Caretakers For Free And Fair Elections?

Bangladesh is poised for a national electionin October. Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s (Hasina) Awami League (AL)-ledcabinet and the Jatiya Sangshad (Parliament) have demised at the completion oftheir 5-year term. 

Mr. Latifur Rahman, the immediate-past ChiefJustice has been sworn in as the Chief Advisor of the non-partisan neutralgovernment to run the interim affairs of state, and most importantly to holdelection in cooperation with the Election Commission. To assist him in the caretaker administration,there will be no more than 10 advisors. 

Until the election is over within 90days from the inception of the interim authority and power transferred to themajority party or a majority of coalition of parties, the President, the ChiefAdvisor (with the status of the Prime Minister) and the Chief ElectionCommissioner constitute the power triumvirate in Bangladesh. 

Indeed this is the third time that a team oftemporary non-political advisors has conducted the national election forselecting a new government. But I do not remember a stopgap non-political bodyfacing such a cacophony of fear, high-octane distrust and low expectation in thepast. 

The new caretaker authority has to initiate confidence-building measureswithout a moment to waste. Bangladesh is awash with questions if there would bea fair or any election at all. People don’t stop brooding over thedangerous prospect of gangland-style warfare between the outgoing ruling partyand the opposition, and the depressing speculation of an administrative meltdownis not far behind. 

Both undercut the caretaker government’s authority andprestige, the greatest resources to carry out its constitutional responsibility. 

Well known as it is, neither Khaleda Zia norSheikh Hasina is in a mood of conciliation. The caretaker government is assumingits task in the backdrop of a relentless impasse between the AL, theuntil-recently ruling party and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)-ledopposition. The black-money power’s unsavory effects arepermeating across the body politic but it is not feasible for the temporarycaretaker authority to carry out substantive reforms in election financing. 

However, the non-political cabinet cannot look the other way while illegal armsare hoarded on both sides of the political divide. How would the new caretakerssuccessfully retrieve the illegal arms crawling all over the country? 

TheGeography Of Fear 

Likeother practicing democracies, both sides want to win the coming election inBangladesh; still there is a difference---the opposition fears that Hasina, witha second term, would castrate the dissenting voices to establish a de factoone-party system. 

Nervousobservers worry that some form of catastrophic events might thwart the expectedelection driving the nation to a constitutional crisis, political chaos anduncertainty. They seem to forget that it is not the first time that an impartialadministration successfully conducted election and handed over power. Eventhose politicians who believe in elections fret over the geography of theiranticipated results. 

The BNP is confident of winning the main urban centersincluding Dhaka and Chittagong plus the northern districts, but the AL would notlet those go to its rivals so easily.TheBNP is desperate to win more seats in the southern districts that the AL hasvowed to contest. 

As the political hype increases, the anticipated geography ofelections is catapulting to a geography of fear—violence may spread indifferent regions depending on the relative strengths and weaknesses of the twosides in those areas. 

Theopposition is scared that the AL would foil its victory by the firepower oftheir goons and guns, but the AL loses little time to say the same about theopposition. Since the April border skirmishes with India, the AL fears that thesensitivity in the Indo-Bangladesh border might turn against them during theelection. Theopposition also apprehends that unauthorized voters would come from across theborder, and vote for the AL on the Election Day. 

Somewhat mysteriously, threesenior BDR officers including the commander have been transferred out to otherjobs before Indians and Bangladeshis recently met to discuss the borderdisputes. Thatreshuffle in the BDR sent a tremor to the opposition suspecting that that the ALwas actually trying to change the political arithmetic in the border districtssince the BDR and the BSF dueled with each other, and India lost 17 of its armedpersonnel in April. 

Public Wrath 

The prospect of an exploding public wrathagainst them while they are out of power jitters the AL. Sudden enactment of theFather of the Nation’s Family Members’ Security Act 2001 has propelled manyto believe that Hasina has tried to shield herself against what might happen toher once she is out of power. 

By allowing the unprecedented andcontroversial privilege to Hasina to continue to stay at the Gonobhaban, theofficial residence of Bangladesh Prime Minister, the outgoing government hasmanaged to give more prominence to her and a greater visibility to the ALcompared to the other groups and leaders on the eve of election. 

