The Familiar Family Way

There was this popular theory that the DMK-BJP alliance, ideologically speaking, was not a"natural" one and that the AIADMK and the BJP were actually made for each other. Today, the BJP isback with its "natural Hindutva ally", and looks like the DMK too has found its "naturaldynastic ally" in the Congress.

The stranglehold of the extended family of party president M.Karunanidhi over the DMK is complete afterMurasoli Maran’s son Dayanidhi Maran nomination for the Central Chennai Lok Sabha seat. In both the parties,the parivar has the natural right to succession. In the DMK this happens from the district secretary level. Ifthe Congress bears the family burden with the late Moopanar’s son G.K. Vasan at the helm, the DMK wears theburden more forthrightly. Karunanidhi’s son M.K. Stalin has been groomed to inherit the mantle in the state,and now Dayanidhi Maran inherits at the central level. Dayanidhi till recently headed the Sun TV Network’scable service provider in Chennai, Sumangali Cable Vision.

The DMK might have sewed up a grand alliance of all opposition parties—Congress, PMK, MDMK, Left partiesand the IUML—but results do not simply hinge on arithmetic and vote-share data of previous elections. TheAIADMK might have a lot going against it—especially anti-incumbency; the resentment felt by governmentemployees whose strike Jayalalitha dealt with, with an iron hand; farmers in southern districts who have hadno relief from drought with more rhetoric than water flowing on the Cauvery issue—and yet, the DMK, it isfelt, has not driven the kind of hard bargain with allies that Jayalalitha managed ahead of the May 2001Assembly polls.

The DMK is contesting an all-time low number of seats at 15 of the 40 (including one in Pondicherry),against the AIADMK’s 33. Of this, the DMK is fighting merely three of the 12 parliamentary constituencies inthe 10 southern districts where the Mukkulathor community (including Thevars) accounts for a sizeable vote. Insouthern TN— Karunanidhi’s elder son Azhagiri’s territory—the DMK’s presence over the years has seena steady decline.

In 1999, the party contested 19 seats and won 12. Of these it fielded six in the south, but won only three.In the 2001 Assembly poll, its southern harvest further dwindled. Contesting 45 of the 70 southern seats, itwon a paltry three. Given such a history, the DMK clearly realised that it did not stand to gain much byfielding heavily in the south and gave away most seats there to the Congress and MDMK. Unwittingly, the DMKhas acknowledged that its political space has been shrinking.

Even if the DMK-led Democratic Progressive Alliance does well and manages up to 25 seats, the DMK shouldconsider itself lucky if it enters the double-digit mark. There has been considerable resentment within theparty over the manner in which Karunanidhi has picked candidates.

Following the party’s Virudhanagar conference, the DMK high command ordered aspirant to deposit theamount meant for electioneering in advance with the party headquarters, failing which their names would not beconsidered. 308 aspirants applied for the 15 seats. Some district leaders felt that the DMK was basicallyauctioning seats to the highest bidder.

One such bid probably came from Tiruchendur’s V. Radhika Selvi, the pregnant wife of the ‘Pannayar’Venkatesan, a mafia leader in Tuticorin district shot dead in September 2003 by the police. "Radhika maynot deliver in the electoral battle, but she will deliver a child in another week. She may not even be able tocampaign," says an amused DMK leader. Venkatesan was an accused in eight murder cases. His encounterdeath had angered the Nadar community, and the DMK hopes to influence the Nadar vote by fieldingVenkatesan’s wife. In the process, it has denied the ticket to Aladi Aruna, a former law minister. Spited,Aruna is likely to join the BJP.

The AIADMK has equally pandered to caste considerations. It has fielded seven Vanniars to counter theVanniar-dependent PMK and eight Thevars. Jayalalitha has introduced 29 new faces and has jettisoned ninesitting MPs. To the BJP, the AIADMK has given very little, with Jayalalitha virtually dictating who shouldcontest and who should not. Denied tickets, former BJP union minister S.Thirunavukkarasar and state BJPheavyweight L.Ganesan have been openly resentful. Of the seven seats it is contesting, the BJP stands a chancein two—Nagercoil and Coimbatore—and is likely to lower its state tally from the current four to two. Ifthe elections are free and fair, the BJP-AIADMK combine could win 12 seats.

Interestingly, a DMK-BJP face-off in on only in one constituency (North Chennai). With Karunanidhideclaring that the BJP-AIADMK alliance is basically an Advani-Jaya alliance, it appears that realignment with"Vajpayee’s BJP" is possible in a post-poll scenario. In case the BJP/NDA does return to power andfinds that Jayalalitha is causing too much trouble, the DMK, and more so the PMK, will reserve the right tocrossover.

Whatever TN’s contribution to the next parliament, this election is likely to deliver one significantmessage—the state which has always seen single-party rule is headed for a coalition government in 2006. TheAIADMK—having alienated every ally of the 2001 poll—is likely to realise after May 2004 that withoutformidable allies it does not stand to gain much; and the DMK, having already conceded that it is no longer apan-TN force, will be reconciled to coalition politics.

The two Dalit parties—Pudhiya Tamizhagam and Dalit Panthers—treated as untouchables by the rest, willhave to wait till 2006 to prove their importance