Jittery Junta

The ruling military junta in Myanmar is showing signs of nervousness as theunrest of the students and monks is not only persisting, but is even showingsigns of spreading across the country despite repressive measures taken by thearmy.

It was initially the students, who took to the streets against the Junta onAugust 19,2007, in protest against the economic hardships caused to the peopleby a sudden increase in fuel prices imposed by the Junta,  which has doubled  diesel prices and imposed  a five-fold rise of compressednatural gas prices. Though economic hardships were the initial trigger for theunrest, the repressive measures  subsequently taken by the Junta areturning the movement into a fresh movement for the restoration of democracysimilar to what Myanmar had witnessed in 1988.

Initially, the number of students involved in the demonstrations was smalland the Junta was confident of being able to suppress it through its civiliancollaborators belonging to the Union Solidarity and Development Association(USDA), a front organisation of the intelligence agencies, without the armydirectly coming into a confrontation with the protesters.

The intelligence agencies were totally taken by surprise by the revival of a students' movement, resembling that of 1988, which led to the exit of Gen.NeWin. Initially, the agencies had reportedly assessed that the unrest would beconfined to a small number of students in Yangon and could be easilysuppressed.Their optimistic assessment proved wrong when despite large-scalepreventive arrests of student and political activists, including 13 leadersassociated with the 1988 movement, the student demonstrations started spreadingto other cities and small towns.

The Junta's nervousness increased on September 5, 2007, when, to itssurprise, about 300 Buddhist monks, many of them young, in the central city ofPakokku took to the streets in protest against the increase  in fuel pricesand in solidarity with the student protesters. For the first time since theeruption of the protests on August 19, military force was used to disperse themonks. Soldiers of the Army  and the state-backed militia  beat up themonks and some members of the public, who were watching the protesting monks andencouraging them. The next day, the monks , in protest against the use of forceagainst them, held a group of 20 government officials hostage for several hoursand attacked  a store and a home belonging to militia leaders. The monksalso started demanding a formal apology from the Government for the use of forceagainst peaceful religious leaders.

Totally unnerved by the monks coming out into the streets in solidarity withthe protesting students and the long-suffering common people, the Junta and thepublicity organs controlled by it accused Aung San Suu Kyi, the legendary leaderof the democracy movement, who is under house arrest, of instigating trouble bythe students and the monks. A statement of the Junta disseminated by the StateTelevision on September 9, 2007, accused  her National League for Democracy (NLD) of  attacking the state through a string of protests and threatenedit with unspecified action. The statement said: “The NLD took advantage of theincrease of fuel prices by the state and tried to exploit the situation to mounta political attack. They send letters to international organizations, embassiesand governments, requesting assistance. They cooperated with the so-called ‘88Generation Student Group’ and exile groups to bring about demonstrations,riots and terrorist acts similar to 1988.The Government will never tolerate suchmalicious acts and will take effective action against those committing them.”

The same day, the New Light of Myanmar, a Government-run newspaper,  accused the UK  and the US of supporting the protesters.It said:“They are aiding and abetting above-ground destructive elements insidethe country.They are using national traitors in exile, left-wing and right-wingpolitical groups and insurgent remnants at the border by giving them allnecessary assistance.”

Mr.Nyan Win, a spokesman of the NLD, has refuted the Junta's allegations thatit was behind the protests. According to the NLD, it is a spontaneous movementby the long-suffering people. The Junta has accused  13 detaineddissidents, most of them leaders of the 88 Generation Student Group who spentlong years in jail after the 1988  uprising, of indulging in acts ofterrorism. It warned: “The terrorists will be exposed and legal action will betaken against them."

Despite the repressive measures and warnings of severe action against theprotesters, the students as well as the monks have kept up their protestmovement. After the refusal of the Junta to apologise for the use of militaryforce against the monks  at Pakokku on September 5, large numbers of monkshave been coming out into the streets in different towns to protest against thebrutal suppression of a peaceful movement against economic hardships.

An organization called The Alliance of All Burmese Monks issued a statement on September 17,2007, calling upon all Buddhist monks in the countrynot to accept alms, a Buddhist tradition, from the members of the Armed Forces,the Police and other public servants co-operating with the Junta in itsrepressive measures.  The Alliance has said that it does not look upon themas true Buddhists and hence would not accept alms from them. It has called uponall those military and police personnel and other public servants, who regardthemselves as true Buddhists, not to co-operate with the Junta in its repressionof the common people. In response to its call, there were demonstrations byBuddhist monks at Yangon, Chauk, Kyaukpadaung, Aunglan, Pakokku, Pegu and Sittweon September 18.

The biggest protest demonstration was at Sittwe where over 2,000persons---monks and others--- marched in protest against the economic policiesof the Junta and its repression of the protesters. The Police personnel deployedto prevent the demonstrations ran away. The Army had to be called in to dispersethe demonstrators through the use of tear gas. About 300 monks took part in thedemonstrations at Yangon, about 800 in Pakokku, about 700 in Pegu, and about 100each in other places.

The students and monks have refrained from projecting their movement as insupport of Aung San Suu Kyi and her NLD. Instead, they are projecting it as aspontaneous movement provoked by the economic and repressive policies of theJunta.

While the Junta is jittery over its inability to effectively suppress theprotests and is concerned over the failure of its intelligence agencies todetect the preparations for the protest movement, there is as yet no threat toits continuing hold on power. The protests are persisting and well co-ordinated,but not yet massive. In an interview to the Reuters news agency, Mr Htay Kywe,one of the leaders of the 1988 movement, who has evaded arrest so far, said:“There is no way this will stop. As long as the public are experiencing a lackof development, economic hardship, authoritarian rule and injustice, there willbe, and will always be, a situation where the public will not accept it and willfight back. Like the rising tide and waves, the military government will behearing these voices loud and clear.”

The protesting students and monks are angry not only against the Junta, butalso against the Chinese for continuing to support the Junta. There is alsoresentment over the fact that while the people of the country are suffering dueto shortages and heavy prices of fuel, the Junta should be selling oil and gasto the Chinese. They have appealed to the Myanmar exiles abroad to demonstratein front of the Chinese diplomatic missions to express their resentment over theChinese support to the Junta.

There is also considerable unhappiness  over the Indian co-operationwith the Junta in various fields, but this unhappiness has not yet turned intoanger. There is still a lot of goodwill for India. India should not lose thisgoodwill by a policy of supporting the Junta, right or wrong. The time has cometo make it clear to the Junta that while India follows a policy ofnon-interference in the internal affairs of other countries, it cannot remaininsensitive to the feelings and sufferings of the common people of Myanmar.India should avoid any high-level official interaction with the Junta at thistime. There have been reports that Shri Murli Deora, the  Petroleum ministerof the government of India, is to visit Myanmar  from September 23, 2007.If true, this will be ill-advised.

B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. of India,New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies, Chennai.