What would Trump possibly do?
The well- known xenophobic Republican candidate has been doing a flip flop on this issue every now and then. On one hand he said, "H-1B, whatever it is, I use it but I don't like it. I want to scrap all H-1B visas.". And went a 360 degree to propose to keep the current quota but raise the minimum wage for H-1B hires to avoid replacement of U.S. workers by cheap labor. He is also on record saying, "They go to Harvard. They go to Yale. They go to Princeton. They come from another country, and they're immediately sent out. I am all in favour of keeping these talented people here so they can go to work in Silicon Valley". So what effect his Presidency will have on our software industry is anybody's guess.
As per what the other earlier republican candidates have been voicing all through the earlier stages of the campaigning, Chances are that the party will back tightening the eligibility criteria and requiring the recruitment of American workers first. In his 2011 book Time To Get Tough, Trump had advocated a 15% tax on companies for outsourcing jobs to places like India and a 20% tax for importing goods and services. If he decides to stick to that the incoming calls for outsourcing may drastically lower. But then again, the Indian companies that have a US subsidiary have the option to hire local talent from there and take the tax exemption.
What would Hillary possibly do?
Be it Clinton or the current president Barack Obama, most Democratic candidates have been all in for updating the H-1B programme and increasing the annual cap to acquire the best of talent. However, it's not to forget that in 2008 Obama did try pass a bill that could have hit outsourcers with big Indian operations with a 35% tax bill if deferrals were eliminated. Also in Dec 2015, the US Congress passed a bill named the "9/11 Health and Compensation Act" to fund continued healthcare for first-responders. To keep the dollars flowing, the Bill doubled the fee for H-1B visas for every new applicant to $4,000. These changes will be in force for the next 10 years and are likely to cost the Indian IT industry $400 million a year, according to NASSCOM. Definitely not a very India-friendly move!
Hillary has been vocal about providing tax exemptions and health care benefits for local spurn IT companies and woman entrepreneurships, investing in computer science and STEM education (a loss for Indian companies) as well as attracting and retaining top talent from around the world (a definitive profit).
Back to the question - Hillary or Trump?
In the current situation, Hillary is not supposed to take any knee jerk reaction on the plans of Indian (Asian) outsourcing and labour imports which makes her the candidate the Indian IT industry should wish upon. On the other hand, Trump is known to make impulsive decisions. He may increase the H-1B salary cap which could help the companies that already have employees in US or he may abandon the entire outsourcing/talent import programme at a finger's snap.
Only time will tell what the new political whirlwind in North America will bring with it for India.