UDF On Comeback Trail

Kerala continues to be a land coalitions are voted to power by turnseach time the state goes to polls. The Assembly elections in 2001 are not going to be muchdifferent. In fact, the outcome is likely to be a reversal of the 1996 elections. TheCongress led UDF is likely to win 78-83 seats, polling 45.38 per cent of the popular vote.The CPM-led LDF is likely to win 54-59 seats, a loss of 27 seats over its strength in thecurrent Assembly.

The Congress is riding the anti-incumbency phenomenon against the LDFgovernment. Despite the much talked about Peoples' Plan Campaign, a little overhalf the voters are unhappy with the performance of the government. The LDF has been ableto contain the anti-incumbency factor to an extent by fielding fresh candidates. Readingthe writing on the wall, the CPM replaced 30 sitting MLAs with young candidates. In fact,the CPM has decided to retire most of the ministers. This is bound to save it from anotherwise disastrous performance.

The Congress lost the initiative due to the prolonged factional feudbetween A. K. Antony and K. Karunakaran. The party is likely to loose 10-15 seats thanksto rebel candidates and the rival faction working to defeat each other’s candidates.

While the LDF has to contend with the poor image of the government, theCongress is perceived to be corrupt notwithstanding the clean image of Anthony. Nearly athird of the voters surveyed felt that the Congress has more corrupt leaders in the state.Almost an equal percentage felt so about the KEC(M). Moreover the allies' boat has beenrocked by sex scandals and local controversies.

The margins in Kerala have always been wafer thin. In the 1996 Assemblyelections 23 seats were decided with a victory margin of less than 2 per cent. Even in theforthcoming elections nearly 17-20 seats will be decided with a margin of less than 2 percent. That is how the BJP, with its steadily increasing vote share, will play a key rolein some 50 Assembly constituencies -- defeating a candidate by splitting votes.