Since 2002, terrorism-related fatalities have demonstrated asecular decline in Jammu and Kashmir (J&K), and this trend continued in2006, with a total of 1,116 persons killed. More than 40,000 people have losttheir lives in the conflict since 1989, and, even at present, an average ofnearly 100 lives is lost each month in J&K.
Despite the declines in indices of violence, the state continues to sufferfrom high levels of violence and subversion. Pakistan’s military regime, whichwas forced to scale down its proxy-war under intense international scrutiny, hasnevertheless shown no indication of dismantling the vast infrastructure ofterrorism on its soil. According to the union home ministry’s (MHA)"Status Paper on Internal Security Situation" (presented in Parliamenton November 30, 2006), the terrorist infrastructure in Pakistan and Pakistanoccupied Kashmir is yet to be dismantled and is being "used by Pak basedand Pak ISI sponsored outfits like JeM [Jaish-e-Mohammed], LeT [Lashkar-e-Toiba], Al-Badr, HM [Hizb-ul-Mujahideen], etc."
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Amidst the hype on people-to-people contacts andconfidence-building measures (CBMs), it is evident that the reduced levels ofviolence in J&K primarily reflect a tactical rather than strategic shift inthe Pakistani calculus, as a two-pronged strategy of parallel talks andterrorism is pursued by the Musharraf regime to secure its ambitions againstIndia.
Talks between India and Pakistan thus continue under theaegis of the Composite Dialogue, even as terrorism in J&K, and sporadicallyin other parts of the India, persists. At the same time, Pakistan has beencomplaining bitterly about the slow pace of ‘progress’ towards the goals itseeks to secure on the negotiating table, having failed to achieve these throughits vicious campaign of terrorism over 17 years. The peace process,consequently, remains, tactical rather than substantive, as the hiatus betweenthe rival positions on Kashmir remains unbridgeable, and much of the‘progress’ has been in peripheral areas, such as the restoration ofcommunication links, people-to-people exchanges, Track Two diplomacy and a rangeof confidence building measures. At the same time, the ground situation inJ&K remains a cause for concern, as a stream of infiltrators continues tofind its way into the terror wracked state. While the various CBMs currentlyoperational between the two countries may have strengthened processes of'emotional enlistment', have failed to alter India's and Pakistan's statedpositions on the Kashmir issue, or to change the fundamentals of the conflict inand over Kashmir. An end to the bloodshed in the state, consequently, seems asunlikely today as it was at any given point since the dramatic escalation of themilitancy in 1989-90.
