While the US would like the Pakistan military to invest all its energies in fighting the insurgency, the Pakistan military do not appear to think that the Taliban is so much of a threat to its viability or existence as a state. The real threat, for the military, comes fromIndia. And there are divisions between the Pakistan civilian government led by President Asif Ali Zardari and the military on this vital aspect. While Zardari and significantly enough, the Pakistan military chief Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani views the Taliban as potentially a larger threat than India, many in the military hierarchy do not share this view. The change of this India-centric military culture remains a challenge that will not go away easily. Changing this generational Pakistani military psyche is going to be a tough call for the US Special Envoy to the Region, Richard Holbrooke and Mike Cullen, the US Joint Chiefs of Staff during their visit to Pakistan this week. Handling a 61 year old India-centric Pakistan military mindset might require more than just two visits; it will perhaps require a deep understanding of the future scenarios that Pakistan and its military sees for itself in the next 10 to 15 years.
Four Scenarios for Pakistan-2020-25
Scenario 1: Encircled Pakistan
In this scenario, by 2020-25, Pakistan views itself as being encircled by a growing India-US strategic partnership buttressed by the July 18, 2005 Indo-US nuclear deal, heightened economic and military partnership and the rise of India on the international stage . The Indian presence in Afghanistan, the American distrust of the ISI, US suspicions of possible Pakistan military linkages with the Taliban,counter-intuitive US pressure on the Pakistan military to perform counter-insurgency operations in Pakistan’s Taliban infested areas, and international fears about the safety of its nuclear weapons is giving the Pakistani political elite a feeling of being under siege. The opening of two Indian consulates since 2001 in Afghanistan and the building of Afghan roads by India is seen as strategy of encirclement ofPakistan by the US and India. Further, America’s refusal to allow Pakistan to operate its remotely piloted aircraft known as Predator drones has created a sense of distrust between the two sides. The US suspicion of the ISI’s linkage with the Taliban is also viewed by the Pakistan military as another element of distrust as stated by former ISI Chief Lt. Gen. Javed Ashraf. The American unwillingness to deliver counter-insurgency equipment like helicopter gunships and night vision goggles to the Pakistan military is also driving in the point that the US military’s strategic aim is to encircle Pakistan.
Implications
There are two implications of this scenario.