Iran is staying on the offensive, and why not? The Iranian government has rejected the UN Security Council’s legally binding demand that it suspend uranium-enrichment activities, as a way to restore international confidence and allow negotiations on the long-term future of Iran’s nuclear program to proceed. Tehran expresses willingness to negotiate on many issues, just not the major one – whether there are conditions under which it would be welcomed internationally to operate facilities that could produce fuel for nuclear weapons. The Iranian government assumes that no one, least of all the UN Security Council, can stop it. Floundering wars in Iraq, Afghanistan and the ambiguous outcome of Lebanon war have given Iran momentum.
The futures of Lebanon and nuclear weapons in the Middle East now intertwine, and Iran is the common link. Iran’s cooperation is needed to implement UN resolutions 1559 and 1701 on Lebanon, and 1696 on the nuclear issue. But Tehran will rebuff pressure in one area by indirectly threatening to make things worse in the other. Iran’s counterparts must step back and develop a more comprehensive diplomatic strategy.