The Drivers Of 2021

India is witnessing transformations at an unpreceedented speed and scale. The transformations are across all spheres of activity, impacting the socio-economic and political fabric of this country. There is clearly a move towards improving livability, making it easier to do business and improving the economy. From a governance perspective, the role of the people are evovling from being a mere voter, tax-payer and a general bystander on majoity of the issues to an active participant and influencer on majority of policy issues. There has been a renewed focus on global issues such as environment and sustainability, thereby bringing about strong measures to comply with global best practices. There have been visible audacious plans proposed and implemented by the government which have helped address the pressing issues plaguing the country’s development. The nature of the economy has also evolved from being a highly monsoon dependent to being virtually drought proof, that has helped provide the policy headspace to the government to drive growth & development. Many initiatives launched by the government have led to a phenomenon of Competitive Federalization thereby promoting country-wide development.

The enablement through wide-scale technology adoption (growing usage of drones, wireless technology etc.) and innovative processes has led to improved efficiency and greater success. The growth in opportunities and urbanization in India has led to a large population being attracted to move to India. India is now being perceived as a land of opportunities and the destination of the future.

It is also leading to friction being created among the old and the young, the traditional versus the forward looking, the Haves and the Have-Nots.

Below are nine trends that I see will be shaping India in 2021.

1. Changing demographics of the most youthful nation

Demographics continue to be a major driving force for the growth and much else in India. India accounts for nearly 17% of the world’s population[1] and is experiencing rapid demographic changes, with wide implications not only for the country but also across other regions of the world.

The key demographic trend is the increasing youthfulness of the country. Roughly 50% of the population is less than 24 years old. The implications of this demographic structure have started playing out on the key trends in this country. Cable TV was introduced in the country around 25 years ago. Internet came about 20 years ago. So, we have a large part of the population that has grown up with significantly higher exposure to information and global trends. Hence, their higher levels of aspirations are driving the direction in which this country is going.

This youthful population is technologically more skilled, socially more aware, politically more involved and economically more aspirational. Many of them are what is popularly called the “Digital Natives”. This enables a greater penetration of technology, leading to a Digital Pervasiveness in the country. Their economic aspirations are leading to rapid urbanization and also the trend of large number of start-ups and entrepreneurship flowering.

India’s working-age population is expected to balloon up, making India the largest contributor to the global working population. This would also make India an even larger market.

It will also provide a global workforce required for “Make in India”. However, we need to capitalize on this demographicsin the coming decade, through human resource development on an urgent basis, else India will be left in chaos with a high population and no growth.

2. People participation

Increasingly we are observing a greater participation of the people in issues of policy making, governance and change. The advent of social media and interactive mediums has given rise to increasing velocity of citizens’ interactions with policy makers on various issues. Again, the trend is being primarily driven by a more aware and politically active youthful population. Correspondingly, public administration is increasingly looking to place the citizen at the centre of policymakers’ considerations. Citizens are increasingly questioning the leaders they elect to the national, state and local levels on a wide range of issues which range from affordable housing to international relations.

The RTI Act has also been considerably utilized as a tool by citizens groups to influence and shape government functioning over the last decade. The inflow of information through this medium has empowered citizens to ask questions on various aspects of policies and programmes, especially with regards to accountability and governance.

We have also seen people movements in the form of candle-light vigils and participation in new forms of political movements which has not only pressurized the government machinery to act on certain issues, but also has created new political forces. We are witnessing largescale people movements such as the movement by the affluent Punjab farmers to put pressure on the government to change its recently enacted laws.

In tandem with a more pervasive television access and access to social media tools such as Twitter, people movement is both feeding into and feeding off a more realtime news transmission and opinion creation. It has forced the government machinery at Centre, State and local levels to take action on matters that would have traditionally been swept under the carpet, out of public memory and considerations. This is also helping break the stranglehold of a few powerful influencers on the government machinery, increasing accountability into all arms of the government – the executive, the legislative and the judiciary. This is one single most transformative trend that will continue to have considerable influence on how India transforms.

 3. Urbanization

The economic aspirations, coupled with squeezing out of excess labour from agriculture, is leading to rapid urbanization of India. The urbanization is being fuelled by both, mass migration from rural areas to urban areas and rural habitations evolving into semi-urban and urban habitations.

According to World Bank estimates, an unprecedented 50% of the Indian population would be residing in urban areas by 2041. Natural growth continues to be the significant element (approx. 40 million) of urban population growth during the period 2001 to 2011, as compared to net rural – urban migration (approx. 22 million).

A report by IIHS in 2011 estimates that the top 100 largest cities produce 43% of the country’s GDP, with 16% of the population and just 0.24% of the land area. Apart, from serious challenges related to habitat, transport and other facilities, it has also generated high expectations, especially among educated youth. India’s urbanization is thus playing a significant role in social transformation and economic mobility.

Urbanization in India has necessitated a phenomenal demand for land, thereby resulting in the formation of urban agglomerations. Managing population densities within Indian cities is a significant challenge in accommodating urban expansion, as is financing urban expansion and city renewal – thereby calling for innovative urban planning frameworks and regulations.

