India And The Obama Presidency

(These comments were sent by me in response to a query from a leadingWashington DC-based think tank on Indian perceptions of President-elect BarackObama)
 
There were initial concerns in India over the likely implications to India'snational interests during an Obama Presidency. These concerns arose from the following factors:

• Obama's initial opposition in the Senate to the Indo-US  civilian nuclear co-operation agreement, though he subsequently supported it.
  
  
• The reportedly active role played by Richard Holbroke and Madeleine Albright in advising him on foreign policy issues during the election campaign. Both were seen in India as advocates of a more intrusive role by the US in matters such as a settlement of the Kashmir issue and addressing the Pakistani concerns over the increasing Indian presence in Afghanistan.

The fact that a large number of influential Americans of Indian origin hadsupported  the Bush administration and that many of them--except Americans of Indian origin in Chicago-- had switched their support to HillaryClinton during the primaries also influenced Indian perceptions of Obama.

These concerns are likely to be mitigated by reports that Obama is likely tonominate Hillary Clinton as his Secretary of State. She enjoys a positive imagein the Indo-American community as well as in India. It is remembered that theIndo-American community played an active role in her campaign to win theelection to the Senate. They remained loyal to her during the entire primarycampaign and switched their support to Obama only after she had withdrawn fromthe race.

There were ups and downs in India's relations with the US during thepresidency of Bill Clinton. During his first term he was viewed as insensitiveto India's interests and concerns. This perception got strengthened after hisnegative reaction to India's nuclear tests in 1998. The  Kargil militaryconflict between India and Pakistan in 1999 saw a thawing of the coldvibrations, which had set in between India and the US. What was seen as hissupport for India and his criticism of Pakistan for violating the Line ofControl (LOC) in Jammu & Kashmir and the active behind the scene role playedby him in pressuring Pakistan to withdraw its troops from Indian territory inthe Kargil area contributed to a change in the Indian perceptions from negativeto positive. This change was reflected in the extraordinarily warm welcome hereceived during his visit to India in  March 2000.

Despite this, the Clinton Administration, like other DemocraticAdministrations that preceded it, thought of  India more tactically thanstrategically--more in terms of American business interests in catering toIndia's large middle class than in terms of the role which India can  andought to play in the Asian--and ultimately global-- stage in the years to come.

It goes to the credit of President George Bush and his Secretary of StateCondolleezza Rice that they started thinking of India more strategically thantactically-- as an Asian power on par with China, as a power to be reckoned withand as a power with a tremendous potential for playing a benign role on theworld stage. The remarkable improvement in Indo-US relations under theinspiration of Bush and Rice-- adequately reciprocated by Prime MinisterManmohan Singh-- has been a turning point in Indo-US relations since Indiabecame independent in 1947.

Will Obama continue with the Bush-Rice policy of  dealing with Indiastrategically and strengthening their relationship or will he revert to thetraditional tactical Democratic reflex? This was the question that bothered many Indian opinion-makers as they heard with concern speculation about thelikelihood of Holbroke or Albright becoming the Secretary of State. There is asigh of relief over reports of the likelihood of  Hillary Clinton takingover as the Secretary of State. She has enjoyed positive vibrations withinfluential Indians and Indo-Americans. There is a confidence that Indo-USrelations will be safe in her hands. One has to wait and see whether this beliefproves to be correct or mere wishful-thinking.

B. Raman is Additional Secretary (retd), Cabinet Secretariat, Govt. ofIndia, New Delhi, and, presently, Director, Institute For Topical Studies,Chennai. He is also associated with the Chennai Centre For China Studies.