Prime Element

With the Indo-US nuclear deal in the bag, Manmohan Singh has made his mark in international circles. He commands respect when financial issues are on the table and the Chinese hosts of the 45-nation ASEM took due note of that. He was invited to be the last speaker at the end of one important session at the summit and a separate meeting between him and Chinese president Hu Jintao was organised as the summit closed. The fact that India will be critical to any solution was clear in the utterances of world leaders like French President Nicolas Sarkozy. As a protocol officer in the Indian delegation put it, "The days are gone where the leaders of the West determined the agenda. Now India is critical and our PM is heard carefully at every international summit."

Manmohan's problems really lie in the arena of domestic politics. The ambiguity of his position within the Congress party was highlighted at the brief press conference aboard the PM's aircraft. When Outlook asked him whether he'd like to be a member of the Lok Sabha, the PM replied: "It is too early to take a final decision on that." He is today the rare PM who enters Parliament through the Rajya Sabha. Should he remain the prime ministerial candidate for the Congress, then he can't possibly evade a Lok Sabha election. Says an aide, "The PM would naturally be given a safe seat and he would be happy to contest. But we all know that he will take the instruction from Sonia Gandhi."

Today, there is increasingly a view that the Congress will have no choice but to seek a mandate for the Manmohan Singh government and he will eventually end up contesting the forthcoming polls. But the PM will not have a role in a mass campaign; that will remain a preserve of the Gandhi family. Aboard his aircraft, the PM told scribes that elections will be on schedule, that is, by April-May next year. But sources in the PMO told Outlook the polls would most likely be advanced to February. The Congress does not have too much time to take the final call on Manmohan Singh. Till then, the best course for the PM is to display his great command over economics and diplomacy.