Amoeba Factor

IT was meant to be a united vote of the Opposition against the Vajpayee govrrnment. But in the final analysis, the real loser was the Third Front. With the DMK siding with the BJP coalition, the process of fragmentation of the Third Front began even before the fall of the government. The famous theory propounded by Biju Patnaik, that the constituents of the Third Force were like lobsters who can’t tolerate each other or coexist, was proved true once again when Janata Dal leader Ram Vilas Paswan openly floated the idea of supporting the Samata Party-BJP combination in Bihar to "defeat corruption". True to the tradition of the Third Front constituents, Paswan has put his own agenda up front, caring little for the Front or his own party’s official line.

As the general election draws nearer, the collapse of the Front seems complete. The Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) has made it clear that it can’t have an alliance with the DMK unless it distanced itself from the This has left the anti-Jayalalitha front Tamil Nadu, which the two formed along with the Left and the JD, fragmented.

In the north, the question of extending support to Congress president Sonia Gandhi forced the two Yadav chieftains— Mulayam and Laloo— to part ways, leaving Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha practically defunct. Sources in the Samajwadi Party the party had no option but to oppose Sonia. "We had the choice of committing suicide by supporting a Sonia-led government from outside or surrendering our entire base without a fight. We chose to fight. And even we lose, we will lose after a battle royale".

Samajwadi Party leader Mulayam Singh Yadav knew that after winning elections in three states Sonia had her eyes fixed on his home turf,  Uttar Pradesh. Stories of Muslims leaning towards the Congress had begun to pour in, which was bad news for Mulayam. "Now you are reading stories in newspapers that Muslims are going to the Congress. But if we had supported Sonia, the papers would  write: Muslims have gone to the Congress. Now at least we can fight".

Yet, the SP was isolated in the process. RJD leader Laloo Prasad Yadav was in favour of a Sonia-led government but could not convince his fellow Yadav, Mulayam. Political equations in Bihar forced the Congress and RJD to come together because the Samata-BJP alliance has been able— to a large extent— to polarise anti-Laloo forces. Trying hard to come out of a splendid isolation, Samajwadi leader Amar Singh even sent feelers to the Left by floating Jyoti Basu’s name as PM. But neit-her the Left nor the Janata Dal took it seriously. Says CPI(M) polit-buro member Prakash Karat: "We don’t give any credence to Amar Singh’s proposal, especially after the position taken by them after the vote of confidence". However, SP leaders maintain their position is in line with the decision, taken at the Etawah convention, of keeping equidistance from the Congress and the BJP.

Political observers feel the recent squabbles between Mulayam and other Third Front parties, especially the Left, will not last. Electoral compulsions will bring these forces together and the Left will play an important role (see interview). That still seems to be a tough task as Big Brother CPI(M) had a hard time convincing its Left allies, the RSP and the Forward Bloc, to support Sonia.

Things worsened when Ram Vilas Paswan declared at a press conference that an electoral understanding with the Samata-BJP combine in Bihar was necessary to defeat corruption. "Com-munalism is a non-issue in Bihar. The real fight is with corruption," said Paswan. The chasm in the already fragmented Janata Dal is becoming wider by the day. "Abhi pandrah din ke bhitar log idhar se udhar aana jaana shuru kar denge (people will start crossing floor within 15 days)," says JD spokesman Mohan Prakash.

Not that there was any illusion regarding Ram Vilas Paswan’s position vis-a-vis Laloo Yadav after he won the last Lok Sabha election with the support of the Samata Party. It was a slight miscalculation that Laloo’s other bete noire, Sharad Yadav, lost the election from Madhepura because the Samata Party could not decide on supporting him till the last moment.

THE magnitude of confusion in the JD was underlined by party president Sharad Yadav’s contradictory answers to the press when asked to react to Paswan’s statement. Said Sharad: "I can never believe Paswanji could say anything about supporting Samata-BJP in Bihar". In the next sentence he said: "He’s been talking about it for some time. In our party everyone is free to speak, but we act together."

That, probably, is the irony of the Third Force. Since its inception in various forms and shapes, the Front was always quagmired in its own contradictions. Right from the Janata Party experience till date, leaders representing diff e rent left-of-centre political streams have behaved as independent power- centres. Leaders like Madhu Limaye and Raj Narain were firm believers in anti-Congressism. And George Fernandes, despite  being a "champion of the secular cause", was not wary of the Jana Sangh. Says an old friend of Fernandes: "During Morarji’s period  the R S S first tried to cultivate George. And in ’96 George openly sided with the B J P because he is a Christian in a ‘Hindu country’ who wants to become PM".

In reality, what hastened Fernandes’ alliance with the B J P was his abortive effort to create a formidable forum in 1993 comprising all socialist parties. During a convention of socialist groups held in March ’93, George Fernandes floated his pet idea offorming such a grand coalition of interests . This created fear in the minds of Biju Patnaik and Laloo. So when it came to the question of leading the JD parliamentary party, he was defeated in the election by Sharad. As JD ideologue Surendra Mohan puts it:  "The basic concept of the Third Front was based on the anti-Congress, anti-BJP ideas. Whenever this gets disbalanced the Front plunges into crisis. Political compulsions bring these formations together again and again". He feels that in the wide spectrum of the Third Force some people have a soft corner for the Congress and others are sympathetic to the BJP. Regional politics also plays a major role.

For example, despite being the United Front convenor, Chandrababu Naidu extended support to the rival B J P at the Centre in 1998 as there was no immediate threat from the party back home.

The Third Front has always been looked  upon by its detractors as a marriage of convenience between ‘opportunist power-seekers’. But it is also a fact that the Front has thrice provided alternatives— however fragile or shortlived— at the Centre. In this atmosphere of utter confusion where none had anticipated mid-term polls, the Phoenix called the Third Front has been reduced to ashes. Whether it can rise yet again from the ashes remains to be seen.