When SAARC Became A Tool To Embarrass Than Cooperate...

The future of the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) is in a limbo after its 19th summit to be held in Islamabad this November was postponed as 4 member countries -- India, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Bhutan -- refused to attend the meeting citing deterioration of peace and stability in the region due to the rise of terrorism.

This is a major embarrassment for Pakistan, while, the development is a major victory for India in isolating Pakistan, an initiative undertaken by the country in the aftermath of the Uri terrorist attack, where Pakistan is alleged of being involved. 

 To sustain continuity of the SAARC, options like changing the venue are being considered. Given the prevailing animosity of between India and Pakistan prospects of any fruitful outcomes seem oblique.

The 19th summit had been facing problem for sometimes. One of the first few indications of the trouble came after Bangladesh abstained from participating in the meeting of SAARC Home Ministers held in Islamabad in August this year as a consequence of the deteriorating relations between the two countries.

The relationship between Bangladesh and Pakistan plummeted over the ongoing trials of the criminals of 1971 war in Bangladesh. Pakistan objected to the trial and subsequent execution of the war criminals which   Bangladesh sees as interference in its internal affairs.

In spite of negative feeling between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir issue, India participated in the meeting as a mark of its commitment to regional cooperation. But, the situation turned bad after Home Minister Rajnath Singh abruptly left the meeting as Pakistan raised the Kashmir issue.

Things turned from bad to worse after Uri. India, which is restraining itself from military action, is looking for alternatives to punish Pakistan, and SAARC was an obvious outcome.

SAARC, which was established in 1985 in Bangladesh as an organisation of the South Asian countries for fostering economic development and prosperity of its people, is not facing turbulence for the first time.

In 1999, the 11th summit in Kathmandu was postponed after India objected to the participation of the military government in Pakistan. 

India and Pakistan rivalry is not the only reason that led to the postponement of the SAARC. There are instances also when SAARC Summit was postponed due to internal political instabilities of the member countries.

SAARC performance below par

Like, in 2012 the 18th Summit in Kathmandu was postponed due to internal political problems in Nepal. The summit could be held only in November 2014.  Disruption in the continuity of the summits hampers the growth of the organisation as it remains standstill.

The performance of SAARC in the 30 years of existence has been far below its potential. The SAARC is comprised of 8 member countries including Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.

The region covers only 3 percent of the total land of the world and houses nearly 20 percent of the global population. It has challenges of poverty, income disparity, hunger, terrorism etc.  Again, countries are connected with each other ethnicity, language, history and culture. Considering the common factors, the expectation was that SAARC will provide a common platform to the countries of the region to jointly fight challenges facing the region. The belief was that success of SAARC would pave way for formation of a South Asian Union, which remains a distant dream.

However, it will be little unfair to level SAARC to be a complete failure.   There have been around 9 agreements and 6 conventions signed under it. Key achievements of n SAARC include the South Asia Free Trade Agreement, the establishment of the secretariat in Kathmandu, South Asian University in Delhi. But SAARC achievements hardly can be realised as nations suffer from inertia in implementing outcomes of SAARC.

Considering the present level of the relationship among the member countries, especially, with Pakistan, the future of SAARC appears to be limited.  The association works on the principle of unanimity of decision making. For any decision to formalise there should be a consensus among all the countries, which has been a challenge. With the level of mistrust prevailing among the countries, particularly, between India and Pakistan is hard to achieve. Mistrust among the nations has been a major lacuna of SAARC. During the 18th SAARC Summit in Kathmandu in 2014, the signing of the SAARC motor vehicle agreement (MVA) had to be stalled as Pakistan declined to it. 

Again, India’s asymmetric relationship with its neighbour is argued to be another shortcoming. Besides being a major economic power, India covers 70 percent of South Asia’s population and land mass, unmatchable with any other member countries. Thus, India is a key factor for the success of SAARC.

Initially, India was reluctant since it perceived the association to be a forum of the smaller countries to gang up against it and to corner its dominance in the region. The reason for such feeling aroused because of efforts by smaller countries led by Pakistan to push membership of China.

With the India’s economic growth, there has been a transformation in its approach. India is showing a keen interest in engaging with the neighbours. The previous United Progressive Alliance government led by Dr Manmohan Singh and present National Democratic Alliance government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi have given priorities for improving ties with neighbours. In the 18th SAARC Summit India took a prominent role in pushing SAARC MVA to strengthen connectivity among the countries due to its interest in deepening regional cooperation.

SAARC was an opportunity for all the countries to unite to create a grouping that would have represented voices of all the people of the region and could have made a serious impact on the world scene. Unfortunately, the opportunity is fading.

To exclude Pakistan, will sub-regional group the way forward?

With Pakistan being the focus of the problem, alternatives like forming sub-regional groups are being pondered upon as a way forward. Already, a beginning has been made in the form of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal (BBIN).

The situation has once again proved India’s clout in the region and its leadership position. It is beginning of a long road and puts India with a lot of responsibility. To continue enjoying the trust of the neighbouring countries India has to remain committed to strengthening sub-regional cooperation and also consistently nurturing these groupings.

The author is a Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. Views expressed here are author’s personal.