What About The Land Route?

Federico Trillo, the Spanish Defence Minister, told a press conference at Madrid on December 10, 2002, that a North Korean ship "So San" (some reports have described it as a Cambodian vessel) carrying 15Scud missiles in broken down condition and around 85 drums of an undetermined chemical  bound for a WestAsian port was intercepted the previous day in the Gulf of Aden by Spanish naval vessels and handed over toofficials of the US Navy for investigation.

The Reuters news agency reported from Washington DC as follows: "A North Korean cargo vessel flying noflag was halted on Monday in the Gulf of Aden by two Spanish warships and a search revealed Scud missileshidden beneath sacks of cement, senior administration and Pentagon officials said on Wednesday.  Theship, which a senior Administration official said had been tracked by US intelligence all the way out fromNorth Korea, appeared to be heading for Yemen, when it was stopped by the Spanish warships, an estimated 600miles off the Yemeni coast."

Mr. Richard  Armitage, US Deputy Secretary of State, who was on a visit to Beijing when the news ofthe interception was announced in Washington DC, described the interception as proof of North Korea's agendaof proliferation.

Abubakr al-Qirbi, the Yemeni Foreign Minister, said in a statement: "The shipment belongs to theYemeni Government and its army and is meant for defensive purposes.  " He has not explained as towhy the shipment was sought to be made in a clandestine manner without declaring the nature of the cargo inthe ship's documents.

In May, 2002, Saudi security guards were reported to have found a missile-launcher tube about two milesfrom a runway at a desert air base, south of the Saudi capital of Riyadh, used by US Air Force planes. The Agence France-Presse (AFP), quoting a Saudi dissident, reported that dozens, if not hundreds, of Saudislinked to Al Qaeda were in detention in the kingdom and that in one of the cases, "between six and 15people," all Saudis, were arrested four months ago on suspicion of smuggling shoulder-held missiles fromYemen.  The missile launcher, which was used by unidentified terrorists suspected to be from Osama binLaden's International Islamic Front (IIF) for firing a missile at an Israeli plane carrying tourists as it wastaking off from the Mombasa airport last month without hitting at it, was also suspected to have been smuggledinto Mombasa from Yemen.

The US intelligence has since the beginning of this year been closely monitoring all ships and fishingvessels  moving towards Yemen to foil any attempt by bin Laden and other members of Al Qaeda to escapefrom Pakistan to Yemen by sea and to smuggle out weapons, particularly missiles, belonging to them.  Eventhough the Government of Yemen has been ostensibly co-operating with the US in its operations againstYemen-based dregs of Al Qaeda and the IIF and the US has praised Yemen's co-operation openly, US intelligenceofficials reportedly suspect that the co-operation has not been whole-hearted and that the Yemeniintelligence, or at least some sections of it, have been helping the terrorists on the sly while making apretense of co-operating with the US.

The US intelligence has also been closely monitoring all ships originating from North Korea to detectmissile shipments bound for the Gulf region, lest some of these missiles find their way into the arsenal ofthe Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq as well as for Pakistan, particularly after it was established that inreturn for the supply of missiles, Pakistan has clandestinely transferred to North Korea equipment andtechnology for enrichment of weapon-grade uranium.

How to stop the proliferation of North Korean missiles to Iran, Syria, Libya and Pakistan is a subjectwhich has been under discussion in the US Administration and Congress since 1998.  In the past, Pakistanhad been receiving its clandestine missile consignments from China and North Korea by sea.  Since theappointment of Mr. Richard Armitage as Deputy Secretary of State in the current Bush Administration, Pakistanand North Korea have been worried because in a paper on US policy options towards North Korea submitted to theUS House of Representatives on March 4,1999, Mr. Armitage,  then a private security consultant, had, inter alia, recommended as follows:

"Should diplomacy fail, the United States would have to consider two alternative courses, neither ofwhich is attractive.  One is to live with and deter a nuclear North Korea armed with delivery systems,with all its implications for the region.  The other is preemption, with the attendant uncertainties.  This would involve a more ready and robust posture, including a willingness to interdict North Korean missileexports on the high seas."

Ever since the Bush Administration came to office in the beginning of 2001, Pakistan has started gettingmany of  its missile supplies from China by road along the Karakoram Highway.  The WashingtonTimes reported on August 6, 2001, that American satellite monitoring of the area had detected a movementof  12 consignments of Chinese missiles by truck  on May 1 on the China-Pakistan border.  Though ships and aircraft are still used, the reliance on them is being reduced.

During the visit of the Chinese Prime Minister, Mr. Zhu Rongji, to Pakistan in May, 2001, Islamabad hadreportedly taken up with China the question of allowing future missile consignments from North Korea to cometo Pakistan by road via China and the Northern Areas of Pakistan through the KarakoramHighway. China apparently agreed to this.  In the beginning of this year, after India mobilised itstroops on the Pakistani border increasing fears of a possible war over Pakistani sponsorship of terrorism inIndian territory, North Korea reportedly rushed to Pakistan fresh consignments of missiles by road. Inaddition to this, at least one consignment was moved by air in July, 2002.

It is likely that after the interception of the Yemen-bound consignment by the Spanish vessels at therequest of the US, Pakistan will in future totally avoid the use of planes and ships and rely only on theKarakoram Highway for the movement of sensitive nuclear and missile supplies. 

Pakistan would also be keenly watching whether the US confiscates these missiles or returns them to Yemen. 

(The writer is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat. Govt. of India, and, presently,Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai