These are tough questions for us. An ambiguous foreign policy approach in a bi-polar world order dominated by the US-USSR rivalry was at best necessary to distance the newly established Indian state from the high voltage super-power rivalry, though our tilt towards the USSR was more than apparent. Nevertheless, the ambiguity which manages to creep into our foreign policy postures even now (be it concerning Iran or the US, pre-Indo-US nuclear deal or India’s uncertainty whether to support the King or the democratic forces in Nepal; or in addressing questions on whether India should support the Indo-Pak peace deal with or without US backing), "are understandable but intellectually misguided sentiments" unacceptable in the changing context of multi-polarity.
Viewed through largely western international relations concepts, especially realism (based squarely on European military history),it would seem, Asia is destined to engage in a devastating war due to competition over resources, ownership of sea-lanes of communication, and the logic of "the victor takes it all". However, the history of Asia, preceding the two World Wars, unlike European history,is instructive. The trauma of Western imperialism/colonialism equipped Asian civilizations with the art of "wary cooperation", which could perhaps inform their own foreign policy behaviour even today and result in cooperation instead of destructive Europe like competition. Wary co-operators act with a "glance over their shoulder" and adjust behaviour according to the context. This is a prudent conceptual paradigm for India to consider in its relations with countries like China and the US, who are viewed as potential competitors for resources like oil and gas, and sea passage in the India Ocean Region(IOR).
In light of the above, the classical alignment of states based on "balance of power"can be avoided. Indian foreign policy must be critically responsive to the ever changing reality of international politics. Offered below is an Indian foreign policy vision 2020 for India based on "wary cooperation" instead of competition.
India’s Foreign Policy Vision—2020
The Global Financial Crisis
The global financial crisis largely propelled by the neo-liberal policies of the West based on the logic of free market and deregulation of the banking system is threatening the international economic system with collapse. Despite the crisis triggering off in the US, countries around the world have been affected due to the interdependent nature of the global economic system. The Indian and Chinese system of "economic liberalisation tightly controlled by the state" is a good and wise policy step in this context and should be continued. However, since the international economic system is inter-dependent, by 2020, India must develop a robust reserve system as well as insist that the US monitor its markets and banks, and ensure that the dollar remains stable. It is also perhaps wise to have a global economic institutionbased on BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) where what these countries say on global economic issues will betaken seriously rather than the current World Bank or the International Monitory Fund biased heavily in favour of the West. Into this alternative institutional mechanism, smaller countries in Asia, Latin America, East Europe and Africa should be roped in to provide a "cushion-effect" against the kind of economic crisis that the West has landed the world in due to its unregulated and vacuous credit system. Imagine a BRIC Monetary Fund, with headquarters in Beijing, New Delhi, Moscow or Brasilia! It will be an exciting alternative support structure for the BRIC populations, which account for more than 45 per cent of the world’s population.
Rise of Asia
The rise of Asia is one of the most powerful developments in the 21st century.It is also a dramatic rise because two emerging great powers in the international system, China and India, are locatedin it. As a result, there is an urgent requirement by both countries to articulate their foreign policy vision in order to reassure not only each other but their much smaller neighbours about their political intentions and military capabilities. Though Western sceptics have raised their voices against China’s "peaceful rise" foreign policy discourse, arguing that the Chinese are justbiding their time, East and South East Asia seems to gradually view China favourably as the "big brother". The present Western mainstream discourse is also projecting a certain India-China showdown due to their unsolved border areas but given the history of cooperative behaviour between the two nations (save 1962), the future does not appear so bleak. India must however, articulate that its cooperation with China hinges on China recognizing Arunachal Pradesh as integral part of India. By 2020, India should also envision strong institutional political, economic and cultural links with ASEAN countries and East Asia propelled by its own "Look East" policy.
The Indian Ocean Region (IOR)
According to a recently published Foreign Affairs article by Robert D. Kaplan titledCenter Stage for the 21st Century: Rivalry in the Indian Ocean, India and China’s dramatic economic and military growth "based on their great-power aspirations and their quests for energy security have compelled the two countries to redirect their gazes from land to the seas". Kaplan asserts that in this unfolding drama of destructive China-India competition, the US will have to keep the peace and safeguard the global commons like interdicting terrorists, pirates, and smugglers, providing humanitarian assistance and managing the competition between India and China as an "off-shore" balancer. While this prediction by Kaplan foretells disaster for the huge Chinese and Indian population base, he seems to have ignored the fact that India and China are not juvenile civilizations and cultures. Both enjoy centuries old evolution maps, knowledge base and rich ideas of statecraft based on empire building by their ancestors. Both also realize the devastation that a war in the IOR could bring upon them given their sophisticatedweaponization, including the possession of nuclear weapons, large conventional armies, and geographic proximity.