The Only Way To Win A War...

During the first Lebanon war, I visited Jounieh, a townsome 20 km north of Beirut. At the time, it served as a port for the Christianforces. It was an exciting evening.

In spite of the war raging in nearby Beirut, Jounieh was full of life. TheChristian elite spent the day in the sun-drenched marina, the women lounging inbikinis, the men slugging whisky. The three of us (myself and two young womenfrom my editorial staff - a correspondent and a photographer) were the onlyIsraelis in town, and so we were feted. Everybody invited us onto their yachts,and one rich couple insisted that we come to their home as guests of a familycelebration.

It was indeed something special. The dozens of family members belonged to thecream of the elite - rich merchants, a well-known painter, several universityprofessors. The drinks flowed like water, the conversation flowed in severallanguages.

Around midnight, everybody was slightly drunk. The men got me into a"political" conversation. They knew that I was an Israeli, but had noidea about my views.

"Why don't you go into West Beirut?" one portly gentleman asked me.West Beirut was held by Arafat's PLO forces, who were defending hundreds ofthousands of Sunni inhabitants.

"Why? What for?" I queried.

"What do you mean? To kill them! To kill everybody!"

"Everybody? Women and children, too?"

"Of course! All of them!"

For a moment, I thought that he was joking. But the faces of the men aroundhim told me that he was deadly serious and that everybody agreed with him.

At that moment I grasped that this beautiful country, rich in history,blessed with all the pleasure of life, is sick. Very, very sick.

The next day I indeed went into West Beirut, but for another purposealtogether. I crossed the lines to meet with Yasser Arafat.

(By the way, at the end of the party in Jounieh my hosts gave me a partingpresent: a big packet of hashish. On the morrow, on my way back to Israel, afterArafat had made our meeting public, I heard over the radio that four ministerswere demanding that I should be put on trial for treason. I remembered thehashish and it went sailing out of the car window.)

I am reminded of that conversation in Jounieh every time something happens inLebanon. This week, for example.

Much nonsense is being spoken and written about that country, as if it were acountry like any other. George W. Bush talks about "Lebanesedemocracy" as if there were such a thing, others speak about the"parliamentary majority" and "minority factions"' about theneed for "national unity" to uphold "national independence",as if they were talking about the Netherlands or Finland. All these have noconnection with Lebanese reality.

Geographically, Lebanon is a torn country, and there lies a part of thesecret of its beauty. Snow-covered mountain chains, green valleys, picturesquevillages, beautiful sea-shore. But Lebanon is also torn socially. The twoschisms are inter-connected: in the course of history, persecuted minoritiesfrom all over the region sought refuge between its mountains, where they coulddefend themselves.

The result: a large number of big and small communities, ready to spring toarms at any moment. At best, Lebanon is a loose federation of mutuallysuspicious communities, at worst a battlefield of feuding groups which hate eachother's guts. The annals of Lebanon are full of civil wars and horriblemassacres. Many times, this or that community called in foreign enemies toassist it against its neighbors.

Between the communities, there are no permanent alliances. One day,communities A and B get together to fight community C. The next day, B and Cfight against A. Moreover, there are sub-communities, which more than once havebeen known to make an alliance with an opposing community against their own.

Altogether, a fascinating mosaic, but also a very dangerous one - the more sosince every community keeps a private army, equipped with the best of weapons.The official Lebanese army, composed of men from all communities, is unable tocarry out any meaningful mission.

What is a Lebanese "community"? On the face of it, it's all aboutreligion. But not only religion. The community is also an ethnic tribe, withsome national attributes. A Jew will easily understand this, since the Jews arealso such a community, even if spread around the world. But for an ordinaryEuropean or American, it is difficult to understand this structure. It is easierto think about a "Lebanese nation" - a nation that exists only in theimagination or as a vision of the future.

The loyalty to the community comes before any other loyalty - and certainlybefore any loyalty to Lebanon. When the rights of a community or sub-communityare menaced, its members rise up as one in order to destroy those who arethreatening them.

The main communities are the Christian, the Sunni-Muslim, the Shiite-Muslimand the Druze (who, as far as religion goes, are a kind of extreme Shiites.) TheChristians are divided into several sub-communities, the most important of whichare the Maronites (named after a saint who lived some 1600 years ago.) TheSunnis were brought to Lebanon by the (Sunni) Ottoman rulers to strengthen theirhold, and were mainly settled in the large port cities. The Druze came to findrefuge in the mountains. The Shiites, whose importance has risen over the lastfew decades, were for many centuries a poor and down-trodden community, adoormat for all the others.

As in almost all Arab societies, the Hamula (extended family) plays a vitalrole in all communities. Loyalty to the Hamula precedes even loyalty to thecommunity, according to the ancient Arab saying: "With my cousin againstthe foreigner, with my brother against my cousin." Almost all Lebaneseleaders are chiefs of the great families.

To give some idea of the Lebanese tangle, a few recent examples: in the civilwar that broke out in 1975, Pierre Gemayel, the chief of a Maronite family,called upon the Syrians to invade Lebanon in order to help him against his Sunnineighbors, who were about to attack his territory. His grandson by the samename, who was murdered this week, was a member of a coalition whose aim is toliquidate Syrian influence in Lebanon. The Sunnis, who were fighting against theSyrians and the Christians, are now the allies of the Christians against theSyrians.

