'There Can Clearly Be Dialogue'

Full text of the interview on PBS' Newshour at Washington, DC, June 10, 2002.

Ms. Warner: Deputy Secretary Armitage joins us now. Welcome, Mr.Secretary.

Richard Armitage: Good evening, Ms. Warner.

Ms. Warner: Good evening. India today reopened its airspace toPakistan. Is the crisis over?

Richard Armitage: Well, I don't think when you have nearly a millionmen shouting and glaring and occasionally shooting across a disputed border that you cansay the crisis has passed, but certainly tensions are down.

Ms. Warner: Musharraf has previously pledged to stop the infiltration.He has even said he'd stop the infiltration. India never credited those pledges. Why didIndia seem to believe it more coming from you?

Richard Armitage: Well, I believe that both the Indian leaders and theleadership of Pakistan are responding to the international concern expressed about theneed to avoid this crisis, first of all. Second, I believe, as you've seen from Indianofficial statements, the Indian Government now agrees with the West that infiltrations aredown, and I believe they give President Musharraf credit for having done that.

Ms. Warner: Tell me, were you able to show them for instance, USintelligence reports showing the infiltrations down?

Richard Armitage: I was able to talk, I think convincingly, with ourIndian colleagues about the fact that both the US and Great Britain find that theinfiltrations are down, and it seems now that Indian intelligence agrees with us.

Ms. Warner: Before you left on the trip, how close did you think thesetwo countries really were to going to war and perhaps even with the danger of that slidinginto a kind of nuclear conflict?

Richard Armitage: Well, I think that the international community, andparticularly the press, was more hysterical on this issue than we were; but clearly therewas an escalatory trend that didn't seem to have an end point short of war. There was afeeling in the US Government that if we could get a break, if we could call for a halt inthe escalation, then good, solid, reasonable leadership on both sides of the problem wouldfind ways to de-escalate, and this apparently has happened.

Ms. Warner: Tell us a little bit about your meeting with Musharraf.The reports are that you talked very bluntly with him, that you had an intelligencedossier showing army and Pakistani intelligence support for the militants in Kashmire,that you even said that if this didn't stop the US might have to move its bases fromPakistan to India. Are those reports correct?

Richard Armitage: Well, I don't know where you got those reports. Ididn't carry any dossiers at all. I had a very straightforward and frank discussion withPresident Musharraf, who is a man of great dignity and honor, and very straightforward.But we didn't have to waste much time with small talk. We got right into the hopes andaspirations of the people of Pakistan, as well as the problems, and most particularly thepossibility of al-Qaida using the Kashmir situation to actually bring about a war betweenPakistan and India, and the absolute need to avoid this.

Ms. Warner: So how do you read now his intentions and his capabilitieswhen it comes to really cracking down on this infiltration?

Richard Armitage: We value the assurances that President Musharrafgave to the US Government, in effect to the President of the United States. We think hewill exert every effort to stop the infiltration. I think even the most ardentnationalists on the Indian side would say that President Musharraf cannot stop everything,but that he needs to be seen as exerting every effort in his capacity. And I think we'llsee that.

Ms. Warner: Do you think that exposes him to political danger at home?

Richard Armitage: Well, I think clearly there's a domestic backlash ofsome sort. But I well recall that prior to the January 12 speech which President Musharrafmade there were pundits who were saying that no leader in Pakistan could say what he saidand still hold his streets together. He made a very valiant speech and he held thingstogether very well, and I think the same will be true this time.

Ms. Warner: Now did you have equally straightforward talks with theIndians in terms of the need for India to reciprocate?

Richard Armitage: I had very straightforward talks with all of the topIndian leadership ad seriatim, ending up with the Prime Minister. They were full andfrank. There's a great variety of opinion in the Indian Government, as one would expect ofa great democracy, so there was a full airing of the situation, I can assure you.

Ms. Warner: And so what is your understanding of what India isprepared to do if it becomes -- it seems to be convinced that Musharraf is serious here?

