Indo-Pak Deal To Enter NSG

An India, agreeing not to block Pakistan’s entry into the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group in the near future, could well be a way to allow Delhi a toe-hold inside this elite club.

The Indian promise, sources say, could well convince China, one of the main ‘nay sayers’ in the Group, not to block Delhi’s application for a membership from being admitted and starting the process at the NSG Summit beginning in Seoul from June 23.

India may also have to assure Beijing that it will not block China’s entry in the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), a grouping in which India became a member some weeks back.

But indications suggest that even if the Indian application is accepted, it may not be until November—when the Group has its next major meeting—for India to be a full-member of the NSG.

Meanwhile, Pakistan—with obvious Chinese support—will have to convince all the other members in the NSG that it too, deserves a place in this high-profile Group. If that happens and all the others in the NSG was supportive of Pakistan’s candidacy, then India, according to sources, will not try and scuttle it.

A conciliatory move from India towards China was evident on Sunday, June 19 when foreign minister Sushma Swaraj told newsmen that Delhi is trying to convince Beijing to be supportive of India’s aspiration to be member of the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group.

This was a clear shift from the earlier Indian stand as the impression given by South Block was that India’s entry into the 48-member Nuclear Suppliers’ Group was being blocked by Chinese reluctance. China had insisted that those who have not signed the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty—like India —cannot be a member of the NSG. Many in the Indian establishment saw this as a Chinese ploy to prevent India, especially if China’s close ally Pakistan, which also wanted to be in the NSG, was kept out.

Sources pointed out that the criterion of being a NPT signatory to be a NSG member as raised by China, cannot be taken too seriously since France was admitted in the Group much before it signed the NPT. But China will have to be assured that once India gets in, it will not try and block Pakistan’s membership in the Group.

However, all decisions in the NSG are by consensus. Therefore, all the 48 members of the Group, particularly China, will have to agree for India to be in it.

According to Swaraj, the government is “hopeful of success in convincing China.” She confidently stressed, “I think a consensus is being made, and I don’t think any country will break that consensus and this time we will get the NSG membership.”

The assessment stems from the fact that if all other 47 members in the NSG support India’s entry into the Group then China is unlikely to be the sole dissenter. However, this will have to be backed by an Indian assurance not to block Pakistan’s entry in the NSG in future.

As part of convincing China to support India’s membership, Delhi had sent President Pranab Mukherjee and foreign secretary S. Jaishankar to Beijing to engage with the Chinese leadership.

But two days before the foreign minister’s press conference India also completed the trilateral Malabar exercise with the American and Japanese navies near the East and South China Seas.

The purpose of the Malabar exercise so close to the Chinese coastline and its timing has raised some questions. What is the signal that India wants to convey to the Chinese through this trilateral naval exercise with the US and Japanese navies? And how does it expect Beijing to react to it especially since it is keen that China too, supports its NSG candidacy?

A meeting between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization slated for later in the week, therefore, gathers special ignificance.

India and Pakistan, both are being admitted in the SCO at this Summit of the Organization. But the major focus will be on the Modi-Xi meeting as it will coincide with the Seoul NSG Summit.

Modi’s recent visit to the US and the manner in which he was being wooed by President Barack Obama and the Americans was keenly watched by Beijing. The signals coming out of Washington and the subsequent Malabar naval exercise in China’s backyard, had raised quite a few eyebrows in the Beijing establishment.

However, so far the Chinese regard these as India’s attempt to create the required strategic space for itself to deal effectively and meaningfully with Beijing.

In a sense, therefore, India wants to lob the diplomatic ball in China’s court. If the Indian Prime Minister expresses his keenness for a NSG membership and Beijing’s support in that effort, it will definitely become the Chinese President’s call either to acquiesce to that request or to turn it down.

The course that Sino-Indian relations take in future, therefore, will depend a lot on the outcome of the Tashkent meeting.