The Gemayel family was the main ally of Ariel Sharon, when he invaded Lebanonin 1982. The common aim was to drive out the (mainly Sunni) Palestinians. Forthat purpose, Gemayel's men carried out the horrendous massacre of Sabra andShatila, after the assassination of Bashir Gemayel, the uncle of the man who wasmurdered this week. The massacre was overseen by Elie Hobeika from the roof ofthe headquarters of the Israeli general Amos Yaron. Afterwards, Hobeika became aminister under Syrian auspices. Another person responsible for the slaughter wasSamir Geagea, the only one who was put on trial in a Lebanese court. He wascondemned to several life prison terms and later pardoned. This week he was oneof the main speakers at the funeral of Pierre Gemayel the grandson.

In 1982, the Shiites welcomed the invading Israeli army with flowers, riceand candy. A few months later they started a guerilla war against them, whichlasted for 18 years, in the course of which Hizbullah became a major force inLebanon.

One of the leading Maronites in the fight against the Syrians was GeneralMichel Aoun, who was elected president by the Maronites and later driven out.Now he is an ally of Hizbullah, the main supporter of Syria.

All this resembles Italy at the time of the Renaissance or Germany during the30-Years War. But in Lebanon this is the present and the foreseeable future.

In such a reality, using the term "democracy" is, of course, ajoke. By agreement, the government of the country is divided between thecommunities. The president is always a Maronite, the prime minister a Sunni, thespeaker of the parliament a Shiite. The same applies to all positions in thecountry, at all levels: a member of a community cannot aspire to a positionsuited to his talents if it "belongs" to another community. Almost allcitizens vote according to family affiliation. A Druze voter, for example, hasno chance of overthrowing Walid Jumblat, whose family has ruled the Druzecommunity for 500 years at least (and whose father was murdered by the Syrians.)He doles out all the jobs "belonging" to his community.

The Lebanese parliament is a senate of community chiefs, who divide thespoils between them. The "democratic coalition" which was put in powerby the Americans after the murder of the Sunni Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, is atemporary alliance of the Maronite, Sunni and Druze chiefs. The"opposition", which enjoys Syrian patronage, is composed of theShiites and one Maronite faction. The wheel can turn at a moment's notice, whenother alliances are formed.

Hizbullah, which appears to Israelis as an extension of Iran and Syria, isfirst of all a Shiite movement that strives to obtain for its community a largerpart of the Lebanese pie, as indeed is its due in accordance with its size.Hassan Nasrallah - who is also the scion of an important family - has his eyeson the government in Beirut, not on the mosques in Jerusalem.

What does all this say about the present situation?

For decades now, Israel has been stirring the Lebanese pot. In the past, itsupported the Gemayel family but was bitterly disappointed: the family's"Phalanges" (the name was taken from Fascist Spain, which was greatlyadmired by grandfather Pierre), were revealed in the 1982 war as a gang of thugswithout military value. But the Israeli involvement in Lebanon continues to thisday. The aim is to eliminate Hizbullah, remove the Syrians and threaten nearbyDamascus. All these tasks are hopeless.

Some history: in the 30s, when the Maronites were the leading force inLebanon, the Maronite Patriarch expressed open sympathy for the Zionistenterprise. At that time, many young people from Tel-Aviv and Haifa studied atthe American University of Beirut, and rich Jewish people from Palestine spenttheir holidays at Lebanese resorts. Once, before the founding of Israel, Icrossed the Lebanese border by mistake and a Lebanese Gendarme politely showedme the way back.

During the first years of Israel, the Lebanese border was our only peacefulone. Those days there was a saying: "Lebanon will be the second Arabcountry to make peace with Israel. It will not dare to be the first". Onlyin 1970, when King Hussein drove the PLO from Jordan into Lebanon, with theactive help of Israel, did this border heat up. Now even Fuad Siniora, the primeminister appointed by the Americans, feels compelled to declare that"Lebanon will be the last Arab state to make peace with Israel!"

All efforts to remove Syrian influence from Lebanon are bound to fail. Inorder to understand this, it is enough to look at the map. Historically, Lebanonis a part of the land of Syria ("Sham" in Arabic). The Syrians havenever resigned themselves to the fact that the French colonial regime toreLebanon from their land.

The conclusions: First, let's not get stuck in the Lebanese mess again. Asexperience has shown, we shall always come out the losers. Second, in order tohave peace on our northern border, all the potential enemies, and first of allSyria, must be involved.

Meaning: we must give back the Golan Heights.

The Bush administration forbids our government to talk with the Syrians. Theywant to talk with them themselves, when the time comes. Quite possibly, theywill then sell them the Golan in return for Syrian help in Iraq. If so, shouldwe not hurry and "sell" them the Golan (which belongs to them anyhow)for a better price for ourselves?

Lately, voices have been heard, even of senior army people, that hint at thispossibility. It should be said loudly and clearly: Because of a few thousands ofsettlers and the politicians who do not dare to confront them, we are liable tobe dragged into more superfluous wars and to endanger the population of Israel.

This is the third conclusion: There is only one way to win a war in Lebanon -and that is to avoid it.