A Small Pocket Of Rhetoric

• General elections, 1971: It was a landslide win for the Congress. Indira Gandhi rode high on the army liberating Bangladesh from Pakistan.
  
• Maharashtra polls, 1995: The Shiv Sena-BJP combine won this election two years after the 1993 serial blasts in Mumbai. Its electoral campaign was marked by strong Hindutva and anti-Pakistan/Muslim rhetoric.
  
• General elections, 1999: Victory in the Kargil war helped BJP win 182 seats. Its campaign promised a tough state.
  
• Gujarat assembly polls, 2002: Held after the Gujarat riots, Narendra Modi directed his anti-terror rhetoric against Pakistan and Muslims. Result: the BJP won 127 ofthe 182 seats.

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Karnataka may well prove to be an exception because the rise of the BJP in the state has encouraged a set of activities (like the recent attack on a Mangalore pub and the targeting of Christians before that) that has sharpened the communal divide. In fact, it was the terror card that helped the BJP come to power in the assembly polls last year. People here could well identify with the threat of Pak-inspired terror, having witnessed an attack on the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, in 2005, and serial blasts in the city last year.

Not so in Kerala, though. Hindu-Muslim tension may be rising in Kannur and Malappuram districts but terrorism from Pakistan has never been an election issue in the state. "It would be wrong to say that Kerala is immune to terror and communalism," says political commentator Moinudin N. Karassery. "But none of the mainstream political parties like to discuss terror as a major issue because it invariably focuses on political Islamist elements."

And Andhra Pradesh? Hyderabad has suffered terror attacks on the Mecca Masjid, Lumbini Park and Gokul Chaat Centre over the last two years and the citizens are concerned about cross-border terrorism. But, as Prof G. Hargopal of the political science department at the University of Hyderabad points out, "The Congress effort to play up a plank based on ‘fighting terrorism’ in the forthcoming assembly and Lok Sabha polls will not work. It might in Mumbai, but in Andhra there are other issues like Telangana, corruption and the Satyam scam." Adds political analyst Dr K. Nageshwar: "Terrorism and Pakistan are not the main electoral issue here because except Hyderabad and Secunderabad, the state has not seen any major terrorist activities, leave alone attacks. Therefore, no party can make political capital out of it."

Will the Congress loss be the BJP’s gain in the south? If past performance is an indicator, Hindutva hasn’t cut much ice either in the south. The party drew a blank in the 2004 Lok Sabha polls in Tamil Nadu, Kerala and managed only two seats in AP. Luck has turned for the BJP only in Karnataka where it won in 110 of the 224 constituencies last year and cornered 18 of the 28 Lok Sabha seats in 2004.