The trend of urbanization is expected to kick off larger consumption of steel, cement and other commodities and manufactured goods. It would also lead to more efficient cities, thus leading to larger consumption of services. It would thus feed into the economic aspirations of a burgeoning youthful population.

The government has also stepped in to support the urbanization trend, after relative apathy for much of the first 65 years of this country. Programs of Smart City, AMRUT, Swachh Bharat and Housing for All are expected to significantly contribute to the urbanization trensd in this country. 

4. Pervasive Digitization

Over the past two decades, there has been an exponential proliferation of digital technologies in the country. There are over 276 million mobile phone internet users in India as compared to 48 million users in 2012.The number of Internet users in India grew at an even more rapid rate, from 150million in 2012 to almost 350 millionin 2015, listing India on the 3rd rank globally. Again, it seems to be that a digitally more adaptable youthful population is driving the higher digital penetration in the country.

All information, things and spaces are getting digitized. We notice that not only is legacy information being digitized but also that new information is generated and consumed in a digital form. Governments are moving towards a regime where no paper certificates are required. Certificates will be digitally created and hosted.

Things are getting connected to the internet. From meters, to vehicles to pollution sensors, to shoes, glasses, watches, pacemakers, embedded medical devices – everything is getting digitized and connected to the Internet under the framework of Internet of Things (IOT). And hence everything can be remotely monitored and managed, increasing the levels of automation to unprecedented levels.

Spaces are getting connected. From homes and offices to public spaces getting free WiFi and 4G connectivity. Even spaces such as cars and public transportation are getting connected, and things, spaces and information are freely communicating with each other in an all pervasive digital fabric. With technologies such as 3D printing creeping in, even products are getting digitized, with the designs being sent over to homes to be printed and created, and hence if someone is short of a cup for a dinner party, all that the person has to do is print it out without stepping out from home.

This is transforming how we work, interact, transact and live.

5. Job creators vs job seekers

The economic aspirations of the youth are driving a larger number of startups being conceived, than ever before. They are moving away from the traditional aspiration of a comfortable job to high risk, high pay off world of startups. The youthful energies of the startups are transforming the business ecosystems and having a deep impact on our lives.

Many of the startups are supported by digital technologies and are hence in the domain of e-commerce and m-commerce. This startup ecosystem is being made possible due to the fact that a more youthful population is digitally enabled. It is interesting to note that more than 70 percent of the entrepreneurs are less than 35 years of age.

With nearly three to four startups emerging every day, India ranks third in the world in terms of the number of startups. It has been estimated that the in the year 2015, the number of startups grew at a rate as high as 40%. This increase in the number of startups has, in turn, led to a sharp increase in the number of employment opportunities within India.

However, there are a large number of startups that are not necessarily in the domain of e-commerce and m-commerce, but are definitely contributing to larger job creation in the country. These are services and manufacturing companies that are emboldened by the series of business process reforms being introduced by the central and state governments, which is making it easier to do business in India.

Clearly, the movement away from being job seekers towards being job creators, is one of the most significant trends in the country.

6. The conscious citizen - environmentally sensitive responsible consumption

The combined pressures of population growth, economic growth and climate change is placing increased stress on essential natural resources in India and globally. These issues have made people sensitive towards sustainable resource management. There is a movement towards adopting policies and practices that help reduce unnecessary consumption, reversing a trend of unfettered consumption as a mark of development. Slowly but surely, people are moving towards environmentally sensitive, responsible consumption. The awareness of the majority youthful population of India to the issues of climate destruction, is pushing the political and social thought process and policy making.

The trend is clearly demonstrated by the people support received by the odd-even cars scheme by Government of Delhi, for reducing the air pollution impact by vehicles. Even at greater personal discomfort, people moved onto public transportation and car-pooling.

This is in lock-step with the global trend that has being brewing for more than a decade, fueled by the youth, who have now come to occupy places of decision making.

Indian government is getting the political space, supported by this more-aware population, to boldly put forth its Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). India has committed to reduce the emissions intensity of GDP by 33-35 per cent by 2030 from the 2005 level, achieve about 40 per cent cumulative electric power installed capacity from non-fossil fuel based energy resources with a target of 175 GW by 2022 and creating an additional carbon sink of 2.5 to 3 billion tonnes of CO2 equivalent through additional forest and tree cover by 2030.

India is furiously adopting solar energy, in one of the most ambitious plans globally. Other renewable sources are also being tapped into, with cities trying to adopt more environmentally friendly transportation systems. With these ambitious yet achievable renewable energy, energy efficiency and emission reduction targets India is leading and walking the talk on the movement towards a more resourceful India and the planet.

