Questions And Answers

How can one analyse the evolution of Afghanistan since the Soviet invasionand the victory of the Taliban? 

The PDPA ( -- the Peoples Democratic Party of Afghanistan-- Afghan Communist Party) which had a strong base in the army and air forcecarried out a coup d'etat in 1978, toppling the corrupt regime of Daoud. Thepeople welcomed the change. The PDPA was initially popular. It pledged importantsocial reforms and democracy. But the latter promise was never upheld eventhough important educational reforms were pushed through such as free educationand schools for girls. In the cities girls and boys began to attend the sameschools. Medical care was improved as well, but a bitter factional struggle ledto the victory of a Pol-Pot faction led by Hafizullah Amin who embarked on acampaign massive repression.

Meanwhile the United States decided to destabilise theregime by arming the ultra-religious tribes and using the Pakistan Army as aconduit to help the religious extremists. The Americans were laying a bear-trapand the Soviet leadership fell into it. They sent the Red Army to topple Aminand sustain the PDPA regime by force. This further exacerbated the crisis andthe United States gave the call for a jihad against communism.

The Pakistani military thought it would help the jihad if aSaudi prince came to lead the struggle, but volunteers from that quarter werenot forthcoming. Instead the Saudi regime suggested Ossama Bin Laden to the CIA.He was approved, recruited, trained and sent to Afghanistan where he foughtwell. In one action Bin Laden led his men to attack a mixed school (boys andgirls) and kill all the teachers. The US watched this approvingly. The rest ishistory.

The Soviet Union was defeated and withdrew its forces in1989. A civil war followed and a coalition government consisting of forces loyalto Iran, Tadjikistan and Pakistan came to power. Instability reigned. ThenPakistan hurled the Taliban (students) it had trained in special seminaries intothe battle with open support from the Pakistan Army. Kabul was captured andgradually the regime extended its rule to the rest of the country. Americanthink-tanks till a few months ago were talking of using the Taliban to furtherdestabilize the Central Asian Republics! Now the US and Pakistan are waging warto topple a regime they created. Who said that history had ceased to beironical?

What is specific about the Islamism of the Taliban?

It is a virulent, sectarian, ultra-puritanical strainheavily influenced by Wahhabism---the official state religion of Saudi Arabia.It was Saudi religious instructors who trained the Taliban. They believe in apermanent jihad against infidels and other Muslims (especially the Shias). BinLaden, too, is a staunch Wahhabi. They would like a return to what they imaginewas Islam in the 7th century, during the leadership of Mohammed. What they don'tunderstand is that Mohammed was a very flexible prophet-politician as MaximeRodinson explains in his excellent biography.

What was the strategic aim of the United States inbasing themselves on the most hard-line wing of the Islamic resistance to theUSSR, and more generally groups such as that of Bin Laden in the Arab-Muslimworld?

Throughout the Cold War the United States used Islam as abulwark against communism and revolution. This occurred everywhere in theIslamic world, not just in South Asia. So we can say that the Islamism wewitness is a product of imperialism and modernity.

The key to what will happen in the region is Pakistan.What sort of regime is it, what are its goals and what are the contradictions itfaces?

It is a military regime, but not a vicious one like itspredecessor. It is a regime which wants to supervise neo-liberalism in Pakistan.The Army, of course, is divided, but the exact strength of pro-Taliban currentsinside the Army is a matter of dispute. It could be anything between 15--30percent. The Islamists are very weak in Pakistani society as a whole. Itsimportant to understand this fact. In successive elections, less people havevoted for zealotry in Pakistan than in Israel. That's why the Pakistan Talibandecided to make 'entryism' inside the Army. If the United States spills too muchblood in Afghanistan then the consequences could be dire within the PakistanArmy in a year's time.

For the moment President Musharraf seems to want to lineup alongside the US. Is it possible that Pakistan would be a logistical supportto an American intervention against Aghanistan?

Pakistan has agreed to give logistical support. In fact thePakistan Army is necessary for the whole operation. The United States planes andtroops will be stationed in the Gwadur base in Baluchistan which they builtduring the Cold War. Don't forget that Pakistan was a cold war ally of theUnited States from 1954-1992. Both sides know each other well. The Pakistanielite is delighted that the country's debt (36 billion dollars) has beencancelled and more money has been pledged. In return for this they are preparedto see the Taliban defeated and disarmed. Trouble will begin if too many beardedmen are killed.

In my opinion one reason for the delay in action is thatthe Pakistan Army is trying to make sure that the Taliban do not resist theUnited States. The advice being given to the faithful is: shave your beards andkeep your powder dry. The West will go away and then we'll see. Islamabaddetests the Northern Alliance which it defeated via the Taliban when it tookKabul. I cannot stress enough that the Taliban is sustained on every level byPakistan. What is switched on can also be switched off. The problem for Pakistanis that a wing of the Taliban defected to Bin Laden and his praetorian guard ofArab anarcho-Islamists. These guys will probably fight back whatever the odds.

If the conflict becomes regional what effects would thishave on the situation in the region and the attitude of countries like India,China and Russia?

All three countries are delighted by the 'war againstterrorism'. They are all Americans now! India wants to crush the oppositionKashmir. The Turkish military wants to a final solution to the 'Kurdishproblem'. Putin has already destroyed Chechynia. China has the green light to dowhat it wants. So it suits them all, but a great deal depends on how thisadventure ends. Are we witnessing yet another boost in and acceptance of USworld hegemony or is the Empire about to triumph itself to death?

(By arrangement with Zmag)