The fourth round of talks between the government of Sri Lanka and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE)in Thailand that ended on January 9, 2003 marks a new phase in the peace process. A series of confidencebuilding measures, commencing with a ceasefire almost thirteen months ago, had led to a convivial atmosphereat each round of negotiations. However, where earlier rounds had always ended on a high note of agreement onall issues, the current talks - while marking important milestones on human rights, issues particular to womenand their participation and a focus on humanitarian issues - nevertheless saw the two sides agreeing todisagree for the first time. The important sub-committee on de-escalation & normalisation (SDN) standsfrozen, pointing to the gap between negotiations at the top and realities on the ground. The time has now comefor hard bargaining on the 'messy' nitty gritty that will take the contenders from confidence in each othertowards building consensus, not only between the negotiating parties, but with the various other power centresand stakeholders as well.
The earlier phases of talks in 2002 had taken a pragmatic approach reflecting the ground realities, instead ofpolemical arguments based on a vision for a final settlement around structures and systems. 'Lets start withwhat we have, not what we want' - seemed to be the approach on both sides, and LTTE demands, such as aninterim administration for the North East, which could have led to a constitutional minefield, weresuccessfully sidestepped. It is now quite clear that such an approach, while crucial for the initial stage oftalks, would not suffice as a basis for a durable and lasting peace.
Another connected issue is that the motivation for the momentum that had gathered (on both sides) waseconomic. And not only was a solution being sought on economic imperatives, it is evident that the responsewill also be economic. The effectiveness of a primarily economic response to an identity-based conflict,however, is a highly questionable theory of change in the light of international experience.
The Oslo talks of early December led to a breakthrough in terms of identifying the principles around which afinal solution would be built. For the first time, a Sri Lankan government explicitly committed itself to afederal solution with the LTTE, indicating its willingness to explore such an outcome. But no two federalsystems are alike, and the current discussion will have to be placed in the political realities that areparticular to the Sri Lankan context. The challenges these create include: