That President Pervez Musharraf is currently facing his toughest challenge ever is now a given. While this may not be the end-game for the General, there is a vast churning process underway in Pakistan. Whilst the direction and outcome of this process remains uncertain, what is beyond doubt is that the balance of power in Pakistan has undergone, and will continue in the immediate future to undergo, a radical transformation. This will certainly lead to far-reaching changes in the political and security milieu of South Asia.
With his tenure nearing an end, his popularity at an all-time low, and challenges to his regime mounting, General Musharraf is currently attempting to engineer his re-election through a strategy based essentially on unprincipled alliances and the manipulation of Constitution.
Musharraf intends to secure re-election for another five years between mid-September and mid-October 2007. (His current term as Chief of Army Staff expires in November 2007 and elections to the National Assembly are scheduled to take place in January 2008.) He does not enjoy sufficient popular support to win a free and fair election, and the now activist Supreme Court could prevent ‘pre-rigging’ and rigging of the electoral process. Aware that the next Parliament may not re-elect him, Musharraf’s strategy is to push through his re-election with the current Legislature in place, where he enjoys a majority.
His nomination for re-election is, however, vulnerable to an adverse verdict from the Supreme Court. A constitutional amendment can, however, neutralize this risk, though this would require a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly. He thus urgently needs backing for such a constitutional amendment, and also some assurance from the Opposition that there will be no street mobilization and countrywide civil unrest on the issue. It is within this scenario that the military regime is attempting to arrive at an alliance with the Pakistan Peoples Party, headed by former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, who, ironically, was exiled by Musharraf, under enveloping charges of corruption, after he came to power in the October 1999 coup d'etat.
The Musharraf-Benazir power sharing pact envisages, inter alia, the following: