Iraq On The Verge Of War

ZNET FAQ
Iraq On The Verge Of War
Frequently asked questions and answers on theproposed 'war on Iraq'

StephenR. Shalom and Michael Albert

C1. Are U.S. leaders correct in theircharacterization of Saddam Hussein as a monster?

C2. Are U.S. leaders correct in theircharacterization of Saddam Hussein as a threat to world peace and security?

C3. What are the connections between alQaeda and Saddam Hussein?

C4. DoesSaddam Hussein have weapons of mass destruction?

C5. Isit true that Saddam Hussein used chemical weapons against Iran and against his own people?

C6. Howwould you deal with Iraq's WMD?

C7. IsHussein's announcement that he would allow in inspectors without condition to be taken at face value?

C8. Can'tHussein fool the inspectors?

C9. CanSaddam Hussein be deterred?

C10.Bush claims he does not need specific Security Council authorization to legally attack Iraq. Is this claimtrue?

C11.Has Iraq violated many Security Council resolutions?

C12. What are the likelyconsequences of a U.S. attack on Iraq? On the people of Iraq? On the prospects for democracy in the MiddleEast?

C13.Are the claims about civilian deaths in Iraq due to the sanctions exaggerated? And isn't Saddam Husseinresponsible for the humanitarian crisis by his diverting of money to his weapons programs?

C14. Aren't the sanctions essentialto prevent Iraq from developing weapons of mass destruction?

C15. Christopher Hitchens says:'you can't subject the Iraqi people to the cruelty of sanctions for so long while leaving the despot inplace.' Is this an argument for "regime change" and war?

C16. Who authorized the U.S. andBritish air forces to patrol the no-fly zones over Iraq?

C17. Do the American people supporta war against Iraq?

C18. Why does the U.S. government want to goto war against Iraq?

C1. AreU.S. leaders correct in their characterization of Saddam Hussein as a monster?

There are two possible meanings of theword "monster." What most people mean by the term is a leader who pursues policies that grotesquelyviolate every norm of morality and international human rights law. By this definition, Saddam Hussein iscertainly a monster: he has murdered thousands of political opponents and tens of thousands of members ofethnic minorities, repressed the population, and waged wars of aggression against Iran and Kuwait. A second,hypocritical definition is that any one whom the U.S. government considers an enemy and insufficiently pliant,is for those reasons a monster. And using this second definition, Saddam Hussein is indeed a monster, at leastsince his invasion of Kuwait.

How can we tell which definition U.S.leaders use? There are two simple tests. First, look at instances of leaders in other countries who are grossviolators of human rights but who serve U.S. interests. Are they branded by the U.S. government as monsters,which they would be by the first definition, but not by the second? To take a single example: Suharto ofIndonesia presided over killing at least half a million Indonesians and some two hundred thousand EastTimorese, but not only did Washington not denounce him as a monster, it provided him with arms and diplomaticsupport (and even provided his army with names of communists to wipe out).

The second test is to look at how theUnited States characterized and treated Saddam Hussein himself, before August 1990, when he was serving U.S.interests. It was in this period that his worst atrocities took place -- his invasion of Iran, his use ofchemical weapons against both Iran and Iraqi Kurds, his Anfal campaign of slaughter against the Kurdishpopulation. Again, not only did Washington refrain from denouncing him as a monster, it provided him witheconomic aid, military intelligence, diplomatic support, and equipment that could be (and presumably was) usedfor his weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs. Indeed, when the Ba'ath party (later to be headed bySaddam Hussein) first came to power in a bloody coup back in 1963, the coup had U.S. backing and, reportedly,the United States provided the Ba'athists with names of leftists to murder (see Andrew Cockburn and PatrickCockburn, Out of the Ashes: The Resurrection of Saddam Hussein, New York: HarperPerennial. 1999, p. 74).

Two of Hussein's atrocities deservespecial mention. In 1975, the United States which, together with Iran and Israel, had been aiding a Kurdishrevolt in Iraq, abruptly cut off its support for the Kurds when the Shah of Iran, Washington's close ally,struck a deal with Iraq. As Baghdad turned its full wrath on the Kurds, many of the latter sought U.S.assistance in obtaining asylum. In closed-session testimony, Secretary of State Henry Kissinger explained whythe U.S. rejected their appeal for help: "covert action," he declared, "should not be confusedwith missionary work" (Select Committee on Intelligence, 1/19/76 [Pike Report] in Village Voice,2/16/76, pp. 85, 87n465, 88n471; William Safire, Safire's Washington, New York: Times Books, 1980, p.333).

In 1991, in the aftermath of the GulfWar, Hussein ruthlessly suppressed uprisings -- encouraged by U.S. propaganda broadcasts-- by Kurds in the north and Shi'ites in the south. U.S. officials permitted Hussein to usehelicopters (in fact, U.S. warplanes flew overhead watching the Iraqi helicopters carry out their slaughter)and refused to allow the rebels access to the vast store of Iraqi weapons that the U.S. military had captured.

So, yes, Saddam Hussein is a monsterin moral terms. But that is not his crime in the eyes of U.S. officials, for many of Hussein's most monstrousdeeds were committed with U.S. backing. For the U.S. he only became a monster when he would not follow orders.
 

C2. AreU.S. leaders correct in their characterization of Saddam Hussein as a threat to world peace and security?

Broadly, yes, of course they are. Thatis to say, Saddam Hussein, given no obstacles, could probably be relied on to hurt many more people by hisactions than he already has. But he doesn't confront a situation of no obstacles. Instead, he well knows thatif Iraq does anything to seriously endanger much less harm people outside its borders, it will simply beannihilated.

Hussein's military position is farweaker today than it was before the 1991 Gulf War, a war in which his forces were decisively defeated. Asconservative analyst Anthony Cordesman noted, "Iraq's military machine may retain a massive order ofbattle, but Iraq's lack of arms imports means that its military readiness and sustainability is only afraction of what it was in 1990" (The Military Balance in the Gulf, Center for Strategic andInternational Studies, July 2001, p. 79). And, whatever Hussein's arsenal of weapons of mass destruction(discussed below in question C4), surely his nuclear, chemical, and missile capabilities are less today thanin 1990. At the same time, the regular over flights of his country subject Iraq to far more intense andintrusive surveillance than was the case prior to the Gulf War.

If one had to predict which country inthe world was most likely to deploy its troops outside its borders, Iraq is hardly the most dangerous prospect-- not because Saddam Hussein is a peace-loving man, but because he has neither the meansnor prospects for gain from any such aggression in the present context. Yes, if an attack is unleashed onIraq, Hussein in desperation might launch missiles at Israel or Saudi Arabia, but this is a very differentmatter from his launching an attack out of the blue. Far more likely to wage war on their neighbors than isIraq are Israel or India, nations that are regionally dominant military powers. But of course, only one nationin the world has actually proclaimed its right to preemptively attack others, with or without UN authorization-- and that is the United States. So, yes, Saddam Hussein is a threat to world peace and security.But in that regard he doesn't hold a candle to George Bush.

And what motivates George Bush is notthe threat to the peace that Saddam Hussein represents, but other considerations which we discuss below (seequestion C18).
 

C3. What are theconnections between al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein?

Obviously, one cannot prove theabsence of connections. There are, however, good reasons for doubting any serious ties between the two.

Saddam Hussein's Ba'athist regime hasbeen ruthlessly secular and has had no love for fundamentalist groups. Al Qaeda, for its part, considers itstask the overthrow of all governments in the region that are insufficiently Islamic, and certainly Hussein'sregime counts as such. (One might note that Iraq did not have diplomatic relations with the Taliban regime --in fact, the only countries that did have diplomatic relations with the Taliban were the U.S. allies SaudiArabia, United Arab Emirates, and Pakistan.)

Of course, hostile parties cansometimes be useful to one another against a common enemy, but no evidence has come to light of cooperationbetween al Qaeda and Iraq. Ever since September 11, U.S. officials have been frantically looking for someconnection between the two. War hawks leapt on the report that Mohammed Atta, the leader of the September 11hijackers, met in Prague with an Iraqi intelligence agent in April 2001. The Czech government, basing itselfon the evidence of one informant -- a student who said he recognized Atta's photograph as someone he had seenwith the Iraqi agent five months earlier -- said it was 70 percent sure the story was accurate, but the formerdirector of Czech intelligence noted that "These informants tend to tell you what you want tobelieve" and the head of Czech foreign intelligence was skeptical. The FBI (which ran down "hundredsof thousands of leads") and the CIA concluded that the report was inaccurate; they found no evidence thatAtta was in Prague on the relevant date and some evidence that he was in the United States (WashingtonTimes, 6/19/02; Prague Post, 7/17/02; Washington Post, 5/1/02; Newsweek, 4/28/02 webexclusive; Newsweek, 8/19/02, p. 10; LA Times, 8/2/02).

