Pyrrhic Victory

Municipal elections held on February 8, 2006, in the shadow of Maoist attacksand a boycott by political parties, painted a dismal picture of the Royalregime, even as it further shrunk King Gyanendra’s options. The third suchlocal election (the first and second local elections were conducted in 1992 and1997) saw an average voter turn out of under 20 per cent.  According to theElection Commission (EC), nationwide, out of 1,443,310 voters, only 284,225 casttheir votes. The capital city of Kathmandu – the King’s ‘stronghold’ –witnessed a mere 14 percent voter turnout, while the surrounding municipalities,the Lalitpur sub-metropolitan city, Madhyapur Thimi Municipality and KirtipurMunicipality registered 18, 13 and 33 per cent voting, respectively. The voterturnout was the highest, at 71 per cent, in the Gaur Municipality of RautahatDistrict, and lowest at Lekhnath Municipality of Kaski district, at just one percent. The previous two elections had witnessed a creditable 60 per cent turnout.

The run-up to the elections was far from smooth, with the Maoists calling fora bandh from February 5 to 11, "to actively disrupt the municipal polls".The seven main political parties had already announced a boycott of the polls onJanuary 17.

Doubts on the efficacy of the exercise had emerged even before the pollingdate, when the EC announced on January 29 that, out of the 58 municipalitiesscheduled to go for polls, there would be no elections in 22, as the candidatesin these Municipalities had ‘won’ unopposed. For the total of 4,146 seats inthe 58 municipalities, only 3,654 persons had filed their nominations.

In the Kathmandu Valley alone, 50 candidates, including two mayoral and sixdeputy mayoral candidates, withdrew their nominations. Officials were electedunopposed in Ilam, Damak, Bhimeshwar, Bhaktapur, Banepa, Panauti, Dhulikhel,Ratnanagar, Prithvi Narayan, Byas, Waling, Tansen, Ramgram, Butwal, Kapilvastu,Baglung, Birendra Nagar, Nepalgunj, Gulariya, Dipayal, Dasharathchand andAmargadhi municipalities. Women participation in the elections was also verypoor with only 310 nominations filed for the 806 posts reserved for women acrossthe country. Out of the 72 parties registered at the Election Commission, only22 participated in the elections.

Even as Maoist leaders claimed that their bandh was a ‘historic success’and had completely ‘sabotaged’ the Municipal elections, the regime claimed a‘victory’. Home minister Kamal Thapa, understandably thrilled that hisfaction of the Rashtriya Prajatantra Party had grabbed a majority of the Mayoralseats, declared, "despite the Maoists and the Alliance call for active boycottof polls, the people have cast their votes with an enthusiastic zeal."

Such zeal was little in evidence, even though the regime used all its forceto create it. February 8 was declared a holiday nationwide; traffic was bannedin Kathmandu, Lalitpur and Bhaktapur on polling day for fear of attacks by theMaoists; all mobile telephone services were discontinued from the evening ofFebruary 7 till further notice, including the wireless phone services withlimited mobility provided by Indian joint venture United Telecom Ltd.; allGovernment employees were ordered to cast their vote.

In contrast to the persistent silliness of the regime, the Maoists havedemonstrated considerable tact, guile and ingenuity in securing the upper hand.In an interview to an Indian daily, Maoist ‘Chairman’ Pushpa Kamal Dahal akaPrachanda conceded that his group had agreed to engage in "multi-partydemocracy" in an "anti-feudal, anti-imperialist constitutional framework",and even offered talks with the king, though with conditions attached. At thesame time, there has been a continuous military and strategic consolidation inthe areas of Maoist dominance, as also a systematic escalation of activitiesacross the country after the withdrawal of the unilateral Maoist cease fireafter January 2, 2006.

With the countryside firmly in their grip, the Maoists have now increasedattacks in the cities and urban centres across the country, giving reality tothe Maoist slogan: "Dhand ma tekera touku ma hanne" – "Climb onthe spine to strike at the head"; the ‘spine’, in this metaphor, is Nepal’shighways and supply routes; the head, Kathmandu and other city centres. To addteeth to their urban operations, the Maoists have restructured their commandsetup, as an International Crisis Group report notes:

"The Maoists (have) also restructured their military and operational methods. Alongside the Eastern and Western Commands, they have established a Special Central Command. Formation of the latter, which covers Kathmandu and the surrounding area and consists of four regional bureaus, reflects the increased priority they are giving to the base of central state power."

