'The First Step back From The Brink'

(Relevant excerpts from the Joint press conference with British Secretary of Statefor Defence Geoffrey Hoon in London, England)

Hoon: Good afternoon. We have spent some time today discussing howNATO can adapt and modernize its structures to meet new challenges particularly thechallenge of a future enlargement. As you would expect we have also compared notes on thetensions between India and Pakistan and we will continue to work closely together to tryand reduce those tensions. Finally, of course, we've also discussed the close cooperationbetween our forces in Afghanistan. Donald.

Rumsfeld: Thank you very much Mr. Minister. I will not repeat thetopics of discussion that Minister Hoon has just outlined, but I do want to say that it isa real pleasure for me to be here in London and to be able to meet with Prime MinisterBlair and Minister Hoon and tell them personally, how grateful we are for their superbcooperation in the global war on terrorism and the fact that we work so closely togetherin Afghanistan as well as other places around the world. We had good discussions and Iwould be happy to respond to questions with The Minister.

Q: Mr. Secretary, Jon Snow from Channel 4 News.President Putin has said that this is the most dangerous crisis, the Indo-Pak threat ofnuclear war, since the Cuban Missile Crisis, would you agree with that or would you gofurther?

Rumsfeld: There's no question that when you have two nations that havenuclear weapons and the situation is as it is between India and Pakistan today, it is adangerous situation. I think fortunately that people across the globe recognize that andthere are a great many nations, including this country, and the activity that PrimeMinister Blair has been engaged in with respect to India and Pakistan as well as PresidentPutin in Russia and certainly the United States, all recognize the seriousness of thesituation and are anxious to work with those two countries so that in fact the tensionsare some what relieved rather than made worse.

Q: Shouldn't you be going there sooner?

Rumsfeld: Well, clearly I don't think so. I would be here. There are,as I say, a great many people that are talking to the people in India and in Pakistan.President Bush has been involved, Secretary Powell's involved, Deputy Secretary Armitage,I believe, is going in today or tomorrow and be there. And I think that all of that ishelpful and useful and my guess is the timing of my visit will not be inappropriate.

Hoon: Can I just emphasize that the US administration and the UKgovernment have been coordinating their efforts to try and reduce tensions on both sides.We have a complimentary role to play in ensuring that both sides are aware of our concernsand a great deal of effort is being made at all levels in both governments to ensure thatPakistan and India are fully aware of our concern.

Q: How would you characterize your contribution to this when you doreach India and Pakistan? You've said that you are not going there to mediate; you are notgoing there with a bag of goodies, with a bag of incentives for the two sides. What is ityou hope to bring yourself?

Rumsfeld: Well, I have met on a number of occasions with the seniorofficials from both countries and my instinct is in matters like this is to talk to themrather than to talk to the press about what I will talk about to them. Maybe that's kindof a idiosyncratic behavior on my part and it seems quite rational to me. I think I willstick with it.

Q: Wyatt Andrews CBS, for both the Ministerand for you Mr. Secretary, is there anything even approaching a plan, a step by step plan,that is being forwarded, for example by Minister Straw, by Mr. Armitage, by you, by whichboth these nations are being asked or given some sort of formula on a step by step basisto back away from the brink.

Hoon: The first step is to back away from the brink. I don't thinkthat we can possibly plan out what happens there after, both sides clearly have to see aswe see real advantage in stepping back from the brink and preparing to discuss the issuesof Kashmir and the issues that divide them that there is not a formula because therecannot be a formula in what is a rapidly changing situation. What we do have are argumentsthat we can put to both sides to prevent that first step from which we are concerned therecan be very significant escalation.

Rumsfeld: I just want to add, that these are two sovereign nations,they have histories and have experience and to the extent that they are going to makejudgments about what is in their best interests. It seems to me that there are a greatmany countries in this world who recognize that conflict between those two countries isnot in their best interest and certainly not in the best interests of the world.

We have, 55 or 57 years since nuclear weapons have been fired in anger and that's animpressive accomplishment on the part of humanity I would say. I don't know of any othertime in history where there has been a significant weapon that has not been used for thatlong a period and these are not just larger weapons they are distinctively differentweapons and war being what it can be it can be unpredictable. And therefore I think thatit's important that we all recognize that they recognize and may very well be looking forways to tamp things down rather than see things escalate.

Q: Both of you gentlemen to follow up on that point about possiblytamping down, what is the assessment that you both have of the statements from Mr.Vajpayee today or in the last 24 hours about India possibly accepting joint patrolslooking for some verification along the line of control. Do you think things are nowtamping down or do you think that this is a heavily conditioned proposal that isn'tterribly realistic? For both gentlemen please.

