Watch Out For Ramzan

Though the horrendous terrorist strikes of September 11, 2001, in New Yorkand Washington DC were carried out on a Tuesday, the previous major strikes ofthe terrorist organisations, which are members of Osama bin Laden'sInternational Islamic Front for Jehad Against the US and Israel, were generally,but not always, carried out on a Friday.

The Fridays of the holy fasting period of Ramzan are particularly importantfor them for reminding the world of their presence, their faith and theirobjective.  Friday is often the preferred day for terrorist acts meant bythem to be acts of punishment inflicted on those whom they view as their enemy.

There is, therefore, an urgent need for heightened vigilance in the dayspreceding and during the forthcoming Ramzan fasting period, starting fromNovember 17,2001, all over the world and particularly in the US, the UK andIndia.  This becomes even more necessary after a careful examination of thevideo-recording of bin Laden's latest message telecast by the Al Jazeera TVchannel of Qatar on November 3,2001.

His virulent attack on the UN in his telecast could be a signal for hisassociates in the US and elsewhere to target the UN in their operations inreprisal for the US-led attacks on Afghanistan since October 7,2001.

The telecast message of bin Laden has hardly any words of regret or apologyto the Afghan people for causing their present suffering because of theactivities of his organisation from their territory.  Though it is couchedin defiant language, one could, through careful examination, detect a note ofdisappointment over the lack of any spectacular street reactions in the Islamicworld against the allied bombing.

The USA's riposte to his telecast through a statement in Arabic over the AlJazeera  by a former US Ambassador to Damascus was unnecessary.  TheUS should avoid a slanging match with him.  Only he would be thebeneficiary of an exchange of rhetoric before TV cameras.  bin Laden'smessage should have been taken seriously in private for strengthening securitymeasures and ignored with contempt in public.  US and other world leadersshould not needlessly impart dignity to his personality by taking cognisance ofhim and his statements in public.  He is a terrorist and should be treatedas such.

With the winter already knocking on the door in Afghanistan, as evidenced bythe crash of a US helicopter, which, according to the US authorities, was due tosevere cold, the ground and air operations are bound to slow down byNovember-end, particularly in the North, even if kept sustained during thefasting period.

The USA should not relent in its air strikes on the Taliban (largelyPakistani) concentrations in the North, whenever the weather conditions permitthe carpet bombing.  It is disappointing that despite the damages, whichmust have been inflicted on the Taliban formations for nearly a week now by theB-52 bombings, the Northern Alliance still fights shy of a determined forwardmovement.  Its hesitancy is enabling the Taliban to regroup with the helpof the flood of new volunteers from Pakistan.

Pakistani media has estimated the number of new Pakistani tribal volunteerswho have flocked to join the Taliban militia since October 7 at about 2,500, butthis writer's estimate based on independent reports is much higher---around3,000 plus the Saudis and Yemenis, who have been coming in without being stoppedby the Pakistani authorities.

Unless Pakistan's military-intelligence establishment is forced by the US tostop this influx, the allied effort will continue to remain bogged down, as ithas been till now.

The arrest and execution of Abdul Haq, a pro-US mujahideen leader, by theTaliban last week and the subsequent rout by the Taliban of the followers ofHamid Karzai, former Deputy Foreign Minister, who is also reputed to be close tothe US, underline the futility of covert actions mounted across thePakistan-Afghanistan border, with the Pakistani military-intelligenceestablishment alerting the Taliban leadership about all movements from thePakistani side.

The epicentre of the covert actions should be shifted to the North, but,unfortunately, once the winter sets in,  the scope for effective covertactions from the North would also diminish.

In Afghanistan, the ideal operational period for overt military as well asfor covert actions is May-November, but much time was unfortunately lost by theallies in an unnecessary debate over the future political dispensation in Kabul.

In its efforts to mount an effective covert action, the CIA seems to befocussing mostly on known faces, who had fought along with the variousMujahideen groups and the Taliban and then  fallen out with them.

There does not appear to have been any effort to locate the old pro-communistPashtoon officers of Najibullah's army and seek their ideas and co-operation asto how to get rid of the Taliban.  Najibullah himself, his brother, whoheaded the Presidential security guard, and his intelligence (Khad) chief wereexecuted by the Taliban, but many other Pashtoon officers of his army escaped toother countries and settled down there, including in India.

It is important to seek their support.  India and Russia might be ableto help the US in this regard.  Before 1992, India had a long history ofco-operative relationship with Najibullah's military-intelligence establishment. The broken threads must be picked up.

This writer would like to reiterate again, as he had done before, that if theUS wants the allied campaign to succeed in rooting out terrorism from thisepicentre, it should not allow its strategies and tactics to be distorted byundue deference to the views and sensitivities of Gen. Pervez Musharraf.

From the beginning, this writer has been critical of the war againstterrorism as conceived, planned and being executed by the US.  While hestill stands by this criticism, he feels at the same time that now that the UShas gone into battle against the terrorists according to its own lights, itshould not be allowed to fail whatever be the grievances of India against theUS.

Once the battle has started, it is in India's interest and in the interest ofthe US and the rest of the world that it succeeds in eliminating theAfghan-based terrorist groups. Whatever assistance the US needs--- intelligence,logistics, communication interception facilities from Indian soil, joint covertactions, clandestine talent-spotting etc ---should be readily given, whilecontinuing to express privately our reservations over some aspects of the USpolicy relating to Pakistan.  This should be one of the main themes of theforthcoming discussions of the Indian Prime Minister, Mr.A.B.Vajpayee, withPresident George Bush Jr in Washington DC.

An Afghanistan free of terrorism and free of Pakistan's strangle-hold wouldeventually facilitate India's counter-terrorism tasks. 

(The author is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. ofIndia, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai)