The overwhelming majority in the province comprises Taliban sympathizers, including many inthe local administration. The province is surrounded by the most difficult mountainous terrain and there is anetwork of Taliban safe havens as well as a widespread support base among local tribes. The support of thelocal tribesmen was critical in eventually ensuring that the 48 Taliban cadres were set free by the Afghanadministration.
Strategically speaking, the Zabul province is the birthplace of the Taliban. It was the first province to beoccupied by the student militia when they emerged against the warlordism of different Jehadi factions in theearly 1990s. Even after the US toppled the Taliban Government, this is the place that has been occupied by theTaliban several times over the past weeks.
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Before any attack, the Taliban leaders send warning messages to the administration not toresist, and this is taken seriously, with most administration officials fleeing before the Taliban arrive, andothers offering little resistance. The Taliban then take over the offices for a few hours, hoist their whiteflag and then leave notes on the wall, declaring that they can take over Afghanistan 'any time'.
In most of the South Eastern Afghan belt, the Taliban resistance enjoys widespread support, since many of theTaliban leaders come from South Eastern areas of Zabul, Hilmand, Kandahar and Oruzgan provinces. According totribal traditions, moreover, their safety is guaranteed by their tribes. If they seek refuge after a guerillaoperation, they are given shelter; and if US troops come after them and conduct house-to-house searchoperation, they are easily transported over the mountainous terrain into neighboring Pakistan, where they hideuntil the danger is over.
At this point in time, the resistance against the US presence in Afghanistan and against the rule of NorthernAlliance is in search of Kabul's vulnerable underbelly and soft targets. Besides western targets, includingaid workers currently operating in the country, Indian interests are widely believed to be easy targets thatcan force concessions from the Afghan Government. Indeed, a strategy to target Indian interests in general hasbeen widely developed among the resistance forces, for a number of specific reasons.
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Most significantly, the Pakistani propaganda machinery has very effectively spread theinformation that 'all Indian outfits', whether NGOs or commercial organizations, are part and parcel of theIndian 'strategic community' which aims to help strengthen the Northern Alliance rule in Afghanistan. Most ofthe Northern Alliance leadership has very special and personal relations with New Delhi. Dr. AbdullahAbdullah, General Fahim, and several other ministers and leaders have had long periods of residence in Delhi.So if Indians are targeted it is natural that the Northern Alliance leadership would take this seriously andwould try its level best to rescue them.
Strikes on Indian targets could also force Indian investors to pack their bags and go back home. This wouldcreate a serious mess in current development projects and efforts, and could ultimately make the situationmore and more chaotic. Such chaos and anarchy helps the Taliban carry the resistance forward. The inevitableconclusion is that Indian interests in Afghanistan are the soft underbelly that the Taliban seeks out and, ifthese interests are systematically targeted, the results most desired by them may be achieved.
Syed Saleem Shahzad is Correspondent, Asia Times. Courtesy, the South AsiaIntelligence Review of the South Asia Terrorism Portal
