Jihad After The Quake

Many in South Asia had hoped that the earthquake of October8, 2005, which killed tens of thousands of people and affected millions on bothsides of the Line of Control (LoC) would put a halt, at least momentarily, tothe terrorist campaign in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) and allow for unhinderedrelief and rehabilitation operations. Some fantasists went so far as to see inthis natural disaster a ‘window of opportunity’ for dramatic cooperation andan improvement of relations between India and Pakistan.

[The official death toll of the quake in J&K has beenpegged at 1308, which includes 1206 civilians and 102 SF personnel. At least6622 people are injured while 12 Army and 21 Border Roads Organisation personnelare still missing. While at least 40,000 people have died in Pakistan occupiedKashmir (PoK), 38,007 people have died so far in the North West FrontierProvince (NWFP) in Pakistan].

However, the terrorist campaign, evidently, recognizes nobounds and is not constrained by the humanitarian crisis in the wake of naturaldisasters. The assassination of J&K Minister of State for Education, Dr.Ghulam Nabi Lone, in the high security zone of Tulsibagh in capital Srinagar onOctober 18, 2005, is an indication that the Kashmir jihad will not beslowed down even by natural calamities. Communist Party of India-Marxist (CPI-M)legislator, Mohammed Yousuf Tarigami, escaped unhurt in a simultaneousassassination attempt at his house, approximately 300 yards from the Minister’sbungalow, though two security force (SF) personnel and a civilian were killed inthese incidents.

That terrorist groups would continue to maintain the nowconsistent and calibrated levels of violence is evident from the fact that, twodays after the quake, 10 persons, belonging to four families, were killed by theHizb-ul-Mujahideen (HM) at Dhara and Gabbar in Rajouri district. At least 26civilians, 18 SF personnel and 46 terrorists have died in terrorist-relatedviolence between October 8 and October 23.

On the ground in J&K, the terrorists are also attemptingto take advantage of the earthquake relief operations along the LoC. Theycarried out two unsuccessful infiltration attempts immediately after the quakein order to benefit from the disorder caused by the natural disaster. DefenceMinister, Pranab Mukherjee, stated, on October 16: "Militants have madeabout five infiltration attempts since the October 8 earthquake, including twoon a single day. About 25-29 of them have been killed." With the SFsengaged in relief, rescue and rehabilitation efforts, the terrorists arescouting for soft targets and also attempting to push in as many infiltrators aspossible. The timing is crucial, since winter is rapidly setting in and plansfor subversion have to be in place before the mountain passes close. The quakemay have rendered the terrorists’ task somewhat easier, since unconfirmedreports suggest that the porosity of the border has increased slightly, forinstance in the Uri sector of Baramulla District near the LoC.

The assassination of Dr. Lone, reportedly carried out by theLashkar-e-Toiba (LeT), was intended to disrupt relief and rescue operations inthe quake-hit Valley. It was also an attempt to bolster the ranks of the jihadisand mark their presence, especially after a significant loss of men andmaterial in Pakistan and PoK. The challenge for the security establishment inJ&K is now two-fold: maintaining their guard even as they struggle tocomplete relief and rehabilitation work before the onset of winter. Theterrorists are expected to attempt to take advantage of this and negate thebalance that the Forces are currently maintaining. To that end, there could bemore high-profile incidents in the coming months, although the overall level ofviolence is not expected to see any drastic increase, primarily due to snow inthe higher reaches and because of the cumulative impact of the earthquake.

While authoritative assessments are unavailable, a fairamount of damage is reported to have occurred to some terrorist training campsin Pakistan and PoK. According to sources, camps of groups such as the Jaish-e-Mohammed(JeM), LeT,  Tehreek-ul-Mujahideen (TuM), HM and Al-Badr, which werelocated within a radius of 10 kilometers from the epicenter of the quake inMuzaffarabad, have been damaged. A wireless intercept of the TuM indicated thatone of the outfit’s building near Muzaffarabad, the capital of PoK, had beendestroyed and some cadres were buried under it. The Harkat-ul-Mujahideen (HuM)training centres at Balakot and Batrasi (NWFP), the JeM camp at Attock (Punjabprovince), Al-Badr’s at Oghi (NWFP), an LeT camp at Mansehra (NWFP) and an HMrecruitment camp at Jungle-Mangal (PoK) have also been damaged.

Major General M. S. Balhara, General Officer Commanding KiloForce in J&K, stated: "We have intercepted many messages of militantsin North Kashmir and they all indicate that around 600-700 militants were killedin the quake. The control stations of Lashkar-e-Toiba and Hizb-ul-Mujahideenhave been destroyed, too, across the Line of Control opposite Kupwara sector.The launching pads of militants have also been smashed by the quake."Balhara added that an LeT message intercepted at Shamshabari range revealed thatthe group had lost 200 cadres in one PoK camp. At a briefing by the Union HomeMinistry in New Delhi on October 16, Director General of Military Operations,Lieutenant General Madan Gopal, stated that the Hizb and LeT had suffered majorlosses in their PoK camps. While the exact number of destroyed camps is yet tobe ascertained, it is safe to assume that significant destruction would haveoccurred to the jehadi infrastructure since the whole city ofMuzaffarabad has been flattened. Sources said that communication centres of theHM (near Muzaffarabad) and TuM were among those that suffered severe damage.

