Treading Around Terror

On his deathbed, the ailing Sheikh Mohammad Abdullahnominated his son as his political heir. Along with the gift of power, theSheikh delivered a warning: "The crown I am placing on your head", hetold Farooq Abdullah, "is made of thorns".

Jammu and Kashmir’s (J&K’s) new Chief Minister,Ghulam Nabi Azad, has been served warning of the grim realities of governing thestate in a less delicate fashion: if an alert Central Reserve Police Forcepatrol had not detected the bomb planted outside a Srinagar mosque on October28, his first task on taking office would have been commiserating with therelatives of the victims. And even as Azad was taking the formal oath of office,the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) set off a car bomb in the Nowgam area, not half adozen kilometres away.

Like every other chief administrator of J&K since 1988,Azad has promised to work to bring peace to the state, while at once making surehuman rights are not violated in the war against terror. He will most likelydiscover the task is a less than happy one. Just like his predecessors inoffice, Azad will have to confront one of the most bloody low-intensityconflicts in the world, while at once managing an unruly and fractious politicalcoalition, engaging with deep ethnic, religious and regional fissures, and allthe while working to rebuild institutions of governance undermined by decades ofneglect.

Since the India-Pakistan crisis of 2001-2002, violence inJ&K has been in steady decline. Judged by key indices, like the numbers ofterrorism-related incidents and fatalities, 2005 saw this trend deepen.Nonetheless, Azad has arrived in office at a time when the détente processfaces several serious challenges.

For one, the energetic earthquake-relief performance oforganisations of the Islamist right, like the Jamaat ud-Dawa (under whose bannerthe Lashkar-e-Toiba, LeT, currently operates) and al-Rashid Trust has won themrenewed legitimacy in Pakistan. Groups like the LeT are likely to try andcapitalise on the situation, a fact which the October 29 serial bombings in NewDelhi illustrated. Battered by criticism of his handling of the earthquake,Pakistani President, General Pervez Musharraf, may find it increasinglydifficult to confront the Islamists and their armies – assuming, of course,that he actually wishes to add to his multiple domestic challenges by doing so.

Second, no one is certain just where the dialogue between NewDelhi and the All Parties Hurriyat Conference (APHC) is headed. Prime MinisterManmohan Singh and APHC chairman Mirwaiz Umar Farooq were scheduled to hold asecond round of meetings, but some in the secessionist organisation have beenbacking away from the dialogue. Part of this is the consequence of pressure fromterrorist groups. The Hizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM), which rejects dialogue with NewDelhi, is promoting itself as an alternative political front. Its new website,www.hizbmedia.com, expressly projects the Islamist leader Syed Ali Shah Geelanias the political face of the terrorist group.

On ground, there are disturbing signs that terrorist groupsare starting to learn the central lesson of recent years: that, despite theoverall reduction in levels of violence, they can nevertheless act in ways thatallow a high degree of coercive control over civil society. One keymanifestation of this realisation is the growing pooling of resources byterrorist groups. While the JeM took responsibility for the November 2 bombingin Srinagar, for example, investigators have determined that the vehicle itselfwas purchased by an HM operative.

Such cooperation is not new – but does show that jihadigroups could demonstrate greater operational effectiveness than some hadexpected. Azad, like his predecessors, is likely to try and keep the pressure onterrorist groups, not just through coercive means, but also by trying to bringpolitical pressure to bear through building public support for theIndia-Pakistan détente process.

If terrorist groups choose to exert pressure on the peaceprocess, political interventions of this kind may not prove useful. New Delhiseems increasingly certain the October 29 serial bombings at the Indian capitalwere conducted by the Pakistan-based LeT. On November 12, Delhi Police andIntelligence Bureau personnel detained an alleged Lashkar operative, Tariq AhmadDar, on suspicion of having led the cell which carried out the bombings. Dar,interestingly, had been arrested earlier this year on charges of funnellingfunds from Saudi Arabia to the Lashkar in J&K, and was out of prison onbail, pending trial. It seems increasingly likely that the Lashkar trail willlead on to Pakistan – something that could have an impact on the peace processitself.

Given the strength of its infrastructure and its deep linksto Pakistan’s military establishment, the Lashkar is, without doubt, theprincipal terrorist threat to India today. It is, however, far from the onlyone. Bilal Ahmad Beig’s Jammu and Kashmir Islamic Front (JKIF), which bombedDelhi’s Lajpat Nagar market in 1996, has shown signs in recent months ofrecovering from its deep penetration by Indian counter-intelligence. Both theJeM and HM, too, have carried out operations outside of J&K in the past. TheDelhi bombings have once again made clear the stark fact that, as long asterrorist groups possess the capabilities to carry out violent acts, they willsooner or later use what is available. Of groups with both the intention tocarry out terror attacks across India, and the capabilities needed to do so,there is no shortage.

J&K’s future, then, remains as profoundly linked to thecourse of events in Pakistan as ever before. Azad’s accession to office willyield significant political gains – not the least, the restoration of faith inthe institutional processes of democracy, and the affirmation of the fact that governmentsin the state are made by voters, not bureaucrats in New Delhi. Beyond that,though, terror seems set to continue to shape the terms of political discoursein J&K. For years, Pakistan has put off a decision on whether it wishes todecisively act to curb terrorist capabilities. Until New Delhi finds means ofcompelling it to do so – or Pakistan is persuaded that such action is in itsown best interests – the path to peace will remain shrouded in uncertainty

Praveen Swami is Deputy Editor and Chief of Bureau, FrontlineMagazine, New Delhi. Courtesy, the South Asia Intelligence Review of theSouth Asia Terrorism Portal