The Options Before Abdullahs And Muftis Have Shrunk

Since the BJP government came to power at the Centre in 2014, two regional parties of Jammu and Kashmir -- Peoples Democratic Party and National Conference -- have been warning the Centre against any move to tinker with Article 35A of the Constitution of India.

The Article, now removed by the government along with Article 370, would debar anyone, who was not a resident of Jammu and Kashmir, to own land in the region. Even after the alliance to form a government between the BJP and the PDP, groups affiliated with the RSS went to the courts in Delhi to seek the removal of Article 35A.

Then Chief Minister Mehbooba Mufti went to Delhi to meet Prime Minister Narendra Modi and express her fierce opposition to any move by the government to remove Article 35A.

When Jammu Kashmir Study Centre filed a case against the Article in the Apex Court, the PDP and National Conference went to fight the case. During the hearings, the then advocate general of the State had prepared a long rejoinder highlighting that the removal of Article 35A would be unconstitutional and illegal. The BJP didn’t oppose the advocate general’s move, even though it was part of the State government.

After the BJP pulled out of the J&K alliance with PDP in June 2018, the NC and the PDP apprehended the SC might strike down Article 35A. On August 5, the Union Home Minister, Amit Shah, announced the scrapping of Articles 35A and 370 in Parliament, splitting the State into two union territories.

Two days ahead of the decision, large scale deployment of the security forces and fear psychosis had prompted National Conference president Farooq Abdullah and Vice-President Omar Abdullah to meet the Prime Minister and seek assurances on the special status of the State.

“They thought either the BJP would remove Article 35A or trifurcate the state. They didn’t know the BJP government would go beyond. It shocked the mainstream here,” says a political analyst, wishing anonymity. The government, according to observers, has left little option for NC, PDP or other smaller regional parties like Peoples Conference of Sajad Gani Lone and Peoples United Forum (PUF) of Shah Faesal. “I think all of them might still be in a state of shock over what has happened,” the analyst said.

“Jammu and Kashmir is a security State. The chief minister of J&K has a very high profile. He or she is the head of the Unified Command Council comprising the Army, the Police and the Paramilitary forces. The person also would talk about external affairs. All of sudden you have turned the state into a Union Territory with a Lt. Governor at its head,” says an official who did not want to be named.

It looks impossible for leaders like Farooq Abdullah, Mehbooba Mufti, Omar Abdullah or for that matter Sajad Lone and Shah Faesal to agree to become a chief minister under present arrangements. Predictable action plan for the parties would be to fight for statehood, as the Prime Minister Narendra Modi has said that the Union Territory status is not permanent.

However, the NC and the PDP are unlikely to take the predictable path. “Omar Abdullah has repeatedly said that if Article 370 is removed, the only thing to talk about between New Delhi and J&K is the Instrument of Accession, which was conditional. I doubt whether he would take this position,” says G. N Rantanpuri, former MP from South Kashmir region.

Rantanpuri, who has quit the NC, says since August 5, the MPs of the National Conference have not resigned from Parliament and have not gone to the Court challenging preventive custody of the NC President and the vice-president.

“I saw a short interview of Dr. Farooq Abdullah on the NDTV after his house arrest in which he was talking to India and asking the country “we have fought many battles together.” I think Farooq Abdullah, unlike his father Sheikh Mohammad Abdullah, who after his arrest in 1953 started a plebiscite front and laid the foundation of long resistance, may reconcile with the present position,” Rantanpuri says.

Former NC legislator, Kabir Pathan finds that insulting. “They heaped insult upon insult on us. They have removed Articles 370, 35A and turned the State into a Union Territory after subjecting people of the state to a clampdown snapping all communication. They have gone further. They have arrested Dr Farooq Abdullah. How would we reconcile with all this?” he says.

Other NC leaders, who are not in the preventive custody, avoid media and refuse to talk saying that till Dr Abdullah and Omar are released they would not be in a position to reveal what the party’s action plan is likely to be.

While Mehbooba Mufti openly described an alliance with the BJP as having a “cup of poison”, she often said that if the Centre removes Article 370, J&K’s relationship with India would be over. The country would have to re-negotiate the terms and conditions with J&K.

Observers here say Mehbooba, who took three months after the death of her father Mufti Mohammad Sayeed, to become chief minister in 2016, wouldn’t easily agree with the present set-up. Her last tweet after the removal of Article 370 was that India would be seen as “occupational force” in J&K now. That is enough indication of the path she is likely to take.

“BJP has left no option for the NC, PDP and others, except to resist. With one stroke the government has pushed all pro-India mainstream parties to the margins. Shah Faesal has rightly said that the choice for the mainstream pro-India parties in Kashmir now is either to be separatists or stooges. I think no one among established parties would like themselves to seen as stooges,” says a senior journalist.

Speaking on the autonomy resolution in 2000, which was passed by the Assembly after a long debate lasting two sessions, Farooq Abdullah had said: “I want to ask why our Prime Minister showed a willingness to have negotiations with our party only…they know NC is the only party which right from the beginning is pro-India and would remain like that.”

Farooq’s stance was known as he was seen as a staunch Indian in Kashmir seeking certain concession for the State under Article 370. According to the party, over 4,000 NC workers were killed by militants. After his release, it has to be seen what kind of politics Farooq and Omar would practice.