The Fissures Within

When the elections were announced, the UPA wasexpected to win all three states, going by the results of the general electionslast year. As the election process drew to a close, the BJP, which began as theunderdog, has come close being within striking distance of returning to power inalliance with the JD-U in Jharkhand – a state in which its government wasextremely unpopular. Meanwhile, in Bihar, the BJP-JD-U alliance can certainlytake credit for reducing the RJD tothe number two slot, even if any kind of government formation in the state willtake a while with predictions of a spell of President’s Rule, with what lookslike an unmanageably fractured verdict.

In the process, the NDA which was down and out after lastyear’s general elections, has now got a shot in the arm.

Of course, the obvious loser in these elections is thehusband-wife team of union railway minister and Rashtriya Janata Dal chief LaluPrasad and chief minister Rabri Devi: Their winning streak of 15 years may nowjust be winding down to an end – at the time of writing, trends showed thatthe party may not be able to cross 80 in a house of 243 seats. However, what isremarkable is that despite 15 years in power, the apparent mood for change,voter fatigue and a virtual gang-up against the RJD – everyone from the BJP-JD-Ucombine to the Congress to the media to the Election Commission – the partyhas still won around a third of the seats in the state. It is a pointer to thehorizontal divide in the state, and the fact that though there were cracks inthe RJD vote base, most of it still holds.

As for "the man of the match’’-- as the TV analystsare describing union chemicals and fertilisers minister and Lok Jan Shakti Partyboss Ramvilas Paswan, who is likely to win around 30 seats in Bihar -- he seemsto be dressed up with nowhere to go. Widely believed to be the man who holds thekey to government formation in Bihar, he has been saying repeatedly that hewould prefer President’s Rule to either backing an RJD or a BJP-JD-Ugovernment.

The BJP-JD-U combine, delighted with its success, hasoffered Paswan the chief ministership. But thus far in all his publicinteractions with the press, he has been sticking to his guns, sayingPresident’s Rule is a preferable option. However, political sources say hisreluctance to team up with his old friends in the NDA has less to do withprinciple and more to do with compulsion: Many of the MLAs who have been electedon the LJP ticket are averse to backing a BJP-JD-U combination and might leavethe party for the RJD, if pushed to do so. What makes this a likely scenario isthe fact that the LJP is not a registered party anddefections from its ranks are possible without inviting disqualification.

As the political parties get down to government formationin Bihar and Jharkhand, Congress president Sonia Gandhi will have her work cutout.Lalu Prasad was once her most loyal supporter, a man who had taken on theBJP for attacking Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origins long before he joined the UPA. Now, he is very bitter with theCongress, particularly with SoniaGandhi’s emissaries to Bihar, Arjun Singh and ML Fotedar, who had presidedover a strange arrangement in which the Congress had tied up on 12 seats with the RJD, another 70 with the LJP and workedhard to reduce Lalu Prasad’s clout in Bihar.

With the BJP-JD-U doing its best to form a government inBihar, all Sonia Gandhi’s skills to broker peace between Lalu Prasad andPaswan will be required if a UPA government is to be formed in the state.Paswan may then demand his pound of flesh --this could include the railway ministership for him at the Centre as well as adeputy chief ministership for his brother in Bihar.

If in Jharkhand, the BJP-JD-U looks too close to a simple majority for anyone else toform a government there, a senior BJP leader from Jharkhand said that with aCongress-appointed governor the BJP-JD-U combine would need to have at least oneMLA more than not just theCongress-JMM formation but any other possible allies the latter could have –these would include the RJD and the CPI.

As for Haryana, the battle is now for the chiefministership – there are already half a dozen contenders for the top job. Ifthe old guard is represented by stateunit chief Bhajan Lal who is the top contender as he claims the support ofaround 38 of the 68 winningCongress MLAs; the younger generation’s representatives includes the36-year-old former Youth Congresschief Randeep Surjewala, the giant killer, who defeated outgoing chief ministerOm Prakash Chautala, and the 40-year-old union minister of state Selja. Andthat’s not all – there is Chaudhury Birendra Singh as well as BS Hooda,incidentally both cousins of Surjewala.

The choice of chief ministership will be based not just onsupport but also on what face the party wishes to present – if the party wantsto back a Jat – given the Jats abandoned the INLD in these elections-- it could be Surjewala. If the party wants to compensate for not makingSushil Kumar Shinde , a dalit, CM of Maharashtra , then it could be Selja. Butgiven the way the Congress goes about such things, it could be some time beforethe name of the new CM is announced.