The collapse of Pakistan’s five-month old coalition on August 25, 2008, a week after General (Retired) Pervez Musharraf resigned as the President, has not only enlarged the political vacuum in Islamabad but has also aggravated the multiple insurgencies across the length and breadth of the country. In the long run, the developments of the past weeks are bound to have immensely dangerous ramifications for the entire political and economic structure of Pakistan.
Former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif announced, on August 25, that his party, the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N), had decided to quit the coalition due to differences with its coalition partner, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP), on the issues of the reinstatement of deposed judges and the unilateral nomination of PPP co-chairman Asif Ali Zardari as a presidential candidate. In a combative mode, Sharif told the media in capital Islamabad that the PPP had not honoured promises, in particular, on the issue of the judges. "When written documents are repeatedly flouted, trust cannot remain… We cannot find a ray of hope," he said, an indication that the pull-out could be irreversible.
The PPP leadership reportedly has fears that, if all the judges sacked by Musharraf in November 2007 are reinstated, some of them may invalidate an amnesty which led to the return of Zardari and former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto to Pakistan in October 2007. Among others, the amnesty had absolved Zardari of multiple corruption charges. Any undoing of the amnesty agreement would now leave Zardari open to prosecution on these long-standing charges. The powerfully independent minded Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry was among approximately 60 Supreme Court and High Court judges suspended by Musharraf. Zardari has, unsurprisingly, indicated that he does not want Chaudhry back on the bench. On its part, the PML-N has said that Zardari, in failing to agree to Chaudhry’s reinstatement, has broken a written agreement made with Nawaz Sharif on August 7 to restore the judiciary to its pre-November 3 position.
The PPP has sufficient support in the National Assembly to maintain a simple majority, but with the PML-N now on the Opposition benches, thegovernment under Prime Minister Syed Yousuf Raza Gilani will incline to instability. The PML-N has nominated its own candidate, Saeed-uz-Zaman Siddiqui, a former Chief Justice, to challenge Zardari in the September 6 presidential election. Also in the fray is the Pakistan Muslim League – Quaid-e-Azam (PML-Q) candidate Mushahid Hussain Sayed. The Electoral College comprises members of the two Houses of Parliament – the National Assembly and Senate – and the four Provincial Assemblies. Hectic political activity is currently underway in Islamabad and elsewhere in the country in the run-up to the election. Immense acrimony has also now crept into the political discourse, a natural outcome of the fact that the PPP and PML-N, historical rivals, had just momentarily buried their differences. With the removal of their common opposition to Musharraf as the adhesive to their coalition of opportunity, both parties are back at their competitive best.
This bitter politicking pushes Pakistan into further turmoil and will only intensify the socio-political faultlines and exacerbate militancy. It will also deepen the ramifications of the current economic gloom, and bodes ill for the country’s future stability. An expanding vacuum will suit the already emboldened Taliban-al Qaeda combine, which has not only augmented its presence and activity in its existing strongholds, but is also gradually bringing the war to urban areas and hitherto stable parts of the country.
A survival-fixated government led by Gilani has also come under immense and multiple pressures. Prominent among these is the enduring militancy across the country and the concomitant failure to stem the progression of entrenched forces of extremist Islam. In 2008, so far, it has been unambiguously demonstrated that the flag of extremist Islam continues to flail vigorously and violently across Pakistan, even as state agencies appear less in control, and more vulnerable. There have been some 3,220 militancy-related fatalities across Pakistan in 1,810 incidents in 2008 (data till August 31). This includes 1,118 civilians, 451 security force (SF) personnel and 1,651 militants. By comparison, the whole of 2007 witnessed approximately 3,599 killings, including 1,523 civilians, 597 SF personnel and 1,479 militants. In fact, August 2008 with 1,247 fatalities, including 339 civilians and 784 militants, has been the most violent month on record (according to the ICM database). [It is useful to reiterate that, given Islamabad's understated accounts, the suppression of the Press and erratic reportage from all the conflict zones, the actual numbers of fatalities could be considerably higher than those indicated above].
All the peace processes initiated by Islamabad in the aftermath of the elections and installation of the newgovernment have collapsed, and reports now indicate that massive operations have been initiated by the Army in virtually the entire militancy-affected zones in the NWFP, FATA and Balochistan. Rehman Malik, the Prime Minister's Advisor on Interior Affairs, has rejected the Taliban offer of a cease-fire and vowed to continue military operations against militants without any concessions. Whether this constitutes a decisive course correction or is merely a continuation of the flip-flops that have dominated Pakistan counter-terrorism strategy remains to be seen. 2128 people have been killed in the conflicts across the country since Gilani assumed office as Prime Minister on March 25, 2008.