Prospects For Peace In South Asia

(As prepared -- Christina Rocca Assistant Secretary of State for South Asian Affairs; StrobeTalbott and Nayan Chanda)

Delivered on September 5, 2002)

Introduction, conflict in the region

I’m pleased to be here today to discuss the prospects for peace in South Asia. This subject is central tothe goals of the United States, and to the interests of the international community in the region. I know thata principal concern of this gathering today is the continuing crisis between India and Pakistan, and I willreview current Administration thinking on this issue.

But it is also important to keep in mind that there are other, quite serious, conflicts in South Asia. Ithink that these also need to be included in any discussion of stability and the prospects for peace in theregion. I know that the situation in Afghanistan was taken up at a separate session this morning, so I do notintend to address it except to the extent it influences other developments in South Asia. But I would like totalk about Sri Lanka, where there are some indication that an almost 20-year conflict may be on the way toresolution, and about Nepal, where a rural insurgency has grown over the past five years to threaten thefuture of a country struggling to establish prosperity and democracy.

India-Pakistan

Throughout South Asia, the search for prosperity and democracy is too often overshadowed by the specter ofwar. The most prominent case in the region, of course, is the continuing crisis between India and Pakistan.Twice so far this year, the possibility of war between India and Pakistan became very real. Hundreds ofthousands of Indian and Pakistani troops were mobilized along their border and the Line of Control in Kashmir.These crises were generated by extremely provocative terrorist attacks, first against the Indian parliament inNew Delhi last December, and then against families of Indian soldiers in Jammu in May. The forces of extremismonce again sought to exploit the deep and long-standing differences between India and Pakistan over Kashmir.

They did not succeed, and tensions have been reduced since then thanks to decisions made in Islamabad andNew Delhi, with the encouragement of the international community. But we, and the rest of the internationalcommunity remain deeply concerned. The military mobilization continues. The rhetoric, though muted, couldbubble up again. Another major terrorist attack or a significant surge in violence could still spark amilitary confrontation, with long-lasting and devastating consequences for the entire region. The enemies ofmoderation in the region are aware of this fact and have already tried to exploit it through high-profileterrorist attacks. They could very well try again.

We need to recognize that an important factor in the current crisis is the willingness of extremists andterrorists to go to any length to reach their goals. Our efforts to prevent conflict between India andPakistan are made even more urgent by the global war on terrorism. President Musharraf, recognizing the dangerthat extremism poses to his country, has denounced the senseless ideology of violence. Pakistani authoritieshave moved against extremist groups. The extremists, showing how threatened they feel by PresidentMusharraf’s actions, have struck back. The government has not been intimidated; instead it has continued itscampaign against terrorists and their supporters. We are standing by Pakistan as it faces this brutalchallenge.

Secretary Powell has said that war is just not an option in resolving the differences between India andPakistan – it will only make the situation worse, probably much worse. The only realistic way forward is thepath of dialogue and confidence building. The Secretary has also publicly recognized that Kashmir is now onthe international agenda. Given the potential cost of a conflict, the international community has focused onthe need to reduce tension and demobilize. No one from the outside can impose a settlement, but we must workto help the two sides further de-escalate current tensions and begin to tackle the more fundamentaldifferences between them.

Both sides have reaffirmed their desire for a peaceful political solution to their differences. PresidentMusharraf has pledged that his government will provide no support for infiltration across the Line of Control,and that he will not permit Pakistan to be used as a base for terrorist attacks in any other country. Pakistanneeds to sustain that pledge in order to begin a process of resolution of the immediate crisis and of its morefundamental differences with India. We also look to India to take further de-escalatory actions, as Pakistancarries through with its commitments. As tensions begin to subside, New Delhi should agree to resume talkswith Islamabad on all issues, including Kashmir. During his recent meetings with Indian leaders in New Delhi,Secretary Powell saw that there was a solid commitment to dialogue. He said that India understands that theirdialogue had to include all the issues between the two nations but especially it had to include Kashmir.

Kashmir

The problems of Kashmir cannot be resolved through violence, but only through a healthy political processand dialogue between the parties. We look forward to India holding free and fair state elections beginninglater this month. We also encourage a continuation and expansion of the nascent efforts to engage Kashmiriseparatist leaders. Kashmiris, Pakistanis and Indians must do their part to ensure that the upcoming electionscan be held in safety and without interference from those who would like to spoil them. Recent attacks onofficials and political party activists in Kashmir cannot be allowed to derail the election.