Rumsfeld: I haven't had the chance to read it.

Hoon: I have only seen newspaper accounts of it but it's certainlyencouraging. It's a sign that the Indians are looking for if you like the first step backfrom the brink, which is certainly something we will encourage. We want to look in moredetail at precisely at what are the conditions and whether they can be sensibly satisfied.

Q: Russian Information Agency, I would liketo ask you both about their assessment on the results of Almaty meeting with PresidentPutin and the leaders of Pakistan and India. Thank you.

Rumsfeld: Myself, I think it was a useful thing that the meetings tookplace and a useful thing that President Putin met with the two leaders even those meetingsmay have been separate, I think that all of that contributes to a better understanding ofthe interest of the world community in what's taking place in South Asia.

Hoon: We very much welcome what has taken place and we want to see asmuch international pressure as possible from every quarter brought to bear on India andPakistan to recognize that they must step back from the brink.

Q: Richard Norton-Taylor of The Guardian. Can I ask SecretaryRumsfeld if he thinks that the Kashmir crisis and how dangerous it is for distracting fromdistraction from the war against terrorism, particularly in Afghanistan? And can I ask asecond questions, whether to both of you did you discuss Iraq at all this morning?

Rumsfeld: With respect to the first question, there's no question thatthe Pakistan has been enormously helpful in the war on terrorism being a neighbor ofAfghanistan and our being able to cooperate so fully with the Pakistani government. Theyhave had forces and do today along the Afghan border. We have been able to use theirairfields, it has been a significant advantage for the success that has been achieved thusfar in Afghanistan.

There's no question but that to the extent the tension on the Indian Afghan bordercontinues to go up that at some point those troops that along the Afghan border are goingto be moved. Fortunately thus far only very small elements have been moved, so it has nothad a notably harmful affect thus far to the extent that it goes on much longer it could,and that would be most unfortunate.

Hoon: As far as Iraq is concerned we've certainly had discussionsabout Iraq we both have forces patrolling the no-fly zones in Iraq, risking their lives toprotect people on the ground there. There is no doubt that the threat to those forces hasbeen increasing in recent times and we have to ensure that we can take appropriate actionto deal with that threat and certainly we both believe that Iraq will be a much betterplace, not only for the region and for its own people if Saddam Hussein was no longer inpower in Baghdad.

Q: Associated Press of Pakistan. I wouldjust like to know now that General Musharraf has accepted Mr. Putin's invitation to visitMoscow, would you like or expect Indian Leader to go to Moscow for a reduction of tension?

Hoon: I think it would be helpful if there were discussions continuingfor as long as they possibly can continue to avoid steps being taking to war and thereforewe would like to see conversations taking place wherever and whenever they can.

Q: Kim Sengupta of The Independent. In light of what you justsaid Mr. Rumsfeld about every month that goes by the situation getting potentially andintrinsically more dangerous, can we then expect possible military action to prevent thissooner rather than later?

Rumsfeld: That is a matter for the heads of governments not forministers of defense. And as the Minster has said I think that there is a very widely heldrecognition that the world would be a better place if that regime were not in power and infact it has been the policy of our country, our Congress that the regime change, thatregime change would be in the best interests of the world. There are a variety of ways forthat to be achieved and certainly it's not for me to make any announcements.

Q: National Public Radio. Sir, are youinclined at the moment Mr. Rumsfeld, are you inclined at the moment to back off of actionin Iraq right now because of what's happening in India and Pakistan and although you saythat you would prefer to deal directly with the heads of state rather than to telegraphthings to the President, I wonder more broadly if you could help us understand how youplan to impress upon India and Pakistan, what's in their own interests given the fact thatin this kind of fog people may forget what's in their own best interests? And for example,would you be bringing estimates that the Defense department has given on the kinds ofdestruction and devastation and death tolls that could take place if there were anexchange?

Rumsfeld: Well, with respect to the first part, your question says areyou backing off because of the India Pakistan situation with respect to Iraq and theanswer is to back off you have to have been some place, and I would think that that wouldnot be a correct characterization. The second thing with respect to India and Pakistan,the United States has important relationships with each of those countries we havepolitical and economic and military relationships that have been growing and developing inthe past period. They are important to us and clearly we have a stake in those twocountries not setting themselves back whatever number of years one wants to pick. Theworld has an interest in those two countries and I must say that I think that each ofthose two countries have an interest in not in allowing the situation there to escalateinto a conflict. The circumstances of the people in each country given the possibility ofa conflict would clearly be dramatically adversely affected. And, if the leaders of thosecountries are sophisticated and knowledgeable people, they know that they are aware oftheir circumstance and I think they are aware of the circumstance that they would be in inthe event that things deteriorated.