SNAFU Station

Sri Lanka is being hit by another, metaphorical, tsunami as the two main actorsin the larger ethnic war see different scenarios of another devastating wave ofterror.

For Velupillai Prabhakaran, leader of the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE),what visited Sri Lanka on December 26 was the second tsunami - the first hadalready wreaked devastation on the Tamil people in Sri Lanka's Northern andEastern provinces in the form of Sri Lanka's military.

On the other hand, when President Kumaratunga was shown photographs, during aNational Security Council meeting last week, of at least two light aircraft inthe LTTE's possession she is reported to have exclaimed that she was being hitby a second tsunami. The Army's Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs), which hoveredover the North and East during a supposed mission to photograph the devastationcaused by the tsunami, had stumbled on the presence of an aircraft on anairstrip in Mullaitivu. A second UAV mission undertaken in the night collectedphotographic evidence of another LTTE aircraft.

But for most ordinary people, the first tsunami not only brought in death anddevastation, but also created conditions apparently ideal for national unity.The prompt aid by civil society organisations to the tsunami-affected people -even while the government appeared to be in complete disarray - was seen as aprecursor, not only to rebuilding Sri Lanka but also to achieving an elusivenational unity. Everyone was helping the affected people without differences ofrace, ethnicity, caste or class. For a moment it seemed that even the divisivepolitics, which has long been the bane of this country, had been swept away bythe great waves. 

Many believed that a real peace was now possible, since thetsunami had weakened the LTTE's ability to resume the war, and an apparentlyover-confident President Kumaratunga declared that she could say for certainthat there would not be another war. The opposition United National Party (UNP)also joined the government in extending support for the relief andrehabilitation effort, and became an active member of the all-party committeeformed by President Kumaratunga to deal with the situation. 

The LTTE alsoindicated, initially, that it was ready to cooperate with the government onrelief and rehabilitation, and the LTTE leader, Prabhakaran, sent a message ofcondolence to the people of the South, even as the government-LTTE 'peacesecretariats' sought to streamline aid flows to the North-East. Politics seemedto be a dirty word for the first time since universal adult franchise had beenintroduced in Sri Lanka in 1931.

Unfortunately, all the positive signs are now disappearing, as Sri Lanka revertsto its fractious politics. Both the government and the LTTE seem to be incliningto their respective hardline positions, while, in the South, political leadersare trying to exploit the misery of a million affected people to secure mileagein this year of Presidential elections. As one opposition front-liner expressedit, they are 'all playing politics over dead bodies.'

Amidst growing indications of mistrust between the two parties in conflict, thevisit of a high-powered Norwegian delegation has appeared as a beacon of hope.However, the seasoned facilitators who met President Kumaratunga on January 21,and Prabhakaran on January 22, achieved little in terms of the peace process perse. They are, nevertheless, trying to bring the two sides together onpost-tsunami relief and rehabilitation matters.

But old habits die hard. Both the government and the LTTE are once again tryingto secure concessions by holding firm to their respective hardline positions.One of the main irritants was the government's refusal to allow UN SecretaryGeneral Kofi Annan to visit Tiger areas devastated by the tsunami. The governmentcited security as the reason behind its decision, but the LTTE arguedthat other dignitaries, such as the European Union's External AffairsCommissioner, Chris Patten, and Japan's special peace envoy, Yasushi Akashi, hadbeen given access; it also pointed to the fact that several UN agencies wereworking in the LTTE areas.

Another irritant has been the centralisation of the relief and rehabilitationeffort. LTTE Peace Secretariat Chief, S. Pulithevan, and government PeaceSecretariat Secretary-General Jayantha Dhanapala, had several rounds of talks atthe Norwegian Ambassador's Colombo residence, to work out a formula for theNorth-East, which was the worst affected in the tsunami, to get its just shareof aid.

The LTTE alleged that the government discriminates against the North-East areasin distributing relief aid, and proposed the formation of an apex body -including its own representatives - to supervise the aid flow and rehabilitationprojects on a national level. But the Tigers were told that they shouldconcentrate only on the North-East, though, in the immediate aftermath of thecatastrophe, President Kumaratunga had invited the LTTE to join its all-partycommittee. 

The committee, however, was seen by the Tigers as a mere 'talkingshop'. Again, after days of negotiation, the LTTE came up with a formulaaccording to which relief and rehabilitation in the North East would be handledby an 11-member apex body (six Tamils, three Muslims and two Sinhalese). But theLTTE proposal was again shot down by the President who was unwilling to relaxher hold on the multi-billion dollar aid flow.