On September 24, 2002, the Britishgovernment released a 55 page dossier laying out its case against Iraq. The evidence was said to come fromBritish intelligence and analysis agencies, but also from "access to intelligence from close allies"(p. 9). Surely this includes the United States and surely whatever hesitancy the United States governmentmight have about revealing intelligence information publicly would not prevent it from sharing suchinformation with its closest ally. The dossier presented zero evidence of any al Qaeda-Iraq links

In the last week of September-- in the face of international and domestic hesitancy regarding the rush to war --U.S. officials again raised the specter of al Qaeda-Saddam Hussein links. Rumsfeld said he had"bulletproof" evidence tying the two together, but, significantly, he did not present any of thatevidence and admits that it wouldn't hold up in a U.S. court of law.

There was one report, charged Rumsfeld,that Iraq provided "unspecified training relating to chemical and/or biological matters." The reportapparently came from Abu Zubaydah, a high-ranking al Qaeda prisoner who, according to an intelligencesource cited by Newsday, "often has lied or provided deliberately misleading information." As oneU.S. official told USA Today, "detainees have a motive to lie to U.S. interrogators: to encouragea U.S. invasion of Iraq, the better to make the case that the United States is the mortal enemy of Muslimcountries."

The head of the Senate intelligencecommittee, Bob Graham, said he had seen nothing connecting al Qaeda and Iraq. Sen. Joseph Biden, who heard aclassified CIA briefing on the matter, disputes Rumsfeld's summary. Nebraska Republican, Senator Chuck Hagel,commented that "To say, 'Yes, I know there is evidence there, but I don't want to tell you any more aboutit,' that does not encourage any of us. Nor does it give the American public a heck of a lot of faith that, infact, what anyone is saying is true." Intelligence experts inside and outside the U.S. governmentexpressed skepticism, and a Pentagon official called the new claims an "exaggeration." And Frenchintelligence has found not a “trace” of evidence of any link. (NYT, 9/28/02; Newsday,9/27/02; USA Today, 9/27/02; Washington Post, 9/27/02; Financial Times, 10/6/02.)

This said, there is one connectionbetween Iraq and al Qaeda: namely, that an attack on Iraq may well play into al Qaeda's hands by destabilizingmuch of the Middle East and, in the words of former General Wesley Clark, possibly "supercharge"recruiting for the terrorist network (NYT, 9/24/02).

C4. DoesSaddam Hussein have weapons of mass destruction?

No one knows what weapons SaddamHussein has. Most analysts assume that he has biological and chemical weapons. No one believes he has nuclearweapons.

We can presume that the most damningclaims about the extent of his arsenal are contained in two recent documents: the September 24, 2002 dossierissued by the British government and an October 4, 2002 report by the CIA. There is good reason for thinkingthese documents exaggerated. For example, the British dossier identifies several once destroyed sites that itsays have been rebuilt by the Iraqis. But Hans Von Sponeck, the former UN humanitarian coordinator for Iraq,visited two of these sites and found that in fact they were still destroyed. Other British reporters visited some of the sites listed in the dossier(chosen by them) and found nothing suspicious (Guardian, 9/25/02).

Even if these documents were notexaggerated, however, they would make a good case for inspections, not war.
 

C5. Isit true that Saddam Hussein used chemical weapons against Iran and against his own people?

Yes. And such use is most certainly adespicable and heinous crime. And such use is one reason, among others, why it would be appropriate to callSaddam Hussein a "monster" on moral grounds (see question C1). The British dossier and the Oct. 4,2002 CIA report give details of these horrible actions by Hussein, but they omit one small fact: that the U.S.and British governments were backing Hussein when he committed these atrocities.

One should also note that Hussein'schemical munitions are not the only weapons of mass destruction that have been used in Iraq. Far more peoplehave died -- and are still dying -- from the diseases attributable to theU.S.-British sanctions than from Hussein's mustard gas or tabun. Indeed, as Karl and John Mueller notedin the mainstream journal Foreign Affairs (May-June 1999), “economic sanctions may well have been anecessary cause of the deaths of more people in Iraq than have been slain by all so-called weapons of massdestruction throughout history.”

C6. Howwould you deal with Iraq's WMD?