The strategy saw an operational demonstration on January 14, 2006, whenMaoists drove into a Police post in the Thankot area in the capital and shotdead 11 police personnel. On the same day, they attacked another Police post inBhaktapur in the Kathmandu Valley, injuring seven personnel and looting 26rifles. Interestingly, the attacks came even though the Police, in an internalreport, had warned of Maoist attacks in and around the capital.

Violence across the country in the first month of 2006 had already claimed172 fatalities (8 civilians, 56 security forces, 108 Maoists). Urban centressuch as Nepalgunj, Biratnagar and Pokhara have been subjected to unrelentingMaoist pressure in the form of bomb blasts and attacks. January alone, accordingto the Institute for Conflict Management’s data, recorded at least 17 bombblasts of varying intensities in these three cities. Among these, Nepalgunj hasbeen particularly targeted, and witnessed three major attacks among a rash oflesser incidents:

January 5: Three police personnel were killed and two injured in aMaoist attack on an Armed Police Force (APF) security checkpost at Ranjha chowkin Nepalgunj

January 20: Six police personnel were killed and four others injuredwhen Maoists launched simultaneous attacks on the BP Chowk security check post,Jamunaha Police Post and the Customs Office in Nepalgunj.

January 24: Two security personnel, one Maoist and a civilian werekilled when Maoists launched simultaneous attacks on the district police office,the regional police training centre, Nepal Rastra Bank, the Municipal Policeoffice, the Royal Nepalese Army’s No. 4 Company, the District Prison, theZonal Police Office and the District Administration office in Nepalgunj.

These developments sit ill with King Gyanendra’s claims, on the completionof one year of ‘direct rule’ on February 1, 2006, of "Arresting asituation that was slipping into anarchy and reactivating a stalled democraticprocess", and that "the Nepalese people have experienced the nation grow inconfidence and the self-respect of the Nepalese people (has been) restoredwithin a short span of one year, with the cloud of pessimism dissipating."

The King apparently presumes that Nepal continues to live in an earlier age;to the extent that its people seek to oppose his anachronistic regime, he hassought to prop up his delusions through repression and increasing isolation.Reporters Without Borders has recorded at least 273 cases of arrests ofjournalists and 569 cases of censorship in 2005 in Nepal, accounting for half ofthe total cases of censorship reported worldwide. In November 2005, theGovernment also issued a ‘Code of Conduct for Social Organizations’,prohibiting any activity ‘endangering social harmony’, and barring the staffof non-governmental organizations (NGO) from all political affiliations, thusexcluding politically active persons from NGO work.

The King’s attempts at "arresting the situation" have, moreover, hadlittle apparent impact on the nation’s economy. Even as the Asian DevelopmentBank (ADB) points out that annual economic growth has dropped from a healthyannual average of 4.9 per cent in the 1990s, to an average of 1.9 per centbetween 2002 and 2004, figures for the last six months reflect a wideningmismatch between expenditure and revenue. Revenue collection has grown by anominal 5.8 per cent (with inflation at 8.5 per cent) while total expenditurehas soared by 15.6 percent. The ‘royal coup’ brought about a sharp dip inforeign aid mobilization (both loans and grants) and, according to Ministry ofFinance sources, the foreign aid flow fell to Rs. 14.28 billion in 2005, asagainst Rs 23 billion in 2004.

The King had sought to cement his power through the Municipal elections.Instead, they have left his regime even more fragile. Despite his glowingrhetoric about how "all popularly elected bodies will be active in ensuring abright future for the Nepalese people through a dedicated exercise in democracyso as to create a welfare society", the harsh reality is that any resolutionof the conflict in Nepal will now substantially be dictated and engineered bythe Maoists.

Saji Cherian is Research Associate, Institute for Conflict Management.