The exception, as I said, is Pakistan, not just because she is on the cusp between West and South Asia, and suffers the ailments of both, but as a matter of conscious choice by the Pakistani establishment of the kind of state and society they are building, of their instruments, such as political Islam and jehadi tanzeems and terrorists, and of the calculated use of tension in their relationship with their immediate neighbours, India, Afghanistan and Iran. Pakistan today exhibits many of the same features as are causing turmoil in West Asia — weak state structures, religion in politics and over politics, building nationalism on ancient or manufactured animosities, sectarian violence, an outsized military (in terms of its political role, its claim on national resources, and relative to the real security threats the country faces), a lack of popular participation and belief in the political system, weak economic prospects, and so on. At the same time Pakistan is trying to tap into the economic vitality and consolidation of East Asia, led by China. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, from Gwadar port through the Karakoram mountains to Xinjiang is one such an attempt. But it needs the promise of a specially raised division of the Pakistan Army to defend it and those who try to build it.
Over the last two years, Pakistan has benefited from the changing situation in Asia to make herself relevant to other states. A China stepping out into a regional and global role seeks partners, and Pakistan is a willing though needy one, as the US$ 36 billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor Project announced by President Xi represents. The US desire to withdraw peacefully from Afghanistan requires an accommodation with the Taliban that Pakistan offers to broker. And differences in the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Iran, Shia and Sunni, and the fight against Daesh offer Pakistan space and leverage. Even though choosing sides is never easy,
Pakistan seeks to be all things to all sides, making herself useful and offering herself as an ally — joining the 34-member coalition led by Saudi Arabia while reassuring Iran that Pakistani troops will not serve abroad, and offering herself as an honest broker between them.
But none of these address the fundamental dilemmas of Pakistan: the role of the Army; religion in politics; religious extremism and the spread of Wahhabi ideologies; the declining writ of the state and the army; and the fragmentation of society — all of which cause or are directly linked to India’s difficulties with Pakistan. As a result, Pakistan’s capacity to sustain a normal relationship with her neighbours, whether India, Afghanistan or Iran, has steadily declined.
India has consistently sought to find a modus vivendi or to normalise relations with Pakistan in our own interest. Today, we are in another phase of renewed hope, as a result of PM Modi’s reaching out to PM Nawaz Sharif most dramatically with a Christmas Day “drop-in” on Lahore. This, however, was followed within five days by the Jaish-e-Mohammad cross-border attack on the air base at Pathankot on Jan 1-2 night, repeating a pattern that we have got used to. The more serious the India-Pakistan dialogue, the more likely and severe cross-border terrorism is. Despite this, the prospect is that the dialogue process will continue with several engagements foreseen in the coming months. It is still an open question whether the optics of India-Pak dialogue can be converted to substantive results: restoring the ceasefire, controlling and eliminating cross-border terrorism, enabling normal MFN trading, and implementing past agreements such as bringing the perpetrators of the Mumbai attack to book. But the risks of the relationship deteriorating into open conflict are slight, to my mind. That would be in neither side’s interest. Indeed, both should have other more important things to do, developing their own economies and societies.