Security Council resolution 687, theresolution calling for the post-Gulf War destruction of Iraq's WMD systems, noted in paragraph 14 thatthe disarmament actions "represent steps towards the goal of establishing in the Middle East a zone freefrom weapons of mass destruction and all missiles for their delivery and the objective of a global ban onchemical weapons." The acquisition of WMD by one state generally encourages, rather than discourages,their acquisition by others. Thus, Anthony Cordesman notes that "Given the other major proliferators inthe region -- which include India, Iran, Israel, Pakistan, and Syria -- even a[n Iraqi] regimethat is not actively hostile to the U.S. might continue to develop nuclear weapons and long-rangemissiles in spite of its agreements not to do so." (The Military Balance in the Gulf, CSIS, July2001, p. 107) So the best method for dealing with Iraqi WMD -- both from the point of view ofjustice and efficacy -- is in the context of global or, barring that, regional disarmament.

To the United States and many otherWMD states, however, serious disarmament is not on the agenda. The United States is a party to the NuclearNon-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which sets up a class of "have" and "have-not"nations, with the U.S. in the privileged "have" category, but Washington has refused to meet itsobligation under the treaty to move towards disarmament; it has refused, for example to ratify theComprehensive Test Ban Treaty which have-not nations consider a minimal litmus test indicating acountry's commitment to the NPT.

The United States is also a party tothe Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC). As a report for the Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the MontereyInstitute of International Studies noted,

"Aftersigning the treaty in 1993, Washington largely ignored it, escaping national embarrassment only with alast-minute ratification just four days before its entry into force. Moreover, the United States tooksteps to dilute the Convention by including waivers in its resolution of ratification and implementinglegislation exempting U.S. sites from the same verification rules that American negotiators had earlierdemanded be included in the treaty."

Among the exemptions were the U.S.President's right to refuse an inspection of U.S. facilities on national security grounds. (See Amy E.Smithson, U.S. Implementation of the CWC," in Jonathan B. Tucker, The Chemical WeaponsConvention:Implementation Challenges and Solutions, Monterey Institute, April 2001, pp. 23-29.

The United States is also a party tothe Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention (BWC), but efforts to improve compliance with the treatyfloundered after Washington blocked continued discussions. (See Jonathan Tucker's Feb. 2002 analysis). Among other WMD states, Israel has refused to sign the NPT or the BWC or ratify the CWC; India and Pakistanhave refused to sign the NPT; and Egypt and Syria have not ratified either the CWC or the BWC.

But even though many nations acthypocritically, it would still be a good thing if Iraq's WMD programs were effectively inspected (not least,for establishing a precedent that could be extended to others). Most everyone favors the inspection of IraqiWMD, other than Saddam Hussein and, as we can infer from its actions, Washington. Everything the United Stateshas done for the last few months, and indeed for the last eleven years, has had the effect of discouragingIraq's cooperation with inspections. Security Council resolution 687 declared that sanctions would be liftedwhen Iraq was disarmed, but the United States promptly removed Hussein's incentive for disarmament when in May1991 deputy national security adviser Robert Gates officially announced that all sanctions would remain aslong as Saddam Hussein remained in power. In March 1997, secretary of state Madeleine Albright stated that"We do not agree with the nations who argue that if Iraq complies with its obligations concerning weaponsof mass destruction, sanctions should be lifted" -- and Hussein became more uncooperativewith the inspectors.

After the inspectors were withdrawn in1998 so U.S./U.K. bombing could proceed, it was discovered that the United States had used the inspectionteams for spying. Obviously, Iraq would be disinclined to admit the inspectors again if the United States wasdetermined to attack Iraq no matter what, for in that case admitting them would only weaken Iraq's defenses inthe face of the inevitable assault. So an assurance from Washington that compliance with UN inspections wouldforestall an attack would provide an incentive for Hussein's cooperation. But declared Secretary of StatePowell (ABC News, 5/5/02), regardless of whether inspectors are admitted, the United States "reserves itsoption to do whatever it believes might be appropriate to see if there can be a regime change." And then,when Iraq on September 16 declared its willingness to allow in the inspectors, the White House replied:"This is not a matter of inspections. It is about disarmament of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction andthe Iraqi regime's compliance with all other Security Council resolutions."

