Their Kashmir

For weeks now, the Pak-Afghan relationship has been in a downward spiral. But when the usually reticent foreign minister, Khurshid Mehmud Kasuri, publicly admitted to these tensions last week, people understood it was more than just a case of leaders sniping in public. Claiming that Pakistan and Afghanistan were indispensable to each other, Kasuri went on to say, "Some problems occurred in Afghanistan because several lobbies were trying to make communication between Afghanistan and Pakistan difficult. I cannot name these lobbies because as foreign minister it is not my duty to make matters worse with other capitals."

Pakistan has been feeling the heat from across the border for some time now. In Chaman, Balochistan, lie 16 graves of those who were killed in a fake encounter in Spin Boldak. Pakistan said they were ordinary citizens who had crossed the border to celebrate the Nauroz festival. The Afghans, however, claim they were Taliban cadre who had been killed in a skirmish. Enraged Pakistanis tried to storm the Afghan consulate in Quetta, a first ever. Not only this, hundreds of Pakistanis languish in Afghan jails, some of whom have been incarcerated for their alleged role in fanning terrorism. But a majority of prisoners, say Pakistanis, are captives of Afghanistan’s infamous warlords who extract huge ransoms, often in dollars, before releasing them.

Islamabad has had to be strident in its tone against Kabul because Pakistanis, both the fundamentalists and liberals, have been railing against their president for blindly following US orders in the war against terror. And the price for it, they argue, is the blood of their fellowmen. It’s because of American pressure that Pakistani troops have been operating in North and South Waziristan and killing their own countrymen. It’s also why Islamabad has helplessly watched American and Afghan troops cross the border in pursuit of alleged terrorists and kill innocent Pakistani tribals. Nobody here can forget how American jets zoomed into Pakistan this January to target an Al Qaeda base, and instead killed children and women.

The Afghans perceive the situation otherwise. They say the spurt in violence in their country is because terrorists based in Pakistan’s border areas cross into Afghanistan, indulge in subversive activities and return to their safe haven here. Not only is Pakistan accused of not doing enough, it has been held responsible for Afghan President Hamid Karzai’s inability to get many of his nominees elected in the last parliamentary election.

Into this complex triangle of US, Pakistan and Afghanistan has entered a fourth player: India. President Musharraf has in several interviews accused India of fomenting trouble in Balochistan and financing the Balochistan Liberation Army in its armed struggle against the government. Pakistan feels India has the support of leaders who were part of the erstwhile Northern Alliance (NA), and are now in the Afghan government. Islamabad has often appealed to the NA to let bygones be bygones (read support to the Taliban in the past), and forge new and better ties now. Only improved relations with Afghanistan can allow Pakistan to access the markets of the Central Asian Republics.

Says political commentator T.K. Sheikh, "Indian agencies have made inroads into the Afghan ministerial setups. They will leave no stone unturned to create unrest in Balochistan. India thinks the deep sea port of Gwadar, being developed now, is not in its interests. The Jinnah Naval Base in Ormara, Balochistan, has already jeopardised Indian maritime potential." Even in the popular perception, India is held responsible for Pakistan’s woes. Sample this letter from a newspaper reader: "President Hamid Karzai has ended up as a tool of the Northern Alliance and India’s Research and Analysis Wing (RAW), while he is held hostage by his own ministries of defence and intelligence."

Editor Najam Sethi explains well the big games the nations are playing. "India’s growing influence in Afghanistan and the eruption of an insurgency in Balochistan that is clearly funded and trained by India from bases in southern Afghanistan are possibly a quid pro quo for Pakistan’s inability or unwillingness to disband the jehadi groups still attacking India in Kashmir. India’s ‘Afghan connection’ has persuaded Pakistan to reinforce its links with the Taliban and Islamist forces to pressure the Karzai government to ditch pro-India NA elements and align with Pakistan’s national security objectives."

India loomed up during a meeting between Karzai and Musharraf in February. In the presence of his intelligence chief, Karzai bitterly complained to Musharraf about the terror the Taliban and Al Qaeda were exporting from Pakistani soil. Musharraf lost his cool, says an insider, adding, "As Karzai and his intelligence chief squirmed in their chairs, Musharraf read out from documents that detailed Indian interference from inside Afghanistan with precise information. He also told Karzai that he was being taken for a ride by his intelligence network."

Says Brig (retd) Asif Haroon, author of several books on security and Kashmir, "Opening up of several Indian consulates in southern Afghanistan and the presence of Indian commandos there are ominous signs, particularly as we have established that RAW agents are supporting the rebellious elements in Balochistan and FATA (Federally Administered Tribal Areas). The Afghan government has also stepped up its virulent propaganda against Pakistan, accusing it of exporting terrorism and giving shelter to the Taliban. Pakistan should do away with its policy of appeasement by being altogether unapologetic."

Pervaiz Iqbal Cheema, head of the Policy Research Institute, Islamabad, says tensions because of the Big Game could have been reduced had the US, during President George Bush’s visit, sincerely mounted pressure on Afghanistan and India to do more vis-a-vis Pakistan. Cheema explains, "So far, India has not moved an inch on its Kashmir policy, and Afghanistan has done nothing to curb the activities of militants on the Pak-Afghan border. Besides, the Afghans have also given a free hand to Indian consulates. Under these circumstances, the Pakistan government is likely to be subjected to intense pressure to re-evaluate its regional and global policy pursuits. Increasing criticism is already making the situation rather difficult for the rulers."

Perhaps the US is trying to make belated amends through a recent invitation to Awami National Party (ANP) leader Esfandyar Khan to visit Washington and discuss the issue. Grandson of the legendary Khan Abdul Ghaffar Khan, and always known to enjoy good ties with Kabul, Esfandyar surprised many during a Senate debate with his accusation of blatant Afghan interference in tribal areas. As Daily Times wrote, "A dialogue between the ANP and the Americans would not be without benefit to Pakistan, and to the government in Islamabad, which wants to come to grips with the situation in Balochistan and FATA." But Big Games, as we all know, are easy to start, difficult to end.