Richard Armitage: I have seen today that India has reestablishedcommercial air links and allowed overflight from Pakistan. They have named an ambassadorto be the High Commissioner to Islamabad, and my understanding is that the fleets havestarted to sail back south. These are very good beginnings, and I'm sure if the IndianGovernment is convinced that things are moving in the right direction regarding theassurances of the Government of Pakistan, one could expect further de-escalation.

Ms. Warner: Now Pakistan of course wants really to open a dialogue,they keep saying, about all the issues between them, including the future of Kashmir. Doyou think India is ready to do that?

Richard Armitage: I think it might be a bit premature to start thattomorrow; but as things de-escalate, clearly there can be a dialogue. I'll note that in1972 when both countries signed the Simla accord, they both acknowledged that the questionof Kashmir was a bilateral issue. They have had dialogue in the past on this issue. Iexpect in the future they will be able to engage in it.

Ms. Warner: But Pakistan would also like some international mediation.Do you see that kind of role?

Richard Armitage: I don't think mediation is in the cards right now,but clearly the recent crisis has put Kashmir on the international agenda in a way that ithas never been before. And there will be a lot of international attention to attempting tofind a resolution to the question.

Ms. Warner: On the immediate Kashmir crisis, the two countries have --they both seem to be talking about some sort of monitoring or verification along the Lineof Control, but they have conflicting proposals. What do you see as a workable solutionthere and did you discuss that with them?

Richard Armitage: I've discussed the monitoring proposal with bothsides. From the Pakistani point of view, they could have Indian and Pakistani monitors aslong as there was an international component. Their feeling is it's very difficult to takepeople who have been shooting at each other one day, and make them join hands and jointlymonitor the next.

From the Indian point of view, this should be strictly a bilateral monitoringmechanism, with only Indian and Pakistani troops taking part. I suspect things willclarify over time, but there's no resolution to that yet.

Ms. Warner: Do you see a US role?

Richard Armitage: I think we've already had a role in moving back andforth to India, so that will continue. I don't right now see the need for US monitors.

Ms. Warner: And what about the sharing of intelligence in terms ofbeing able to at least from the air monitor or verify what's going on.

Richard Armitage: No, I think that this is very much something thatcan be considered, and if there's a willingness from both sides to engage in it, I thinkthe United States would be delighted.

Ms. Warner: If this de-escalation works, what will it take to make itstable enough that it just doesn't flare up again in six months. We have all theseperiodic flare-ups between India and Pakistan.

Richard Armitage: Well, we've had 55 years of periodic flare-upsbetween India and Pakistan. I think that the highest order on the agenda is to have aregional de-escalation in terms of al-Qaida and terrorist presence, and terrorism as a wayto accomplish political objectives. And after that, as happened both in Afghanistan and inPakistan, then I think the regional situation will be much better and be much moreconducive to a logical discussion of the future of Kashmir.

Ms. Warner: Speaking of al-Qaida in that region of the world, thealleged "dirty-bomber" plotter that was revealed today was arrested flying backto Chicago from Pakistan in early May, apparently held meetings with other al-Qaidaofficials in major cities in Pakistan, Lahore and Karachi. Does Pakistan really remainstill a hotbed of international terrorist activity, not just against India or in Kashmir,but against the US?

Richard Armitage: I think the way you put it, that Pakistan is ahotbed of international terrorist activity, is not the way I would describe it. CertainlyPakistan has jihadist elements in its society, and certainly they've been aneighbor to Afghanistan, and a lot of that trouble has crossed the border. But I wouldnote that Pakistan has been very helpful in a number of occasions, and has arrested manybad elements. I fully expect that that cooperation will continue, and I fully expect thatSecretary Rumsfeld and President Musharraf will talk about further cooperation fromPakistan in the future.

Ms. Warner: Secretary Rumsfeld does get to the region tomorrow. Whatis his brief?

Richard Armitage: I think, first of all, he will stop in Delhi to talkto Indian officials about their appreciation of the last few days over the Line ofcontrol, and he'll be traveling on to Pakistan to share those views with PresidentMusharraf. I think clearly there are other strictly bilateral issues -- the war onterrorism -- Mr. Rumsfeld will want to talk to President Musharraf about.

Ms. Warner: All right, Secretary Armitage. Thanks very much.

Richard Armitage: Thank you.