Now the United States is trying toforce through a Security Council resolution on inspections that could not possibly be accepted by Iraq-- essentially allowing U.S. military forces full access to Iraq and the right to unilaterallydeclare Iraq in non-compliance, thereby allowing the U.S. to invade Iraq without having to force its wayacross the border and with spies already in place to direct the attack (Guardian, 10/3/02). Such aproposal could have no other purpose than to make sure that inspections don't take place. Yes, Saddam Husseinhas tried to obstruct and manipulate previous inspections and loopholes need to be closed -- asinspections need to be imposed on all other WMD states as well. But U.S. efforts here are not aimed at makinginspections effective but at making them impossible. 

C7. IsHussein's announcement that he would allow in inspectors without condition to be taken at face value?

If a gigantic bully in the school yardsays to a little bully "let me look in your pocket to see if you have a rock that you might throw at meor I am going to bash your head with this baseball bat until there is nothing left of it," are we to takethe little bully's reply, "okay, go ahead and look," at face value? The question is about the same.If the little bully had a rock in his shoe, he'd say okay. If there was no rock, he'd say okay. He doesn'twant to get bashed in the head with a baseball bat. Every time the little bully said okay it would mean --okay, dig away in my pocket. The little bully would likely try, as well, both for dignity and for thepossibility of retaining some tiny measure of self defense, not to mention retaining means to bully those whoare even smaller -- to keep the gigantic bully out of some possible hiding places, of course. Isthere a difference? Only in that more is at stake. And in that the Bush/Hussein-scale bullies don't, in fact,generally hurt each other, but huge numbers of innocents instead. 

C8. Can'tHussein fool the inspectors?

Maybe. But no inspectors at all arefar easier to fool than some inspectors, and some inspectors are easier to fool than more inspectors. As bestanyone can tell, the inspectors in Iraq from 1991-1998 were far more effective at destroying WMD thanwas bombing either during the Gulf War or in 1998.

One might ask, also, can't the U.S.fool inspectors - can't India, can't Pakistan, can't China, can't Russia, can't France, can’t Israel?What inspectors, you say? Indeed. Very dangerous WMD arsenals in each of these countries are not subject toinspections at all, a matter that should worry anyone sincerely concerned with WMD arsenals.

C9. CanSaddam Hussein be deterred?

Suicide bombers or suicide pilotscannot be deterred. They have already chosen death. But Saddam Hussein has spent a lifetime precisely tryingto avoid death. You don't make it as a ruthless dictator without an over-developed survival instinct. In1991 during the Gulf War, Hussein withheld use of his chemical weapons. We don't know if he was deterred bythe U.S. (and Israeli) threats of disproportionate and massive retaliation or by the realization that by usingsuch weapons against coalition forces he would be guaranteeing a U.S. march on Baghdad -- buteither way, he was deterred. Given the certainty of instant annihilation for using his WMD, there is no reasonto believe that he is not deterrable.

Are there some circumstances, however,in which Hussein would not be deterred? Yes, if he thought he were doomed anyway, he might decide to kill asmany of his enemies as possible. So, ironically, the one circumstance most likely to elicit Hussein's use ofWMD is a war fought to depose Hussein in the name of nullifying his WMD. And if Hussein in desperation usedhis WMD against Israel, Israel has promised to retaliate, perhaps with unconventional weapons of its own –with unimaginable consequences for the whole region and the world.

C10.Bush claims he does not need specific Security Council authorization to legally attack Iraq. Is this claimtrue?

No. The UN Charter prohibits nationsfrom using or threatening force against other nations with only two exceptions.

First, Article 51 permitsself-defense, but only "when an armed attack occurs." Clearly, there has been no armed attackby Iraq against the United States. Some argue that self-defense includes the right to strike an enemywho is about to launch an attack. Clearly there is no basis for claiming that an Iraqi attack is imminent. IfU.S. claims that Iraq might have nuclear weapons by the end of the decade are taken as adequate grounds forallowing anticipatory self-defense, then think about what the world would be like. Surely, Lebanon wouldhave the right to attack Israel, and vice versa, and Pakistan would have the right to attack India, and viceversa, and indeed, just about any country would have the right to attack just about any other country. It wasprecisely this sort of international lawlessness that the UN Charter was meant to prevent.