State elections can be an important step in a political process, but they alone cannot resolve the problemsbetween India and Pakistan, nor can they erase the scars of so many years of strife. Only a productive andsustained bilateral dialogue on all issues, including Kashmir, will prevent future crisis and finally bringpeace to the region. We are committed to staying engaged, in the months and years ahead, helping both partiesresolve their differences so that everyone in the region can live in dignity, prosperity and security.

Sri Lanka

As I said earlier, there are other serious conflicts in South Asia, in which thousands have died, andthousands more can die if they are not resolved. I’ll touch briefly on the situations in Sri Lanka andNepal. I hope that our discussion after the opening remarks will include some attention to these situations.

Recent developments in Sri Lanka have been encouraging and give us cause for cautious optimism. Afteralmost two decades of war, costing well over 60,000 lives, a serious peace process is now under way. Aceasefire has been in place since late last year. Norway, which has been acting as a facilitator, recentlyannounced that the Sri Lankan government and the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam have agreed to begin thefirst round of formal talks on September 16 in Thailand. The government’s announcement yesterday that it waslifting its ban on the Tamil Tigers as part of the peace process is another welcome development.

The United States has supported Norway’s efforts and we are continuing to watch developments veryclosely. We hope that the talks will eventually bring to an end this bitter conflict. The Norwegian governmenthas played a key role in bringing the two sides together in what appears to be a major step forward. We wishthem, and the Sri Lankan parties, continued success in their efforts toward peace. A negotiated politicalsettlement to this conflict would be the best demonstration that negotiation — not violence — provides themost effective means for dealing with contentious issues that divide and separate peoples throughout theworld.

We believe that such a settlement is possible if both parties continue to demonstrate the constructive andserious approach that has brought the process to this point. The people of Sri Lanka deserve nothing less.Everyone should understand, however, that the path to peace will not be smooth and that this is just the firststep on that journey. The United States strongly supports the Sri Lankan peace process, as the Presidentaffirmed in July when he met with the Sri Lankan Prime Minister in Washington. Deputy Secretary of StateArmitage recently concluded a successful visit to Sri Lanka, which included meetings with the Government, theOpposition, and Tamil leaders. Mr. Armitage emphasized the U.S. commitment to peace in Sri Lanka and ourdesire to help that country realize its great potential. We will continue to urge a negotiated settlement,which has as its goal a nation that is whole, at peace, and respects the rights of all of its citizens.

Nepal

I wish we could have as much optimism over an early end to the conflict in Nepal. That country continues toconfront a violent Maoist insurgency, now in its sixth year, which has left over 4,000 dead. The Maoists haveemployed ruthless tactics in the field and conducted terrorist attacks against both government targets andinnocent civilians. We acknowledge the Nepal government’s right and duty to protect its citizens, within theframework of its constitution. Unfortunately, the leaders of Nepal’s ruling political party are locked in apower struggle that inhibits the government’s effectiveness in dealing with the insurgents and undertakingdevelopment initiatives to start restoring its authority in the countryside. The United States is finalizingplans for assistance as part of an international response to end this brutal conflict and help bring peace toNepal. Our programs are intended to facilitate the government’s efforts both to restore security and tofocus on development and poverty reduction.

To truly end this conflict, the government and people of Nepal must build a better future for theircountry. Nepalis must hold their officials accountable for good governance and ending corruption. All mustwork to find the common ground on which to begin rebuilding what the Maoists have destroyed. We can assist inthat reconstruction by continuing to aid Nepal’s economic development. Peace can provide the space in whichNepal can diversify its economy, attract foreign investment, and seek sustainable and environmentally soundways to tap the potential of its natural resources. While much remains to be done, many in the internationalcommunity stand ready to assist.

Continued US engagement:

These then are three of the four major conflicts in South Asia. All need to be resolved to truly have peacein the region. It is our intention that the United States does what it can to move toward resolution of eachone. As Secretary Powell said in his visit to the region in July, what the United States is trying to do is toplay the role of a friend, a good friend to all the nations of South Asia. He observed that our relations withall of the nations of the region are perhaps better then at any time in the last quarter century. And notedthat if we are seen as a good partner then we can be in a position to perhaps assist nations in resolvingtheir differences. Not as a meddler nor as a mediator, but somebody whose good offices can help bring peopleto the table to deal with their differences. We hope that we will be able to play this role in the region.