The Slipping Frontier

Even as Pakistan grappled with a President who refused to go ‘quietly intothe night’, the state of play in the conflict afflicted North West FrontierProvince (NWFP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) has worsenedin recent weeks. With General (Retired) Pervez Musharraf gone, the multipleinsurgencies across Pakistan will continue to create greater troubles for thealready embattled coalition government. 

On August 15, 2008, NWFP senior minister and head of the government’s peacecommittee, Bashir Ahmad Bilour, claimed that the ‘peace agreement’ withmilitants in Swat was still intact, and the government remained open tonegotiations to end the unrest. Commenting on the ongoing military operationsagainst the militants, he argued, "This [operation] is the government’sreaction to the militants’ actions (which) they took in violation of the peaceagreement signed with the government." Further, Bilour asserted that thegovernment was ready to talk to the militants in accordance with the peace dealthat the two sides signed on May 21, 2008. He claimed the militants did nothonour the agreement. The NWFP government re-launched military operationsagainst the militants on July 29, after the latter demanded that the provincialgovernment quit within five days for "not honouring the peaceagreement". For the record, the May 21 peace accord did bring a momentarypeace in the province, and remains formally in place, since neither of the twosides has scrapped the pact.

670 persons, including 297 civilians, 101 security force (SF) personnel and272 militants, have already died in 2008 (data till August 15), and there hasbeen a drastic increase in the violence after the breakdown of the truce on June9. Since then, at least 302 persons – 90 civilians, 47 SF personnel and 165militants – have been killed. [It is necessary to note that, given Islamabad'sunderstated accounts, the suppression of the Press and erratic reportage fromall the conflict zones, the actual numbers of fatalities could be considerablyhigher than those indicated above].

In the renewed military offensive ‘Operation Rah-e-Haq’, the militants’positions in Matta and Kabal, the Taliban strongholds in Swat District, havebeen targeted vigorously. The SFs are presently hitting the mountain positionsof the Taliban in the Peuchar, Namal, Sijbanr, Gat Shawar and Wenai areas ofMatta Sub-division and Totano Banda and Deolai of the Kabal Sub-division. Inresponse, the Taliban has, unsurprisingly, targeted the military in Swat, and,for the first time, the various security checkpoints in Saidu Sharif and Mingora,the Headquarters of the Swat District. A number of girls’ schools have alsocome under sustained attack. While the Taliban has targeted these two towns inthe past through bomb blasts, including suicide bombings, the present seriesconstituted the first attacks on girls' schools and SF checkpoints. In thepost-truce period, the Taliban has also attacked policemen in the adjoiningBuner District in what is a clear indication of their spread and influence, asalso their intent to widen the conflict. Analysts like Rahimullah Yusufzai notethat the militants will also try to launch attacks on SFs in the other adjoiningDistricts, such as Shangla, Upper Dir, Lower Dir and Malakand Agency. Yusufzaiobserves, 

Despite denials by government functionaries, it appears that Taliban have been trying to organise in the two Dir Districts either by finding local recruits or by sending their members from other places to Upper Dir and Lower Dir. The attacks on girls' schools in Upper Dir was clearly evidence that Taliban militants had infiltrated the District and found some local supporters. Artillery shells fired by the military in Swat also reportedly fell in the mountains of Nihag Darra in Upper Dir District and fuelled concern among the people living there. 

The attacks on girls’ schools have raised the concerns not only of securityagencies but also of others in the government and civil society. The militantsin Swat destroyed 28 girls’ schools during the fresh wave of violence thaterupted on July 29, in addition to 59 schools they had set alight or blown up inmonths of militancy before May 21. There were 566 girl schools — 489 primary,51 middle, 22 high and four higher secondary schools — of which 159 schoolsare now non-functional. Of these, 87 have been torched or destroyed, while 62have shut down due to the refusal of female teachers to attend, in view ofprecarious security situation, putting an end to the education of 17,200 girlstudents. The female literacy rate in Swat stands at 22.89 per cent and that ofmales at 52.79 per cent, with an overall literacy rate of 37 per cent. Thedropout rate, particularly among girl students, has is rising dramatically. 