7. Interconnectedness with the rest of the globe

With almost 40% of the GDP linked to global trade, India has rapidly become interconnected with the global economy. The interconnectedness is not just economic, but also in terms of culture, skills, technology, medicine, policy making, language and in almost all domains of life. The process that was kicked off over a hundred years ago, with India’s participation in World War I, where modern ideas and concepts started flowing into India at a much more rapid pace, has snowballed, and India is set to come back to global centre stage, by not only being influenced by global trends, but also by influencing the global trends.

As the veterans of World War I came back to India, they carried their thoughts and outlooks back into the society, transforming society. In a similar process, in pursuit of economic objectives, we are observing large movements of people from rural India (and urban India), to other countries and their interactions with the society back in their villages, is fundamentally altering age-old traditions, some even leading to aggravated class and caste frictions.

India’s cultural industry – movies, music, art etc – is also having deep impact globally. New words, forms of dance, forms of music, cinematography etc are evolving globally, with significant influence from India.

Similarly, Indian movies, music, art, theatre, lingua franca, are all getting deeply impacted by the global trends.

Economically, we see a continued increase in the levels of international trade and capital flows for India. We are observing that the voracious appetite of capital by India, is beginning to have noticeable influence on global capital flows.

This can have both positive and negative impacts for the economy. India’s merchandise trade as a percentage of GDP is currently hovering around 40%[2] which can substantially impact the economy. Though with the dropping oil prices the import bills are reducing and helping India maintain the targeted current account deficit as well as fiscal deficit of 3.9% of the GDP and overall inflation, however with the reduced global demand due to slowdown of Europe and China, there has been drop in exports as well. However, as the trend toward increased economic interconnectedness is expected to continue, Government of India is ensuring that they have the right policy frameworks in place to capture the benefits of trade and manage the risk through ongoing and upcoming fiscal policies like increase FDI limits in insurance, railways, defense, encouraging privatization of loss making public sector companies.

These policies are also helping in trade liberalization, economic reforms and freer movement of capital and technology from the developed world to India and helping India becoming increasingly important player in international finance, being one of the most sort after destination for investment for global investors.

 8. Transformational national initiatives

The government has taken up a slew of initiatives that have been audacious in scale and transformational in nature. These initiatives have shaped the governance within the country. These initiatives are driven by the aspirations of the youthful population – aspirations for better living conditions and pursuit of happiness. Unless India is able to rapidly develop and transform, it could possibly stare at an implosion driven by the disgruntled youth. And hence the urgent need for the large national initiatives.

Government programs address the wide range of issues in a structured manner. A set of programmes is aimed to provide the safety net to the vulnerable sections of the society as the nation goes through the upheavals that will emerge from such rapid transformation. These programmes include financial inclusion, targeted subsidy delivery etc. another set of programmes are focused on creating a vibrant economy that will lead to the wealth creation necessary for fueling the transformation and to meet the aspirations of the burgeoning youth. This includes programmes such as improving Ease of Doing Business in India, enabling the startup ecosystem, Make in India, largescale infrastructure development etc. A third set of programmes focus on providing a better life to its people through initiatives such as housing for all, toilets for all etc.

The scale at which the initiatives are been implemented has been audacious and transformational. For instance, a record setting 360 million bank accounts have been opened within the country under Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana. In addition to being audacious in scale, the implementation methodology has been innovative. Under improving Ease of Doing Business initiative and Smart City initiative, the country witnessed the phenomenon of Competitive Federalism. This innovative mechanism to have the Centre and the states work in alignment, is being extended to many other programmes. Furthermore, more than 30,000-40,000 citizens are giving up LPG subsidy every day for contributing to nation building. This demonstrates that the cynicism in the society is giving way to youthful morality and exuberance. Such unprecedented response from the citizens is reshaping governance within the country into a more participatory governance. It has led to the emergence of a new trend which would significantly influence the country’s future.

 9. Asymmetric warfare

For a long time, India has been at the receiving end of asymmetric warfare, in the form of terrorism. A much smaller amount of effort (in the form of crafting and running terror infrastructure) from adversaries was tying down a disproportionate amount of Indian defence assets and forces. However, we witness new dimensions of asymmetric warfare emerging in the country.

The country is facing asymmetric warfare in the form of fake currencies being pumped in (economic warfare), cyberattacks, large cale migrations (which may be unintended but is exposing the country to demographic challenges), water diversion from key river systems and social warfare enabled through technology (MMS being circulated leading to social disturbances). The ability to withstand such attacks is not limited to the abilities of the military forces but require a larger capacity building within the financial institutions, diplomatic institutions an common people (possibly through curriculum change to enable them to withstand cyberattacks, such as phising, and social attacks such as the one that was witnessed in Bangalore that targeted Northeasterners), and corporates.

The trend of asymmetric warfare is only going to be amplified and emanate in several more dimensions. We have already witnessed what is possibly a global scale germ warfare, if the allegations of Covid-19 being China-made are true.

In summary, demographics, technology and governance will shape the coming year and the decade. Will it also propel India into a major prosperous economy and power that India has been striving for?

(Dr Jaijit Bhattacharya is President of Centre for Digital Economy Policy Research. Views are personal, and do not necessarily reflect those of Outlook Magazine)