Symbolically, it is a put down for the ChiefAdvisor of the non-political cabinet, who could stay at the Gonobhaban as aperquisite that goes with the Bangladesh premiership. Indeed, it may become amajor dispute between the caretaker authority, the outgoing ruling party and theopposition leaders. 

The new caretaker government is likely to be more baffledthan certain about the adverse implications of what the outgoing ruling partyhas decided to do with the Gonobhaban. 

Cycle OfViolence 

Theexcitement of an election under a non-political authority is detracted by theunyielding gloom triggered by endless murders, crimes, violence, armedconfrontations, political assassinations and the demeaning of the judicialprocess accumulating daily with little respite. 

Unconfirmedreports stretch between 15,000 to 20,000 violent deaths in the last five yearsor so. Citizens, frustrated by poor law and order and deepening corruption, have pinned a great deal of hope on thenon-political administration that has just arrived though only for a limitedtime. 

Canthe caretaker government eliminate the well-entrenched criminal gangs andcorrupt bureaucracy that prey on people? Most likely the answer is in thenegative. Yet, it cannot ignore a public outcry if the lawlessness continues. 

Achain of controversial and provocative steps and hyperbole coming from Hasina,on the eve of her departure from office, and the opposition leaders’ sharpreaction made the country even more volatile in the last few days. How would thenon-political advisors bring sanity before the election? 

LegalExperts 

Legalexperts seem to emphasize that the caretaker government’s constitutionalprocess comes alive mainly to run the routine administration while the ChiefElection Commissioner would carry out the election responsibility. But such alegalistic view is too narrow for dealing with the prevailing impasse. 

Aboveall, the caretaker government is a cooling off mechanism, and to that extent, itis very much a political mechanism that calls for persuasion, cooperation andresponsiveness. Its constitutional panache becomes secondary as long as thecaretaker advisors operate in the deeply politicized and sharply dividedcontext. 

Whenthe nation is wading towards a near-anarchy and people openly talk aboutblood-on-the-ground on the Election Day, the caretakers’ conflict resolutioncapacity becomes the highest priority. Most horrifying debates and doubtsswirling the caretaker government are essentially political, which makes itimpossible for the interim authority to wash off politics. 

AThankless Job 

Bangladeshis,across the spectrum, should have realistic expectation of the incoming caretakerleaders. The interim cabinet contrived under pressure in 1996 has innerparadoxes; it cannot satisfy all sides while it can ignore none.

 TheBNP-led opposition will be disappointed if they put all their eggs in thecaretaker basket! And Hasina may not get all that she might expect from thecaretakers. Yet their cooperation with the interim authority is essential. Thenon-partisan actors have no magic wand to dispel all doubts and concerns to holda free and fair election---it is really a thankless job they have been calledupon to discharge. 

Whilethe politicians, activists, civil society leaders, media and the intellectualshave polarized an already divided polity, the caretaker government cannot repairit instantly to restore full public confidence, but ironically, without amodicum of public trust, the caretakers would fail in their mandated goals. 

Noneof these fears and doubts would dispel unless the caretaker government can bringthe outgoing ruling party and the opposition together. It is true that thecaretaker government cannot be a partisan pulpit, but it cannot ignore what theparties have to say about fair election and its political environment. 

Asirony would have it, the caretaker arrangement has been designed to serve thepartisan goals in a non-partisan manner! The entire caretaker system was rushedthrough a constitutional amendment in 1996 to accomplish (holding a fairelection) what the politicians failed to do on their own by mutual good faith,cooperation, trust and respect. 

Thewhirlwind of insecurity does not augur well for the new caretaker cabinet. Theycannot afford to take side in the electoral power struggle although both the ALand the BNP would be jockeying to set the tone and agenda of the new caretakers.

Theyare not doomed from the start, but I wonder where would they start to gainpublic confidence. The caretakers cannot fulfill their role with the status quoand a patch up mission.What they may or may not decide to do in the next coupleof weeks may really mark their failure or success.  

(M.Rashiduzzaman teaches Political Science at Rowan University, Glassboro, NewJersey, U.S.A.)