Taliban spokesman Muslim Khan has said the aim of destroying schools was topressure the government and replace the education system: 

At present, we are using the torching and bombing of schools as a war tactic against the government. Also, this education system has been producing corrupt people and needs to be reformed. Musharraf and Zardari are the production of this education system, but what (have) they made of this country. 

Muslim Khan warned that, after the destruction of girls’ schools, it wouldbe the turn of boys’ schools. Maulana Fazlullah, the Taliban leader in Swat,has termed female education "a source of obscenity."

Military authorities have said their operations would continue till the areaswere cleared of militants. "This operation is going to be decisive,"Brigadier Zia Anjum Bodla, Army’s Divisional Commander, told journalists atthe Circuit House in Gul Kadda on August 4. On its part, Taliban spokesmanMaulvi Umar told Dawn that they would "retaliate with fullforce" if the government "imposed a war" on them. On July 30, theTehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) threatened to mount attacks across Pakistan inresponse to the renewed military action in Swat: "We will start operationsin the entire country, in the entire province... because we consider this anaction against all Taliban… We will soon take a decision on startingoperations". 

An index of the grim situation in the Frontier is visible in the fact that theprovincial capital, Peshawar, is extremely vulnerable, with militants poundingat its doors. As the Taliban advance gradually towards Peshawar, the NWFP PoliceChief and top administrators issued warnings that, unless the government takesdecisive action, Peshawar would fall. "Peshawar is in a state of siege andif Peshawar falls, the rest of the Districts in the NWFP would fall likeninepins", an official told Dawn on June 25, 2008. Peshawar hosts theheadquarters of the Army’s 11th Corps, the paramilitary Frontier Corps, theFrontier Constabulary and the Police. Police Stations in rural Peshawar havelong given up patrolling at night "after a contingent was blown up by arocket-propelled grenade and charred bodies of policemen were retrieved andburied without allowing their dear ones to see their faces for the lasttime." 

According to journalist Ashfaq Yusufzai, "Not one of Peshawar’s 30police stations stays open after 8 p.m. Police in rural Peshawar have stoppednight patrols after a patrol was blown up in a grenade attack on May 29."Militants operating in the Matani, Adezai, Badhber and Mathra areas of Peshawarhave regularly been attacking girls’ schools, CD and video centres, barbershops and Police establishments. Apart from the fact that rocket attacks were onthe increase in Peshawar, militants have also resorted to blowing up electricitytowers, a tactic applied regularly in Balochistan. Peshawar, with an estimatedpopulation of 2.3 million and counting, for instance, was plunged into completedarkness as militants blew up the 500KV major pylon near Sheikh Mohammadi GridStation in the early hours of August 8. The blast also caused power suspensionto the entire Peshawar District and some parts of the Southern Districts –areas of Kohat, Hangu, Lachi, Gorgorai and Pabbi. An official of the PeshawarElectric Supply Company said the attack was a reaction to the anti-Talibanoperation in the Matni area. The same pylon had been blown up by militants onMay 12. According to the Globe and Mail, militants have started openly enteringPeshawar to threaten businesses they disapprove of, such as music shops.

In reality, the augmented presence of the Taliban in Peshawar is not unusual.They have always had a significant presence in the town and in the surroundingregions, including the Khyber Agency, Darra Adam Khel, Mohmand Agency, Shabqadar,Michni and Mardan. Furthermore, the capacities to repel any Taliban push towardsPeshawar are lacking. For instance, the Inspector General of the NWFP Police,Malik Naveed Khan, said at Peshawar, on June 12, 2008, that the province had a40 percent deficit in Police Stations and Police Lines buildings.

A trust deficit has dominated the dialogue between the government and therebels. While the Taliban, operating under the command of Maulana Fazlullah,have claimed that the government has not withdrawn troops nor vacated SFcheckpoints nor released imprisoned militants, as agreed, the provincialgovernment and security agencies argue that the Taliban has not disbanded itsmilitia, they continue to carry out suicide attacks and to target the SFs andgovernment installations. 

