given the current arithmetic in the Lok Sabha. There is a tentative move to carve a front of leaders such as Mamata Banerjee, Mulayam, Nitish Kumar, Naveen Patnaik, even Jagan Reddy. The problem is, even if Mulayam ditches, there’s still the BSP to bail the government out. Always a solo artiste, Mayawati has never shown the inclination or desire to be part of a regional grouping. Yet, she remains a big player who can tilt the balance in favour of the UPA surviving for some more time.

The writing, though, is on the wall: the government may not technically fall tomorrow, but the process has begun. That is why ally NCP could say that all parties should tighten their seat-belts for polls. Sharad Pawar’s statement raised the question whether he’d join hands with the third front or even the BJP. NCP leader D.P. Tripathi rejects any such possibility. “Sharad Pawar has also said that minority governments have completed their full term successfully and we don’t think there is any immediate danger to the government. But even if such a situation arrives, we’re ready.”

But no one, it seems, is really ready for early elections. All they are predicting is further instability! This cynical strain of politics is one thing the Congress is expert at exploiting during floor management in the House in the event of a vote. Yet, a regime hanging by a thread can well find it snapping all of a sudden.

What the Congress does have going for it is the general confusion in the political class about what to do next. Take the situation the Left is in. Once the anchor for any non-Congress, non-BJP initiative, there’s no clarity at this point on whether it will be part of a third front. CPI general secretary Sudhakar Reddy says, “We have not calculated if early or late elections will benefit the Left parties or not. It hardly matters. The important thing is this anti-people government should be forced to withdraw its anti-poor policies. Yet, that is not an indication of us forming a third front.”

At present, no one really knows if they’re coming or going. It can work for UPA-II for just a little while longer. To survive the full term, it will need to take some drastic steps to give coherence to a polity currently in a tailspin.

BJP’s Flip-Flop On FDI In Multi-Brand Retail

2002

• Report of the special group on employment set up by then PM Atal Behari Vajpayee opposes FDI in retail at least during the Tenth Plan period (2002-07).
• Task force on employment opportunities headed by Montek Singh Ahluwalia recommends “fast switch to modern retail trade and removal of ban on FDI in this sector”.
• Steering committee on FDI headed by Planning Commission member N.K. Singh favours FDI in retail.
• The Union ministry of commerce and industry under DMK's Murasoli Maran recommends 100 per cent FDI in retail trade, subject to minimum capitalisation of $10 mn.

2004

• BJP finance minister Jaswant Singh says he is committed to permitting 26 per cent FDI in retail. “It is part of our agenda and we are committed to it,” Singh told Business Standard a day after the NDA manifesto was released (which has no mention of foreign investment in retail).

2009

• Election manifesto of the BJP says it will not allow foreign investment in the retail sector.

2012

• "In 2004, the NDA may have seen some merit…there may have been some rationale for it in 2004," says Leader of Opposition, Arun Jaitley.

By Panini Anand in Delhi and Sharat Pradhan in Lucknow