The second exception to the Charter'sprohibition against the use or threat of force is action taken under the authority of Chapter VII. That is,the Security Council may, under Chapter VII, authorize the use of force in pursuit of international peace andsecurity. So if the Security Council were to pass a resolution authorizing an attack on Iraq, an attack wouldbe legal (which is not the same as just -- see question A5 above). But there has (as of yetanyway) been no resolution authorizing an attack. Back in 1990, after all sorts of bribery and pressure fromthe United States, the Council did authorize action in resolution 678 to expel Iraq from Kuwait. U.S.officials claim that this resolution is enough to legitimize U.S. military action against Iraq today, but thatis patently preposterous. Resolution 678 authorized member states to use all necessary means "to upholdand implement resolution 660 (1990) and all subsequent relevant resolutions." Resolution 660 called forIraq to withdraw from Kuwait and the subsequent relevant resolutions are listed at the beginning of 678 andconsist of the series of resolutions relating to Iraq's invasion of Kuwait passed between resolutions 660(Aug. 2) and 678 (Nov. 29, 1990). U.S. officials maintain that "all subsequent resolutions" includesanything having to do with Iraq passed after Aug. 2, 1990 and thus includes all the post-Gulf Warresolutions relating to arms inspectors. Such a claim cannot be taken seriously. Resolutions don't authorizethe use of force to uphold resolutions not yet passed. And they don't authorize individual member states todetermine for themselves whether Iraq is in compliance with any particular resolutions. That's theresponsibility of the Security Council.

After the Gulf War, resolution 687-- accepted by Iraq -- mandated the destruction of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.But nothing in that resolution authorized any use of force or the right of any individual state to determineIraqi compliance. If the U.S. view prevailed, then Israel, for example, could legally attack Iraq at any timeafter November 1990 -- last year, last week -- if it decided that Iraq wasn'tcomplying with some subsequent resolution. Could this possibly be what the Council intended?

A final U.S. argument is that Iraqremains in violation of some 1990 resolutions relating to Kuwaiti prisoners and property and thus can still bebrought to account under resolution 678. But, as Phyllis Bennis has noted, at the March 2002 Arab LeagueSummit, every Arab state including Kuwait signed an all-sided rapprochement with Iraq, includingspecific arrangements for the return of Kuwait's stolen National Archives and prisoner exchanges.

Thus there is no legal basis for aU.S. attack on Iraq without explicit Security Council authorization. We reiterate, however, that SecurityCouncil authorization determines legality, not morality.

C11.Has Iraq violated many Security Council resolutions?

Yes. But it is not the only country todo so. Other countries, including close U.S. allies like Israel and Turkey, have been in violation of SecurityCouncil resolutions. (See Stephen Zunes's detailedaccounting)   And, of course, the number of violations by U.S. allies would be far larger if it were not for the factthat the Security Council has a totally undemocratic voting procedure that gives Washington (and four othernations) the power to veto any resolutions of which it disapproves.

That others violate UN resolutions isnot a justification for Iraq to do so. But the contradiction is relevant to note for it gives the lie to theBush administration claim that it is motivated by a concern for upholding the UN and international law.Moreover, there is not a little irony in the fact that the Bush administration has declared that in order toenforce adherence by Iraq to the UN, it is prepared to go to war against Iraq, even if that war is notauthorized by the Security Council, and hence in clear violation of the UN Charter.
 

C12. What are the likelyconsequences of a U.S. attack on Iraq? On the people of Iraq? On the prospects for democracy in the MiddleEast?

Administrationofficials assure us that all the consequences will be positive. The Iraqi people will welcome their nearlybloodless deliverance and democracy will spread throughout the region. These are possible outcomes, but thefirst is by no means certain and the second extremely unlikely. Under some scenarios, Iraqi troops will allrefuse to fight and Saddam Hussein will be defeated swiftly. But no sane military planner will proceed on theassumption that everything will go right. One cannot exclude the possibility of intense urban fighting (withthe U.S. using overwhelming airpower to obliterate all resistance), which would mean immense civiliancasualties. As for Middle Eastern democracy, the corrupt authoritarian regimes of the region will probably beable to hold on to power by the imposition of greater repression on their populations – that is, by becomingless rather than more democratic. And if the threat to these regimes gets more serious, we can expect to seeWashington increase its support for dictatorial rule, for there’s no chance that the U.S. would tolerate anew government in Jordan or Egypt or Saudi Arabia that came to power by opposing the U.S. war in Iraq
 

C13. Are the claims about civilian deaths in Iraq due to the sanctions exaggerated? And isn't Saddam Husseinresponsible for the humanitarian crisis by his diverting of money to his weapons programs?

