Well Laid Plans Go Awry

Just what went wrong in West Bengal on May 10? At the end of the day, the toll readseven killed -- a spectacular outbreak of violence after a relatively peaceful campaign inyears. Over 80 were arrested and repoll was ordered in 33 polling stations. Clearly thefragile peace was the proverbial calm before the storm with the two major camps -- theruling Left Front and the Trinamool-Congress alliance -- reserving their worst for the last. Chief Electoral Officer Sabyasachi Sen was hard pressed to maintain a semblance of order as his best laid plans went awry after a promising beginning.

It appears both camps resorted to rigging wherever possible. TMC sources complained ofintimidation, impersonation and booth capturing at Belgachia (E), Beliaghata and Bijpurconstituencies. Congress leader Oscar Fernandes alleged massive booth capturing at Burdwanand Midnapore districts. There were similar complaints from Howrah and Hooghly districts.On the other hand, the CPI(M) state secretary Anil Biswas alleged booth capturing inHariharpara, Bhagawangola and Lalgola areas of Murshidabad constituency. In Jadavpore,where state Chief Minister Buddhadev Bhattacharya is contesting actress Madhabi Mukherjee,there were complaints of intimidation from both sides. Honours even? TMC sources allegedthat with the help of the state administration, the LF rigging was massive and widespread.

The death of a 42-year-old man at Beliaghata was particularly horrendous. He wascarrying food for TMC workers at a polling station when bombs began to explode and peoplebegan to scatter. The police caught up with him as he ran and apparently forced him into alocal pond. "I can"t swim, please don"t hit me," he screamed.Eyewitnesses said the police continued to hit him with their lathis until he could notmove and local people later removed him limp from the pond. He later died in hospital.Police top brass pleaded ignorance of the incident, which meant the guilty policemen wouldprobably go scot-free.

The situation in greater Calcutta area was disturbed, especially after 12 noon. In someareas, especially in Muslim-dominated constituencies in south-west Calcutta, presidingofficers allegedly played a partisan role by allowing people to vote several times . So howfair or otherwise were the 2001 Assembly polls? Without the details of the situation onpoll day from the 17 districts, it would be difficult to answer. But with an electorate of4,86,00,000 and a total population of 75 million, it has to be admitted, the violence,though regrettable, was perhaps not extensive.

At the day's end, a national TV network predicted in its exit poll that the the LFwould win 150 seats and the TMC alliance 130-135 seats out of 294. However, the samplingswere taken up to noon. And most incidents occured after that, the trouble in some areascontinuing well into the afternoon. Therefore, the findings could not necessarily be takenas representative of the day's trend. In any case, a sampling taken from around 2,000voters (out of 4.8 crore voters!) in around 30-40 constituencies at random can at bestindicate very broad trends in a politically complex state like West Bengal.

Both the LF and TMC circles rejected the figures with both claiming certain majority.However, the body language of the TMC and Congress leaders was defeatist, whereas the LFcamp appeared more composed. The LF leaders admitted that they were looking at around160-165 seats for themselves, a slender majority, which means the Opposition could end upwinning around 115 to 125 seats. Though this would be beyond Mamata Banerjee's bestexpectations, the outcome would certainly serve as a warning to the LF to clean up its actor else.