UPS AND DOWNS

When the results started pouring in for the four assembly elections, they were more or less on expected lines. UP appeared headed towards another hung house, though the details spoke the story of a significant churning. The Congress won Punjab, though not on the lines exit and opinion polls had predicted, made a comeback in Uttaranchal and seemed set on forming another government in Manipur. The outstanding feature of the assembly poll results could only have seemed ominous for theBJP: it had lost ground almost everywhere—in UP, Uttaranchal and Punjab, where it is the Shiromani Akali Dal's junior partner in any case.

But nowhere was its position poised more precariously than in the Hindi heartland of Uttar Pradesh where its major adversaries, the SP and theBSP, made significant gains at its expense. With the SP improving on its last assembly tally of 110 and theBSP excelling with some deft social engineering—putting up candidates from upper castes and minority communities—the state appeared headed for another hung assembly, the third time in 10 years, making government formation an uphill—if not impossible—task. After the 1996 assembly elections, it had taken almost six months for a government to form. This time, it seems like anybody's guess on how long it would take after caste-based voting had forced another fractured mandate.

Emerging as the single largest party, the SP would be the natural claimant to be invited first and Mulayam Singh Yadav has been making noises to suggest that he is within striking range. The only problem before him is how he will find backers. Sonia Gandhi's Congress is one option. Despite the angry words exchanged between the two leaders during the election campaign, more and more UP Congressmen are of the view that it should join the government. Party leaders have expressed the view that an alliance government in Lucknow could pave the way for more such future alliances, even at the national level. Says Congress general secretary Ghulam Nabi Azad, "We will cooperate with anyone who can keep theBJP out of power," hinting therefore that a post-poll adjustment with the SP could not be ruled out to strengthen 'secular' forces.

According to the SP's calculations, it would look for support amongst Kalyan Singh's Rashtriya Kranti Party, Kurmi outfit Apna Dal, independents and of course the Congress. There were indications that the moment Mulayam threw his hat into the ring, theBSP would split, as it has in the past, for the SP and allies to reach the magic figure. Says Amar Singh, Mulayam's confidant and party general secretary: "We will form the government, just wait and see."

Whatever gains the SP has made is thanks to the all-out campaigning by Mulayam. Much before others started out, he was on the campaign trail, moving from village to village. Also, his organisational skills helped him mobilise his workers across the state while other parties were still tackling dissent and infighting.

None of the three big players—theBJP, the SP or the BSP—seem close to an absolute majority of 202 seats. And with no pre-poll alliances—in fact, with considerable pre-poll animosity between potential partnersBJP and BSP on the one hand and the Congress and SP on the other—the question of who would form a government in UP remained just that: a question with no easy answers.

In a closely-fought electoral battle, where the margins of victory were razorthin—BJP-RLD candidate Babulal defeated the BSP's Rajkumar Chahar by a mere 67 votes in Agra—the SP shot into the lead from the time the first results came in and maintained that lead till the end. Mulayam demonstrated, as he had in the 1999 Lok Sabha elections, that his organisational abilities were monumental. He had single-handedly campaigned on a scale that had covered literally every constituency, making inroads even in areas beyond the SP's natural territory, the mbc-dominated Bundelkhand for instance.

The most amazing run came from Mayawati, theBSP boss, who was always regarded a dark horse. She had practically swept western UP and had made significant inroads into central and eastern UP. Her campaign, shorn of any glamour, fizz and rhetoric associated with the other parties, was largely 'underground' and proved that her Dalit votebank was intact. If anything, she had added more to her kitty. In what can only be described as unique social engineering, she had allotted party tickets to a large number of upper-caste or 'manuvadi' candidates—37 Brahmins, 36 Thakurs—in addition to a record number of 86 Muslim nominees. This way, she has been able to ensure that in addition to the Dalit and low-caste Muslim votes, she had got a fair section of caste Hindu votes as well.

It also became clear that Mayawati and theBSP would have a major role to play in forming a government. In fact, the two major parties have been eyeing theBSP as a stepping-stone to the throne, both doing it differently. That the BJP is more than keen to tie up with her—despite outgoing chief minister Rajnath Singh's objections—is obvious. Says Union minister Pramod Mahajan, "The ball is in theBSP's court but we have no objections." At a closed-door meeting held on the eve of the poll results coming out, at which both pro- andanti-BSP factions were present, both A.B. Vajpayee and L.K. Advani said they were against an alliance. The only argument in favour of propping up Mayawati was that theBJP had lost the Hindi heartland completely and was reduced to holding power in Gujarat. But with theBJP cadre already saying that Vajpayee had sacrificed power in state after state merely to continue at the Centre, the party's central leadership did not want to be seen as handing over the state to Mayawati.

On the other hand, not once during the campaign did Mayawati suggest that she was going to tie up with any party after the elections, despite rumours that a pre-poll understanding between her and theBJP had been reached. Asked for her reaction, Mayawati declined to say anything except to say that her party would form a government on her own.