There is debate both on the number ofdeaths in Iraq under the sanctions and the cause of those deaths. Save the Children UK and a coalition ofother NGOs has recently issued a report that summarizes the conflicting estimates regarding "excessmortality":

"UNICEF,in a widely publicised study carried out jointly with the Iraq Ministry of Health, determined that 500,000children under five years old had died in "excess" numbers in Iraq between 1991 and 1998, thoughUNICEF insisted that this number could not all be ascribed directly to sanctions. UNICEF used surveys of itsown as part of the basic research and involved respected outside experts in designing the study and evaluatingthe data. UNICEF remains confident in the accuracy of its numbers and points out that they have never beensubject to a scientific challenge.

"Prof. Richard Garfield ofColumbia University carried out a separate and well regarded study of excess mortality in Iraq. Garfieldconsidered the same age group and the same time period as the UNICEF study. He minimized reliance on officialIraqi statistics by using many different statistical sources, including independent surveys in Iraq andinferences from comparative public health data from other countries. Garfield concluded that there had been aminimum of 100,000 excess deaths and that the more likely number was 227,000. Garfield now thinks the mostprobable number of deaths of under-five children from August 1991 to June 2002 would be about 400,000." (IraqSanctions: Humanitarian Implications and Options for the Future, 8/6/02) 

Whether the UNICEF figures are corrector the more conservative Garfield figures, either way we are talking about a massive human catastrophe. UsingGarfield's estimate, more Iraqi children under the age of five have died from the sanctions than in a hundredWorld Trade Center attacks.

Some supporters of the sanctions arguethat any humanitarian suffering is a result not of the sanctions but of Hussein's manipulations of thesanctions regime. There is no doubt that Hussein has a callous disregard for his people's hardships and bearssome of the responsibility for the situation. However, as the Select Committee on International Development ofthe British House of Commons noted (1/27/00), this does not "entirely excuse the international communityfrom a part in the suffering of Iraqis. A sanctions regime which relies on the good faith of Saddam Hussein isfundamentally flawed." Two UN humanitarian coordinators for Iraq (Denis Halliday in 1997 and Hans VonSponeck in 2000) resigned to protest the inhumanity of the sanctions.

Not all U.S. officials have chosen todeny the impact of the sanctions. In May 1996, Leslie Stahl of 60 Minutes asked Madeleine Albright, then U.S.ambassador to the United Nations, "We have heard that half a million children have died . . . is theprice worth it?" Albright replied, "I think this is a very hard choice, but the price -- we thinkthe price is worth it."

The sanctions have undergone variouschanges, but in all versions the people of Iraq have been the victims, while Hussein and his inner circlehave, if anything, been strengthened -- the exact opposite of how sanctions ought to be targeted.
 

C14. Aren't the sanctions essentialto prevent Iraq from developing weapons of mass destruction?

Not if we are to believe the U.S. andBritish governments, which claim that Hussein has been able to rebuild his WMD programs by easily evading thesanctions.

Blocking weapons transfers and WMDcomponents makes good sense -- and not just to Iraq. But the sanctions regime in Iraq blocks farmore than military supplies. In July 2002, $5.4 billion worth of goods were being held up, almost always atthe insistence of the United States or Britain, covering such supplies as water purification systems, sewagepipes, medicines, hospital equipment, electricity and communications infrastructure, and oil field equipment.
 

C15. Christopher Hitchens says:'you can't subject the Iraqi people to the cruelty of sanctions for so long while leaving the despot inplace.' Is this an argument for "regime change" and war?

Hitchens would have us believe thathaving subjected the population of Iraq to sanctions that have caused the premature deaths of hundreds ofthousands of civilians, the solution is for the perpetrator of this mayhem to now invade, and add additionalcarnage, and claim by that act to have become a moral agent.

Suppose the mafia has been conductinga reign of terror on a neighborhood in the South Bronx for ten years because somewhere inside thisneighborhood an ex mafia lieutenant acting as a local lord had decided to keep more of the take than the mafiadons felt he was entitled to. Would we call for the mafia to send in its heavily armed thugs, shooting theirway through the dwellings, until they managed to find and kill the rogue local lord -- with theintent, of course, of placing a new mafia lieutenant in the saddle? Shouldn't our call be, instead,"Mafia Out, Rogue Out," and down the road, "No More Mafia"?