A third irritant was the declaration of a state of emergency by the President,ostensibly to deal with the post-tsunami law and order situation. But theTigers, as well as civic rights groups, see the new emergency regulations assweeping measures that erode civil liberties and tend towards a presidentialdictatorship. These emergency provisions have also enabled the President toappoint military officers as coordinators in the relief and rehabilitation work.The Tigers were incensed with the imposition of the state of emergency not onlybecause it included Tiger areas, but also because it strengthened the role ofthe military in Tamil areas. The presence of government forces in refugee campsadded to the tension.

A further irritant was a defence deal the government has entered into with Iranin the aftermath of the tsunami catastrophe. The LTTE has charged that thedefence purchases from Iran, through a 150 million dollar credit line offered toSri Lanka by the Islamic Republic, have tilted the military balance in violationof the February 2001 Ceasefire Agreement.

On January 22, the LTTE voiced its concern over the possibility of tsunamirelief aid being diverted to defence purchases. Worried about the impact of suchallegations on the flow of aid, the government denied the LTTE charges onSunday, January 23. These apprehensions, however, appear to be mutual. The governmentalso fears that channelling aid to the LTTE and its frontorganisations would only help the rebels build up their fighting force, which,according to military intelligence estimates, lost as many as 2,000 cadres inthe December 26 tsunami.

Adding to these irritants is the presence of more than a thousand US marines inSri Lanka. The Tigers certainly have some apprehension about their role, andanalysts believe that their continued presence may complicate matters vis-à-visthe ethnic conflict in the country.

It is unlikely that these irritants will be removed even after the entirecoastal belt of Sri Lanka is cleared of the tsunami debris. PresidentKumaratunga appears to be indulging in a measure of one-upmanship since she isin a much stronger position than she was before the tsunami. Indeed, for weekseven before the natural catastrophe, she had begun consolidating her power bywooing opposition Members of Parliament to the government side, offering themministerial posts and perks, while the Supreme Court incarcerated her bitterpolitical opponents on a contempt charge. The only missing link in her powerscheme was the foreign aid required to rebuild the economy, which was headingfor a crash. The tsunami came as a blessing in disguise. Sri Lanka's economy isnow upbeat, with billions in foreign aid being promised and Western nationsoffering sweeping trade concessions on sympathetic grounds.

Armed with these advantages, a churlish President publicly said that there wouldbe no elections in the country for the next five years, and her stance suggeststhat she would not mind if the peace process is pushed to the backburner. Shehad, of course, discussed, among other matters, issues relating to the peaceprocess during her meeting with the visiting Norwegian Foreign Minister, JanPeterson, on January 21, and spoke of a constitutional package which couldaddress some concerns of the LTTE. 

Earlier in the week, however, a visibly upsetLTTE Political Wing leader, S.P. Thamilselvan, told European envoys that the government's mishandling of the relief and rehabilitation efforts only bolsteredthe LTTE's case for an Interim Self Governing Authority (ISGA). The President,however, is in no mood to discuss the ISGA, claiming that her government'spriority is to rebuild the devastated country.

However, LTTE Chief Negotiator, Anton Balasingham, who was airlifted to theTiger-territory by a government helicopter after he arrived in Colombo fromLondon, made it abundantly clear in a media conference that the tsunami had notswept away the deadlock on the peace process and that no new stand by the governmenthad been conveyed to the Norwegian team. "The tsunami has notswept away the aspirations of the Tamil people in their freedom fight," hedeclared, accusing the government of attempting to portray the disaster as anend to the struggle of the Tamil people. "Until such time that the Tamilpeople realize their goal, we will continue with our freedom struggle."

At this point in time, however, the LTTE is not pushing hard on the ISGA either,since it is also eyeing the substantial foreign aid. It has negotiated, withsome success, the channeling of aid from foreign NGOs and envoys, to the LTTE'sTamil Rehabilitation Organisation, a government-recognized NGO, arguing that thegovernment is largely concentrating on the development of the southern areaswhile throwing only a few crumbs to the North-East.

On the southern political front, the Presidential remarks that there would notbe any elections for the next five years have galvanized the main opposition UNPinto action. The UNP has called on the President to clarify her position andwarned that it would withdraw support to the government in relief andrehabilitation work if this was, indeed, the case.

Evidently, Sri Lanka is gradually coming back to 'normal': the dirty politicswhich puts self before the country is returning, and 'aid politics' is simplyadding more venom to the warped interface between the major players in thistroubled island nation.

Ameen Izzadeen isDeputy Editor, Sunday Times and Daily Mirror, Colombo. Courtesy, the South Asia IntelligenceReview of the South Asia Terrorism Portal