Much learned analysis has been expended on the most recent of Maoist massacres, on July 12, at Madanwada, Khoregaon and Sitagaon under the Manpur police station in the Rajnandgaon district which lies just 90 kilometres from Raipur. A total of 29 policemen, including a Superintendent of Police, Vinod Choubey -- the highest ranking officer to be killed by the Maoists in the state till date -- were killed in these interlinked incidents. Commentators have waxed eloquent about the ‘impunity’ and ‘brazenness’ with which Maoists are able to execute attacks, despite the "massive deployment of central paramilitary forces". This would be laughable, were the situation not tragic. The sheer and obdurate ignorance of such commentary ignores the most basic facts of the ground in Chhattisgarh and the persistent and criminal neglect of even the most rudimentary requirements of counter-insurgency response over the entire period of the state’s existence (Chhattisgarh came into being on November 1, 2000) and, indeed, across the expanse of what is widely spoken of as the ‘red corridor’.
The harsh reality is that the entire disposition of forces -- both central paramilitary forces (CPMFs) and state police -- in Chhattisgarh is irrational. The current allocation of force, in any conceivable distribution, cannot secure any coherent strategic goals against the Maoist challenge. What political and bureaucratic advocates of the ‘battalion approach’ -- the arbitrary allocation of available central forces across the country in the wake of successive ‘emergencies’ -- and of incremental capacity augmentation in the forces, fail to recognize is that there is a critical mass that has to be achieved before counter-insurgency (CI) can even begin to be effective. Anything less creates no more than the illusion of a ‘response’, without adding substance to security. Worse, any concentration or dispersal of forces below this critical mass abandons these personnel to unacceptable and pointless risk -- making them sitting ducks for targeted insurgent violence.
This, precisely, is the situation in Chhattisgarh. A quick review of capacities is useful in this context. The total sanctioned strength of the police -- both civil and armed -- in Chhattisgarh currently stands at 42,895 for an estimated population of 20,795,956, yielding a relatively healthy ratio of 206 per 100,000 population (compared to an end-2007 all India average of just 125/100,000). The state government has made some incremental efforts to increase both sanctioned and actual strength over the past years, driving up the ratio from 128/100,000 in end-2007. These numbers are, however, grossly deceptive. Against the sanctioned strength, there is a deficit of nearly 24 per cent, yielding a total of 32,785 personnel. Worse, the armed police -- the crucial element in CI operations, stands at a sanctioned 17,303, with a deficit of 36 per cent, yielding just 11,078 personnel (another 5,500 are to be recruited by August 2009). This means that the ratio of armed police to population currently stands at just 53.3/100,000.
To this, let us add the "massive deployment of central paramilitary forces". The total current deployment of CPMFs in Chhattisgarh stands at 16 battalions [14 Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) and two Shasastra Seema Bal (SSB)]. In most interpretations, this would mean 16,000 CPMF personnel in the state; however, actual deployment on the ground works out to just about 400 personnel per battalion -- that is, a total of about 6,400 CPMF personnel in the state. Adding this to the Chhattisgarh Armed Force strength yields a still-anaemic ratio of 84/100,000.
Add another dimension to this. Chhattisgarh is a relatively large state, with a total area of 135,194 square kilometres, with some extra ordinarily difficult terrain. This gives us a total density of 8.2 policemen per 100 square kilometres; add on the CPMF strength, and we have 12.93 armed personnel per 100 square kilometres.
It is useful to take a quick look at the "massive force" available in the Bastar division -- the region worst affected by Maoist violence in Chhattisgarh, and indeed, in the country. Total deployment in Bastar amounts to just about 6,800 personnel (11 battalions or about 4,400 CRPF personnel and six battalions or 2,400 personnel of the CAF) for an area of 39,114 square kilometres, yielding a ratio of 17.4 armed personnel per 100 square kilometres.
How does this compare with what is really needed? There can, of course, be no absolute criteria for CI Force ratios to population and area -- and divergent results have been secured with the most diverse ratios possible. It is useful to note, however, that Manipur, has a police-population ratio 627 per 100,000. This state of just about 2.4 million people, has 10,749 state Armed Police, and an additional deployment of almost 42 battalions of Central Forces for counter-insurgency operations, as against just 16 CPMF battalions in Chhattisgarh, for a population that is just over one-ninth of Chhattisgarh’s, and a land mass that is one sixth that of Chhattisgarh’s. Indeed, Manipur’s geographical area (22,327 square kilometres), is just over half that of the Bastar Division (39,114 square kilometres).
Significantly, the US Army’s Counterinsurgency Manual recommends a ratio of 20 armed personnel per 1,000 population (or 2,000 per 100,000 population) in counter-insurgency operations, a ratio that has never been achieved in any theatre in India.
Absolute deficits in the force are compounded by even graver deficits in force leadership. For its size and population, Chhattisgarh has the smallest of sanctioned Indian Police Service (IPS) cadres -- at 81 sanctioned posts. The state ranks 9th in terms of size, but is 25th in terms of IPS allocation. Worse, there are just 64 of the sanctioned 81 IPS officers available in the state on policing posts, and another 10 on deputation to other departments. Indeed, at one point, the state did not even have as many SP ranked officers as it had districts. This particular problem was, over time, addressed by the simple expedient of directly appointing newly recruited Assistant SPs as SPs immediately after completion of training. Chhattisgarh now has as many as 24 SPs with less than three to four years of service. At the cutting-edge rank of Deputy Superintendent of Police (DSP), the sanctioned strength stands at 212, but available strength is just 135 -- a deficit of 36.32 per cent. In the ranks between Inspector and Assistant Sub-Inspector, the deficit stood at as much as 40.5 per cent, according the the NCRB Crime In India 2007 report. In many police posts and camps, in fact, the force operates without the leadership of any officer ranks. Operations are led by havildars or constables -- and this has become a critical point of dispute in joint operations with CPMFs.
The state police, moreover, have a transportation deficit of nearly 50 per cent against requirements. While 70 per cent of the police stations have been ‘fortified’, at least 30 per cent continue to operate in improvised barracks, often in the most vulnerable areas. Significantly, moreover, sources disclose that, of about 5,000 CAF personnel trained at the Counterinsurgency and Jungle Warfare School at Kanker, hardly 800 have been deployed in CI duties.
T
he July 12 incident tells us precisely how Chhattisgarh’s current Force dispositions impact on the ground. First, the Maoists killed two personnel of the Chhattisgarh Special Armed Force (SAF) at a poorly protected camp at Madanwada. The circumstances of this attack are itself revelatory -- the two men had gone out of the camp to relieve themselves, as was the routine, since the camp was not provided with any toilet facilities. On hearing of the incident, Vinod Kumar Choubey, the District Superintendent of Police, proceeded to the incident location with reinforcements. This force was attacked on the way, and there has been much criticism over Choubey’s failure to follow Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs), and proper Road Opening Processes (ROP) before proceeding to the camp. But wars are not fought on SOPs.