Nevertheless, the jihadis are currently regroupingwith the prevalent atmosphere also offering them an opportunity to reinforcetheir support structures within PoK and in Pakistan, at the expense of theadministration, which has come in for a great amount of flak for its delayed andineffective response to the disaster. Groups that advocate radical Islamconsider relief efforts and social aid to people who have been disregarded bythe state as an important part of their strategy. According to Mohammed Shehzad,who has reported extensively from the earthquake-hit areas in Pakistan and PoK,"the civil administration was seen nowhere in Muzaffarabad. The Army was inthe bulk but it was not helping the people… A number of lives could have beensaved had the Army soldiers helped the civilians. But the Army took no suchinitiative. Its officers still wore the starched uniform and the shining shoes;puffed the imported cigars; and ate the rich meals (sic)."Damningly, Saeed Bokhari, a schoolteacher at Chalpani, a village ten kilometersaway from Muzaffarabad, said, "the Army is showing preference for therelatives of soldiers in rescuing victims."

The state’s acts of commission and omission have reportedlysparked off enormous hostility against the Pakistan Army and the Musharrafregime. Indeed, it is this gathering animosity that has conferred legitimacy onthe jihadi presence in the day-to-day chores of rescue and relief.Jamat-ud-Daawa, the parent organisation of the LeT, is reported to have diverteda considerable part of its network towards relief efforts.

Among the other Islamist groups that have contributed toquake relief are the Karachi-based Al-Rashid Trust (ART), one of the 27 groupsand organisations listed by the US State Department on September 22, 2001, fortheir involvement in financing and supporting a network of internationalIslamist terrorist groups; and the charity wing of the Jamaat-e-Islami. TheMusharraf regime’s vacillating and deficient response has led people to seekassistance from the jihadis. The JD, according to credible Pakistanireportage, has emerged as the most "effective relief agency that has builtup an excellent rapport with the victims." In Muzaffarabad, JD activists,numbering around 350 and connected through wireless telephony, manage 16ambulances, motorboats, mobile X-ray machines/operation theatres, and arefeeding approximately 3,000 people daily, according to the Pakistan MediaMonitor. It also has an orthopedic unit near Sangam Hotel in Muzaffarabadunder the supervision of Dr. Amir Aziz, who was arrested in 2002 (subsequentlyreleased) for treating Osama bin Laden.

While relief efforts by groups such as the JD have providedmuch-needed succor, the inevitable gratitude of grief-stricken families willcome in handy for the larger goals of the jihadis. There is some evidencealready of the Islamist extremists recruiting for the jihad from amongstthe quake-affected populace. The Pakistan Media Monitor quotes Mohammad Lateef,a 16-year-old resident of Moongbajri, a small village in Bagh District, asstating: "I would repay their help by joining them next summer and fightingthe atrocious Indian Army".

More insidious is the hidden and potentially long-term impactof the natural disaster on the socio-political landscape of the region, whichhas for long been the epicentre of the Kashmir jihad. For instance, thequake has destroyed almost all the schools in PoK. District Bagh (100 km fromMuzaffarabad) had 341 schools for a population of 500,000 while Muzaffarabad,capital of PoK, had 1,512 schools for a population of 900,000 people. Virtuallyall school buildings in these areas have been flattened out, and thousands ofstudents face an uncertain future, especially with the Pakistan Prime MinisterShaukat Aziz himself indicating that reconstruction and rehabilitation ‘wouldtake decades’. The jihadi groups, within such a milieu, would find itfar easier to bolster their ranks. According to Mohammad Amir Rana, there aremore than 1,200 Madrassas (seminaries) in PoK being run by groups likethe LeT, JeM, HM, Al-Badr, Jamiat-ul-Mujahideen, Al-Barq, Harkat-ul-Mujahideenand Jamaat-e-Islami (some of these, would, no doubt, also have been damaged ordestroyed by the earthquake). Further, the extremists are also propagating theview that the quake was the ‘punishment of God’ (Azab-e-Elahi) forabandoning the jihad.

And while the Government has banned adoption of quake-hitchildren, groups like the Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal and JD have announced, throughmosque loudspeakers, banners and pamphlets, that they will adopt childrenorphaned by the earthquake. "The Jamatud Dawa has a huge complex at MisrialRoad in Rawalpindi, by the name of Maaz bin Jabal. We will set up colonies inthe complex where these children would be put up according to their age. Variousayahs (nursemaids) will raise them, ensuring motherly love," saidZafar Iqbal, head of the JD’s ‘education wing’. The JD has more grandioseplans of rehabilitation. It plans to provide ‘education’ to students whoseschools have been destroyed by the quake. "We have a huge hostel in theMuridke Markaz that is spread on 170 acres. We will shift the affected studentsthere to continue their studies. Moreover, we have 180 schools in Punjab. Wehope to accommodate every affected student," Iqbal added.

With the state’s writ undermined by its ineffectiveresponses to the earthquake, and with popular frustration and anger against theregime growing, the terrorist groups have easily occupied the space created bythe humanitarian crisis, and have become more brazen about their activities.More significant, however, is Islamabad’s continuing ambivalence towards the jehadis.While President Musharraf told CNN on October 20 that banned religiousgroups would not be allowed to conduct relief efforts in the quake-strickenareas, the Interior Minister Aftab Khan Sherpao, while acknowledging the role ofIslamist groups, declared, they are "the lifeline of our rescue and reliefwork." General Musharraf has also stated that, "everyone is motivatedto help the quake victims. I am not going to prevent anyone from helping thepeople."

While the quake has undoubtedly inflicted some damage on the jihadiinfrastructure in Pakistan, the setback is expected to be momentary, andwould be more than compensated by the emerging circumstances and by theaccelerated replenishment rate of cadres. There is also an expectation of therenewal of state support after a modicum of stability is achieved on the reliefand reconstruction front.

Kanchan Lakshman is Research Fellow, Institute for ConflictManagement; Assistant Editor, Faultlines: Writings on Conflict &Resolution. Courtesy, the South Asia Intelligence Review of the SouthAsia Terrorism Portal