As for the SP, party leaders say privately thatBSP members are "up for sale". In the run-up to the polls, UP was flush with rumours that both the SP and theBJP had put up dummy candidates in the BSP, preparing precisely for this eventuality. If theBSP splits yet again, what with its chunk of new Muslim legislators, there could be another cruel twist to Dalit realpolitik. And despite SP leaders like Amar Singh toning down their hard line on theBSP as it became evident that no one may have the numbers as the results started coming in, party leaders have also denied reports that former prime minister V.P. Singh was broker a peace between Mulayam Singh and Mayawati, both sworn foes.

In the expected post-poll scenario, the governor's role will be crucial (see interview). Established precedent says he would have to first invite the single largest pre-poll combine to form the government. He might decide, however, to give precedence a go-by and use his powers of discretion to invite a combination which he feels can offer a stable government. Or to recommend President's rule, to which UP is no stranger.

As for theBJP, the only thing that can be said in its favour is that it did not do as badly as some thought it would.In Lucknow, Vajpayee's blue-eyed boy, Lalji Tandon, lost his election. Considerable political importance is being attached to this as Lucknow is the prime minister's constituency and Tandon his main pointsman there. Despite losing a number of seats, the party must credit Rajnath for ensuring that the party did not go into oblivion. However, the party is now in a major quandary: where does the chief minister go? Rajnath has made it clear that he cannot work with Mayawati, even if aBJP-BSP alliance works out.In which case, the chances of him moving to Delhi cannot be ruled out. The calculations of theBJP leaders are different. According to one of them, the BJP favoured calling in the single largest party. Mulayam could not make up his numbers even with the help of the Congress, so they get the second call. If Mayawati agrees, they form a government, if not then the state is headed for President's rule.

A wry comment from a senior Lok Sabha MP summed up the thinking in the party: "Hindutva ke liye UP meingair-BJP sarkar behtar hai (For the cause of Hindutva, it is better to have anon-BJP government in UP)." He pointed out that the Ramjanmabhoomi issue was likely to flare up after March 15, the appointed date for commencing construction. If the SP were to form a government, Mulayam would have to deal with the situation, which would prove far less embarrassing for the Centre than having aBJP government face the music.

A senior party leader expressed the view—reportedly shared by the PM and home minister—that the government at the Centre could well do without having to accommodate theBSP in the Union cabinet, an inevitable fallout of an alliance in UP. Already, the Trinamul Congress is waiting in the wings and lures are being thrown out to the Nationalist Congress Party. The only circumstances under which Mayawati could be accommodated at the Centre would be if she renounced claims to chief ministership and that is improbable.

Another fear is that a tie-up with theBSP would annoy Rajnath, who's being commended for having saved the BJP from the ignominy of getting less than 60 seats. One senior leader even felt that the party would create "another Kalyan Singh" if it allied with Mayawati. The animosity between the two is as well known as is the friendship between Mayawati and the Lalji Tandon and Kalraj Mishra.

Party leaders also rationalised the imminent defeat by saying that "if the popular mood is in favour of Mulayam, let him form the government. If theBJP is in the opposition, it will recoup and do well in the 2004 Lok Sabha elections". The anti-incumbency wave against theBJP now would work to its advantage two years down the line, they added. If it supports theBSP, it would have to share responsibility for misgovernance during her tenure while also annoying its already upset upper-caste votebase.

TheBJP's philosophical acceptance of a probable defeat vanished the moment the leaders began speaking on the record. Rajnath was appreciative of the Doordarshan-Cfore exit poll after the first round of ballots in western UP, which put theBJP in the lead, but did an about turn when the second round exit-poll results were aired, showing up the party as a poor second to the SP. By the third round, he wasn't even willing to speak to Doordarshan. And at least one senior party leader has complained to Information and Broadcasting minister Sushma Swaraj about the "independent" DD exit poll, which gave theBJP a lot fewer seats than private channels like Aaj Tak and Zee News.

Curiously, none of the other parties were at all bothered about the exit poll results, theBSP least of all. The BJP's general secretary in charge of UP, Pyare Lal Khandelwal, expressed the view that "exit polls should be banned until the last round of polling. They do have some impact on the mind of the voter". If a poor result for a particular party is being projected in Punjab, it might well have an impact in Uttar Pradesh, he added.

At the same time, Khandelwal conducted his own exit poll, giving theBJP 85 seats out of 145 in the second round of polling. There was no exit poll for the third round, Khandelwal claiming that "our objective has been achieved". The purpose of theBJP's in-house poll was apparently to counter other exit polls, which party leaders felt were products of flimsy statistical fancies.

Overall, assuming theBJP doesn't relinquish its reservations about tying up with Mayawati, it seems the SP-Congress formula may come to fruition. Only, it has a troubled past to contend with.

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