'It's Not Getting Worse'

Revelant excerpts from Secretary Rumsfeld's Media Availability in Qatar, June 11, 2002.

Q: Mr. Secretary, in light of your approaching trip to India andPakistan, what do you make of the steps that India has taken over the past day or so totake the edge off the tensions with Pakistan, and what do you hope to accomplish by yourtrip to the region?

Rumsfeld: The situation with India and Pakistan appears to be a level,as opposed to an escalating situation. The two governments have been in touch with worldleaders -- Prime Minister Blair, President Bush, Secretary Powell and others. DeputySecretary Armitage was been there some days ago.

There are a lot of rumors about what various countries are doing. There is a lot ofspeculation in the press about what they are doing. I've been, needless to say, studyingthe cable traffic and I think that there is a growing awareness on the part of everyone inthe world that clearly a conflict there would be a terrible tragedy for each of thosecountries, and indeed for everyone in the entire region and the world.

My impression is that there have been some hopeful signs, and I look forward to goingin there this evening into India and having an opportunity to meet personally with theleadership there and have discussions with them.

Q: It is reported that you have some definite proposals that you arecarrying to discuss with the leaders on India and Pakistan. I mean, how do you intend todeal with the issues. Is that correct?

Rumsfeld: What do you have in mind?

Q: Well, you have some definite proposals by the U.S. to deescalatethe situation.

Rumsfeld: Well, we do. There is no question. We certainly have thingswe can discuss with him, and things they have been discussing, and I look forward tomeeting with them. But I am certainly not going to preview my discussions with them. I amgoing there to meet with them, and I think it would not be very gracious to be meetingwith them through the press before I meet with them.

But I have -- our country has good relationships with both Pakistan and India; we valuethose relationships. They have been relationships that have been strengthening in recentmonths and years, and needless to stay our country has an interest in each of those twocountries succeeding and doing well. Clearly the kind of tension that has existed isharmful to each country; it is very expensive and very stressful to maintain forces onhigh alert.

It is clear that people are reluctant to travel in those countries when there is kindof tension so from an economic standpoint it is difficult, quite apart from the rest.

Q: Sir, if I may follow up. Do you believe the facts of the groundsupport the announcements that he has made?

Rumsfeld: Well, I've not been on the ground in the LOC in Kashmir. Itis a difficult part of the world. It is 15- to 20,000 feet high in the northernthree-quarters of the LOC. It's mountainous. I don't know anyone has perfect visibilityinto what is taking place there.

Second, there is a concern that very likely, there were already militants in there andthat someone could engage in an act that could create an incident that someone could say,well, you know those people just came across the LOC. But they might very well havealready been there.

Needless to say, a third worry is the fact that we know al Qaeda and Taliban leftAfghanistan and transited into Iran and into Pakistan and it's conceivable that some ofthem might decide that it would be in their interest to create an incident, purposely, notfor the benefit of Kashmir, but to cause a conflict between India and Pakistan, with thehope that they could pick up the pieces to their advantage.

So this is -- each side is doing what they are doing. They are reflecting on where theyare and the danger that exists with a million people facing each other -- armed people --and they are taking steps, or thinking about taking steps, and each is going to have to beaware that it is not going to be a perfect process. That is to say, things can stillhappen for reasons other than either of those two parties. And to the extent that we areall aware of that, and they are, then I think that such an incident would be less likelyto cause a miscalculation.

Q: Have you, on the Indian side, yet seen any specific gestures ontheir part to reduce tension, either diplomatically or militarily.

Rumsfeld: I am going to wait until I visit with them later today.

Q: What is the best outcome that you can reasonably expect from thisvisit to India and Pakistan, and also, do you believe that, you know, the threat ofnuclear war has been diminished fully?

Rumsfeld: You know, in my role as a representative of the UnitedStates that is just about to go visit India and Pakistan, it seems to me that talkingabout it -- a subject that can be then interpreted, or carried in the media or the pressin a somewhat inflammatory way is a worrisome thing. So I try not to. I try to respond ina way that is precise and accurate and direct, but not inflammatory.

The situation is as well known to everyone in this room as it is to me, in terms ofwhat the externals are. The externals are that you have two important countries that havesomething like a million people facing each other that are armed and they have a historyof having had conflicts over Kashmir and each country has nuclear weapons.

Now, where are they? Generally in a set of relationships that are tense, it is eithergetting better or it's getting worse, worse or it's getting better, or it is level.

I have responded that my personal view is at the moment is something like level. It'snot getting worse, and that's a good thing. I have also asserted, which I believe that --that each of these countries has a role to play in the world that's important, and that aconflict between them clearly would have a damaging effect on their circumstance and theirpeople. I think that responsible leadership, as each of these two countries have, willaddress those issues in a responsible way.