Untangling The Knots

After having proclaimed a State of Emergency and suspended the Constitution, President General Pervez Musharraf finds himself tiedup in many knots. His political future and political stability in Pakistan would depend on how dexterously he is able to cut these knots:

Knot #1: The re-validation of his re-election as the President on October6, 2007, and his being sworn in. 
If he is not able to do it, he would cease to be a duly elected President and become a self-imposed President. However, this knot is the least difficult of the knots. 

Most of the members of the previous bench of the Supreme Court headed by Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhury, which was hearing the petitions challenging his re-election, have been sacked by Musharraf for refusing to take a new oath prescribed by him and he hasconstituted a new bench of judges perceived by him to be favourable to him. The new bench cannot deliver a judgement on the validity of Musharraf's re-election on the basis of the arguments, which had already been completed before the old bench. It has to re-start the case and hear the arguments afresh. 

The petitioners and their lawyers have refused to appear before the new bench on the ground that it is illegally constituted. The new bench may have no other option but to declare that the case had become pointless due to their refusal to appear before it. It can then lift the restriction imposed by the sacked bench on the declaration of the results of the October 6 election and on the swearing-in of the successful candidate as the President. This would pave the way for Musharraf being sworn-in.

Knot #2: The lifting of the Emergency. 
He is under pressure from large sections of his people as well as the Western powers, including the US, to immediately lift the Emergency. Even if he wants to oblige them, he cannot just now. Before lifting the Emergency, he has to get an Act of Indemnity passed by the National Assembly in the form of a Legal Framework Order in order to ensure that neither he nor his loyal colleagues and subordinates are impeached or criminally prosecuted for the unconstitutional and illegal things done by them under the Emergency. 

The present National Assembly in which his supporters are in a majority cannot do it since it completes its tenure on November 15,2007. He can arbitrarily extend its tenure by two or three months in order to get an Act of Indemnity passed by it, but this will add to the furore over his actions. The other option left to him is to expedite the elections and let the new National Assembly pass the Act of Indemnity protecting him and others from the legal consequences of their action in proclaiming the Emergency.

Knot # 3: Will the new National Assembly pass an Act of Indemnity? 
That depends on who wins the election. If the present coalition led by the Pakistan Muslim League (Qaide Azam), which has been loyal to Musharraf, wins a majority in the election, then the Act of Indemnity will be passed without difficulty. But if the parties opposed to him win a majority they may refuse to pass it, thus exposing him and his collaborators to impeachment or criminal prosecution. The political parties opposing him are threatening to boycott the elections if he does not lift the Emergency before the elections. In his heart of hearts, he might welcome a boycott so that his supporters win a majority and indemnify his actions. If his opponents decide to contest the elections even if the Emergency is not lifted, he may be tempted to manipulate the polls in order to prevent their getting a majority. This will further add to the instability.

Knot #4: Should he quit as the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS)? 
He has already made a commitment that he will resign as the COAS the moment he is re-elected as the President and will be sworn in as the President for a second time as a civilian. Will he keep up this commitment? The temptation to retain the post of COAS till the elections and the coming into office of a new Prime Minister will be strong. If the elections are won by his opponents and they try to have him impeached, he can stage another coup as the COAS and squash the impeachment moves as the President.

Till now, the Corps Commanders have been supporting him in all his erratic actions except in respect of the deal withMrs Benazir Bhutto. How long more will they continue to do so? He is becoming an increasing embarrassment for the country and the Army.

The US, which still has some clout in Pakistan, should give up its policy of keeping him sustained in power somehow or the other. Instead it should work out a quick and smooth way out of power for him without further loss of face. 

B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai.