Sharp Protests Against The Ceasefire

Assam and Manipur have strongly opposed the Centre's decision to extend theterritorial limits of the ceasefire with the National Socialist Council ofNagalim (NSCN) beyond Nagaland. In Arunachal Pradesh, the third state thatis likely to be the most affected because of the Centre's decision, ChiefMinister Mukut Mithi has said he has no problem as long as the"militantsfollow the ground rules."

The Assam Government reacted sharply to the Centre's decision and said thiswould escalate the insurgent activities within the State.

A terse statement issued late on Thursday said: "The Government of Assamstrongly opposes the decision of the Government of India regarding theextension of ceasefire with the NSCN(I-M) without territorial limits,without taking into consideration the views of the Government of Assam. Thisunilateral decision of the Government of India may result in escalation ofinsurgent activities within the State of Assam."

Assam Chief minister Tarun Gogoi, who is going to be in New Delhi over theweekend is likely to make his government's displeasure known to the Centrethrough theUnion Home ministry.

Gogoi is likely to point out to the CentreWednesday's ambush of an Assam Rifles convoy by suspected militants of theNSCN(IM) in which nine jawans were killed as the proof of the outfit'sfuture plans.

"The centre without consulting with anybody has extended the ceasefire to areas outsideNagaland and we oppose it,'' Gogoi said in Guwahati today.

The chief minister said the government supported any peace process but it did not support such a move which "maycreate law and order problems for the state".

He cited the example of Thursday's ambush by the NSCN militants inside Assam where nineAssam Rifles jawans were killed.

The centre would now be "responsible" for any law and order problem created by the extension of the ceasefire to thestate, he warned.

"The NSCN(IM) will now have a free run of the neighbouringareas which is not good from a security point of view," a senior Armyofficial told OUTLOOKINDIA.COM in Guwahati.

Political parties including the BJP in Assam have been staunchly opposed tothe NSCN(I-M)'s demand for extension of the ceasefire territory toNaga-inhabited areas of Assam since the outfit has often unleashed a majorviolence in the past in these areas. Besides, the outfit considers theNaga-inhabited areas as part of their so-called "greater Nagalim"State.

Even the underground outfits of Assam, the ULFA and the NDFB are opposed tothe NSCN(I-M)'s claim over Assam territory.

The previous AGP-led Government of Assam had repeatedly urged the Centre notto succumb to NSCN(I-M)'s pressure to extend the area of the ceasefire toAssam. The new Congress Government had also been opposing the idea.

Although Arunachal Pradesh Chief minister Mukut Mithi has said that "aslongas the NSCN abides by the ground rules, I have no problem," analysts feelthat the state will have face the biggest problem from the militants. LastWednesday's ambush of the Assam Rifles convoy took place on theAssam-Arunachal Pradesh border. Two districts in the state, Changlang andMio are used by the militants to travel to upper Burma and back very often,security analysts point out.

In Manipur, several public and political organizations came out withstatements opposing it. The one-day political conference of the Manipur unitof the Samata Party, held on Thursday and attended by George Fernandes, JayaJaitly and Shambhu Srivastav, passed a resolution saying that the party willoppose the government move to extend the ceasefire to the Naga-dominatedareas in Manipur.

The All Manipur United Clubs Organization (AMUCO) has also sent a letter tothe Prime Minister urging him not to dismember Manipur. Manipur has been thehome of various communities and ethnic tribes for generations.

Radhabinod Koijam, the former Chief Minister whose government was defeated onMay 21, has been saying that as a part of the hidden agenda of the BJP hewas ousted so that the ceasefire could be extended to Manipur during thePresident's rule.

While the rest of the political fall-out between BJP and Samata on one handand other regional parties is a matter of concern for Vajpayee-governement, theexperts are already worried about the next round of talks with the NSCN(I-M)scheduled for the first week of August.

The governement would have to do a serious tight-rope walking to buildopinion in favour of the extension of the ceasefire with the NSCN(I-M) on onehand and keep a strict vigil on the security scenario in the other neighbouringstates, on the other, in order to push forward the peace process.