It Can Lead To A Lot Of Fission

Following him, the Left too lambasted the N-bargain, claiming it marks the end of India's policy of nuclear disarmament, and advised the government to "carefully calibrate" the changes in its nuclear policy with the measures the US has promised to take. Its most valid criticism was the Singh government's failure to take its allies into confidence. Outlook has learnt that even Congressmen were oblivious of the sweeping nature of the deal. Off the record, they spoke of a lack of "synergy between party and government", and the fact that they were completely in the dark about the "fine print".

Political parties apart, the reaction of the scientists to the agreement is mixed. Some accept the need to procure nuclear fuel (enriched uranium) and believe it would augment India's power resources.

Others, though, caution that India's security needs could be compromised should last week's agreement be implemented without proper thought. This is because, in contrast to the prevailing wisdom, weapons grade uranium not only come from two reactors, Dhruva and Cirus, but also from other reactors. Enforcing an ill-thought out separation of military reactors from those civilian could indeed diminish India's ability to meet future threats, considering security needs keep changing.

Says former chairman of the Atomic Energy Commission P.K. Iyengar, "Only those facilities for which external assistance is available in the form of fuel or technology could be put under IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) safeguards." He says the demarcation between civilian and military facilities is no easy task, and is fraught with serious consequences. "We have to consider whether the agreement adversely impacts on the cost-effectiveness of our programme, our ability to do r&d in the weapons' field and the production facilities which are needed for our nuclear arsenal." Agrees former Director of Bhabha Atomic Research Centre (BARC) A.N. Prasad, "Segregating nuclear facilities into military and non-military is impractical."

Others too say the scientific community was not taken into confidence. Laments former chairman of the Atomic Energy Regulatory Board A. Gopalakrishnan, "The way we are going about it, having no consultations with the scientific community, is a problem. What efforts have the PMO or the MEA undertaken, even like having a two-day workshop to discuss the topic?" Commenting on the fact that India has agreed to place its civilian facilities under the more intrusive voluntary Additional Protocol of the IAEA, he cautions: "We have to insist that the modified protocol is similar to that which applies to the US, and not the protocol applicable to non-nuclear weapon states."

Senior scientists drew up the following cardinal principles for implementing the agreement without compromising national interests:

• Earmark sufficient number of facilities for national security. Sources say the he ideal situation would be to initially place all current facilities, barring the six already under IAEA safeguards, in the military category.
  
• BARC facilities should be left untouched, as it is involved in the nuclear weapons chain "right through till the very last moment". India's model should be the Los Alamos or Lawrence Livermore labs in the US that are into multipurpose research, including weapons, civilian and medical.
  
• The three-stage energy plan drawn up by Homi Bhabha should remain secure and be allowed to come to fruition.

In stage 2, the plutonium thus extracted, was to be placed in the core of a fast breeder reactor with the precious uranium. Operating the reactor with a thorium blanket was to convert some of the thorium into U233. The third stage entailed using the U233 and thorium together in another reactor. In course of time, the Bhabha plan envisaged a number of fast breeder reactors. When uranium burns, only 1.5 per cent of the material is used; 98.5 per cent is waste. By recycling this 98.5 per cent of uranium, it is possible to multiply the energy extracted by roughly 60-65 times, beneficial considering our uranium reserves are meagre.

Scientists feel the three-stage plan shouldn't be abandoned because it is a model of self-reliance. Should India reach the third stage it can have energy in perpetuity. It's a different matter though that after 50 years the country has reached the end of the first stage.

Right now the nuclear power plants are operating far below their capacity because of low quantity of uranium available. Even if all theFBRs are completed, there's not enough uranium to run these. The known sources (in Jaduguda mines) are depleting rapidly. Scientists say neither theNDA nor the UPA governments have displayed the will to mine uranium either in Domiasiat in the northeast nor in Nalagonda in Andhra Pradesh. "There is a crying need for a parliamentary action committee to conduct hearings in the status of the nuclear power sector," bristles a source.

Moreover, the agreement does not shed any light on the reprocessing of spent fuel. Iyengar points out, "Spent fuel from Tarapur, right from the seventies, is lying around." The Americans who supplied the fuel don't want it back.... Simultaneously, India is debarred from using it. "If you calculate that approximately 60 tonnes of spent fuel was produced in Tarapur alone every year for 30 years, there is a great danger that the material will get degraded. One would like to see the spent fuel being reprocessed and used to generate electricity. It is not a minor issue," Iyengar said.

But there are others who see a silver lining in last week's agreement. Its importance lies not so much in sourcing American nuclear fuel and reactors; they say the agreement would pave the way for others—France, Russia, Germany and Canada—in the NSG (Nuclear Suppliers Group), which was formed post-Pokhran I as a punitive denial regime against India, to supply India with civil nuclear technology. Agrees former Indian ambassador Lalit Mansingh, "It should now become easier for India to do business with the NSG." A source in the scientific community sums it best: "It is a bit like the Pope (the US) saying okay to abortion. The effect should be electrifying."