The NWFP government is currently deliberating a three-year ‘comprehensivepeace plan’, with an estimated cost of approximately USD Four billion whichaims at reducing the militancy by 30 per cent. Among its objectives are thereduction of attacks on security forces, prevention of suicide attacks, reversalof the loss of civil governance, retrieval of areas lost to militants andregaining the space currently dominated by the forces of radical Islam. Withinthis rubric, the provincial government intends to: 

• Increase the Police force with additional 14,000 personnel 
• Mobilise around 4,000 village peace committees 
• Modernize at least 500 seminaries 
• Rehabilitate 12,000 former militants 
• Generate at least 7,000 new jobs per annum for educated youth 
• Generate more than 10,000 new daily wages jobs through infrastructure projects 
• Initiate reforms in the Police force and a revival of the executive magistracy 
• Set up 1,000 community FM radio stations 
• Capacity building in the Police and Frontier Constabulary, including training and increasing their strength 
• A Provincial Livelihood Programme to develop an income-generation strategy 
• Closer co-ordination and a mechanism for institutional support among various security agencies, including the Army, Frontier Corps, Frontier Constabulary and the Police 

Khalid Aziz, a former chief secretary of the province and part of the Plandrafting process, has however, conceded that the provincial government does nothave the capacity to implement such an all-encompassing plan, and has thecapacity to utilise only up to USD 800 million. Chief Minister Ameer Haider KhanHoti, though, is optimistic that international donors would respond to his callfor contributing to the plan: "There is a great deal of interest. TheSaudis, Americans, European Union, Scandinavians and Chinese have all showninterest in the peace plan." It remains to be seen how foreign funding fora security plan will be realized in a country like Pakistan where anti-Americanand anti-West sentiments are constantly on the high, and where the state’scapacities for implementation are poor and are being further and continuouslyeroded by militancy. 

The provincial government claims to have adopted a ‘multi-trackapproach’, instead of focusing merely on a ‘military solution’. However,this approach does not appear to have registered much of a beginning. On the onehand, the dialogue with the Taliban has remained a non-starter, while, on theother, military responses have only deepened the conflict. Complicating theissue for Islamabad is the fact that both negotiated settlements and a recourseto the use of force alone have augmented radicalization in the region. 

A critical objective of any plan to bring normalcy to the conflict-wrackedFrontier must be the implementation of a compatible strategy in FATA. Peacecannot be achieved in the NWFP without first achieving normalcy and a semblanceof order in FATA. There is, for instance, a clear link between the militancy inSwat and Bajaur Agency in the FATA. The Taliban have been sending fighters fromBajaur and other tribal areas to reinforce the militant ranks in Swat wheneverthe need arises. In fact, the Taliban are able to "receive reinforcementsfrom all over NWFP and even from other provinces in times of need."

Peace in Swat is also linked to the militancy in Darra Adam Khel, Hangu andWaziristan. The NWFP government has, in fact, held a dialogue, separately, withthe Taliban in Darra, Hangu, and Dir, and has also resorted to militaryoperations in these areas. A combination of dialogue and force is being usedacross the NWFP and FATA. Multiple cease-fires – most of them momentary –and various dialogue tracks are currently underway, even as a military solutionis sought. Such contradictions have only deepened cleavages and led to moreviolence. 

Since they assumed office, the national and provincial governments have beenbogged down by the judicial crisis, the politics revolving around PervezMusharraf and a serious economic crisis. In the absence of a national policy oncombating the multiple insurgencies afflicting Pakistan, a currently cluelessprovincial government has little chance of success in its efforts to end theNWFP’s "descent into chaos".

Kanchan Lakshman is Research Fellow, Institute for Conflict Management;Assistant Editor, Faultlines: Writings on Conflict & Resolution. Courtesy,the South Asia Intelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal.