Gambler's Chance

When the going gets tough in Nepal, the politicians get quarrelsome. Faced with a violent Maoist rebellion that is driving away tourism and bankrupting the exchequer, Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba has now had to dissolve Parliament and call fresh elections in November to quell dissent in his own Nepali Congress party.

The culprit, as ever, is the ageing political strongman and ex-premier G.P. Koirala. He's no stranger to dissent himself, facing at least two challenges while in office over the past seven years, both from a certain Sher Bahadur Deuba. But at this point in Nepali politics, Koirala's intervention has raised questions about his once-legendary political nous. "The old man can't be trusted, ever," said a Deuba aide after the PM was expelled from the party on May 22, "but what could he have been thinking about this time? If he had got to power again, no one—including the army—would've obeyed him. If he destabilises but doesn't topple Deuba, it only benefits the Maoists." Efforts are now on to resolve the crisis sans a formal split.

It all came as a huge surprise to those who follow the internecine squabbling that passes for politics in Kathmandu. Deuba was just back from very successful trips to Washington and London. US President George Bush and UK PM Tony Blair had met him, praised him and sent him away with promises of monetary and moral support to fight the Maoists. Yet the entry stamp was hardly dry on his passport when Koirala—as Nepali Congress party president—persuaded first the central working committee then the legislature party to turn down Deuba's request to Parliament for a three-month extension of emergency.

To be fair to Koirala, the PM had sent mixed signals about the emergency. Before he left for Washington in early May, Speaker Taranath Ranabath had warned that proper notice of an extraordinary session to debate an extension of the emergency needed to be given within days. It wasn't. And soon after his return, Deuba indicated vaguely that the emergency might be allowed to lapse as Parliament had passed firm anti-terrorist laws.

But Deuba then seemed to decide, after meeting security chiefs and King Gyanendra, that Nepal needed three more months of suspended constitutional freedoms. That was the request that ran afoul of his party. Late on May 22, Deuba summoned his cabinet and announced he was going to see King Gyanendra—reported to be furious at Koirala's move—to ask for fresh elections. The king gave his assent, provoking ruling party MPs to kick and scream about illegalities and "the death of democracy".

Emotional issues of party loyalty aside, it all looks likely to blow over, or at least not become the major constitutional crisis that analysts are warning about. For one thing, Deuba has the full support of the army and the king, so long as he stays the course. America, Britain and other donors are fully behind him. Indeed, western diplomats see the election call as a chance for the interim government headed by Deuba to take stern action against both the Maoists and corruption. "No Parliament, no party interference; if he takes the right steps, he could just earn a place in history," says one.

Crucially too, the Communist opposition, led by United Marxist Leninist (UML) chief Madhav Kumar Nepal, isn't too upset. A few UML MPs have made noises about democracy being under threat but Nepal himself says that so long as the elections are free and fair, and held on time, he isn't against the PM's move. For good reason. The UML could win the November polls were they to play their cards right and try to steal ground from both a divided Nepali Congress and the Maoists. After all, the UML has always called for land reforms and stood against caste, gender and economic inequalities.

All this assumes the Maoists won't go all out to wreck the campaign, something they are highly likely to attempt. The army has told Deuba that security for candidates and election officials requires more resources for the security forces. The real problem may be coaxing an already frightened electorate of Maoist strongholds like Rukum and Rolpa, west of Kathmandu, to vote. As a referendum on democracy versus violent extremism, it may be a laudable exercise, but if the election produces more casualties than candidates, Sher Bahadur Deuba's "place in history" may be as a gambler who lost it all.