But might the residents of the SouthBronx (or Iraq) be better off under a new mafia lieutenant than remaining subjected to the mafia reign ofterror (or the U.S. sanctions)? That will depend on the human costs of the campaign to kill the rogue locallord, but even if the costs turn out to be less than the continued reign of terror – which no one can assure-- consider the horrible precedent that Hitchens's argument would establish. Do we really want a world whereIndia arrogates to itself the right to invade Pakistan in order to protect the Pakistani population from somemurderous Indian policy? Should we have cheered Indonesia's invasion of East Timor as a humane alternative tocontinued Indonesian efforts to starve the East Timorese?
 

C16. Who authorized the U.S. andBritish air forces to patrol the no-fly zones over Iraq?

The U.S. and Britain. In April 1991,when Hussein was crushing uprisings in the north and south of the country, the UN passed a resolution callingon Iraq to cease its repression and urging member states to provide humanitarian aid to refugees. Embarrassedand under political pressure for allowing the uprisings to be crushed, President Bush senior ordered air dropsto Kurdish refugees on the Turkish border and then ground troops which assisted the refugees as part ofOperation Provide Comfort. The U.S., Britain, and France demanded Iraq observe a no-fly zone in thearea, and when the troops were withdrawn, the no-fly zone was maintained, and patrolled by coalition airforces. Nothing in the UN resolution authorized Operation Provide Comfort, the no-fly zones, or the airpatrols. The no-fly zone was ostensibly to protect the Kurds, but the protection was rather limited: itonly applied to Iraqi attacks, not to Turkish air or ground incursions into Kurdish areas of Iraq-- which have never been protested or opposed by the United States. The boundaries of the northernno-fly zone do not coincide with the boundaries of the autonomous Kurdish-held area. In 1992, asimilar no-fly zone was established in the south, even though Iraqi forces had not withdrawn from thearea as they had from the north. France withdrew from participation in the no-fly zones and since thenWashington and London alone have unilaterally extended the boundaries of the two no-fly zones andunilaterally expanded their rules for engagement, allowing broad attacks on Iraqi installations if the planesare fired upon.

The initial no-fly zone in thenorth may have played some humanitarian role with respect to the Kurds. But essentially the zones areunilateral U.S. and British impositions, without any basis in international law, designed to put pressure onSaddam Hussein. Under the new rules of engagement, they represent the opening salvos of a unilateral U.S.-U.K.war.
 

C17. Do the American people supporta war against Iraq?

Yes and no. If asked do you supportthe United States preventing Iraq from killing you or your parents or your children, or indeed from killingeven just those people who live in New York City, Chicago, and San Francisco, a considerable majority ofAmericans will most certainly say yes.

On the other hand, if they are asked,should the United States blast Iraq -- a country it has already devastated for over a dozen years withhundreds of thousands of casualties -- into the dark ages, with countless further victims -- in order to makethe point that we are callous enough and violent enough to do it -- and to steal for ourselves direct controlover the resources of another country, it is reasonable to guess that a considerable majority of Americanswould say no.

Currently, as we write, reportssuggest that about 70% of the British population, by polls, opposes the war plans, despite the Britishgovernment being the only one in the world solidly behind Bush. This is very interesting. Two things seem toexplain the British being more anti-war than Americans. One, the planes that crashed into buildings on 9-11 didn't do so in London. And two, there is in Britain amass-circulation press which is conveying actualtruths and morally civilized reactions to the on-going events, more widely than these are being conveyedin the U.S. Reaction in the U.S. is definitely behind. But it is also catching up.

C18. Why does the U.S. governmentwant to go to war against Iraq?

Because Iraq's leader is not inWashington's hip pocket anymore, where he was, when Washington liked him quite a lot, while he was committinghis worst crimes.

Because underneath Iraq is the world'ssecond largest reserve of oil, which the U.S. government would like to control, particularly given theinstability of Saudi subservience.

Because around the world are countryafter country who are suffering the accumulating damage of corporate globalization and being pressured bytheir populations to extricate from the American Empire's hold over their policies, and waging violentdestruction on Iraq sends a very loud message regarding just how high the price will be for extrication fromU.S. domination.

Because anything remotely resembling alegal and moral approach to international problems is ridiculed and rejected by U.S. elites because legal andmoral approaches to international problems would, in case after case, lead to outcomes contrary to theiragendas and interests.

And becauseintense focus on Iraq is serviceable to Bush and Co. seeking to divert attention from the condition of the U.Seconomy and corporate corruption leading up to the November U.S. elections, and hoping to undermine socialspending that is strongly favored by the population, in the interest of tax cuts for the rich, which isstrongly opposed by the population.

Courtesy, Znet